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It would actually cost a lot less to use renewables and storage than a bunch of nuclear. For a completely decarbinized grid, there are two paths: 1) 100% renew

It would actually cost a lot less to use renewables and storage than a bunch of nuclear. For a completely decarbinized grid, there are two paths: 1) 100% renewables plus storage, or 2) ~90% renewable plus storage, and 10% nuclear/advanced geothermal. There's lots of debate about which one would be cheapest. But the true answer depends on how the cost curve of technologies develops over the coming 20 years. (Personally, I think 100% renewables will win because projections of all experts severely overestimate storage and renewables costs, while simultaneously severely underestimating the costs of nuclear. Renewables and storage are always over delivering, while nuclear always under delivers. So I think that trend will continue...) You won't hear much about this in the popular media though, because they are too afraid of offending conservatives with politically incorrect facts. Sites like Ars Technica cover it though: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22092022/inside-clean-energy-last-10-percent/ https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22092022/inside-clean-ene...

realusername 1y ago
> Renewables and storage are always over delivering, while nuclear always under delivers Well no, storage would need another 100x improvement for being usable in a 100% renewable scenario in any country you have any sort of winter. Say what you want on nuclear but we have example of countries which managed it successfully, for renewables, we still haven't.
- ViewTrick1002 1y ago
  Which is entering emergency reserve territory. Nuclear power CAPEX to build an emergency reserve would seem to be utterly insane. The easy solution is gas turbines. We already have them and as aviation and maritime shipping decarbonize utilize the same fuel. Whether that is syngas, ammonia or biofuels. Or earmark the biofuels for grid usage. Today the US produces enough ethanol used as a blend in for gasoline to run the grid without help for 14 days. As we switch to BEVs repurpose that for grid duties while ensuring the inputs also decarbonize.
  - realusername 1y ago
    I'm not sure I get your comment, France has 2 years worth of uranium ready to use + 5 years of uranium not enriched. I don't think there's any other form of energy in the country which has a 7 years emergency reserve. > As we switch to BEVs repurpose that for grid duties while ensuring the inputs also decarbonize. BEV will make the storage problem worse because they consume more in winter and you can't tell people how to use their own cars.
    - ViewTrick1002 1y ago
      The uranium reserves does not help when a winter storm rolls through and grid usage spikes. That is "emergency reserves" or the completely black and white "must work 100% or completely unusable" statement you led with. Take a look at France. They generally export quite large amounts of electricity. But whenever a cold spell hits that export flow is reversed to imports and they have to start up local fossil gas and coal based production. What they have done is that they have outsourced the management of their grid to their neighbors and rely on 35 GW of fossil based electricity production both inside France and their neighbors grids. Because their nuclear power produces too much when no one wants the electricity and too little when it is actually needed. Their neighbors are able to both absorb the cold spell which very likely hits them as well, their own grid as the French exports stops and they start exporting to France. > BEV will make the storage problem worse because they consume more in winter and you can't tell people how to use their own cars. I don't think you quite get how the grid works? BEVs are like the ultimate consumers for a renewable grid since they can utilize surpluses matching supply and demand. Everyone I know with a BEV and an hourly contract times their charging to perfection to reduce costs. They are of course willing to pay a premium to charge now if their schedule demands it, but that is a tiny tiny subset of the household BEV fleet.
      - realusername 1y ago
        > Take a look at France. They generally export quite large amounts of electricity. But whenever a cold spell hits that export flow is reversed to imports and they have to start up local fossil gas and coal based production. That's the opposite, France is exporting in winter and imports in summer whenever the Germany overproduces solar and doesn't know what to do with it. So for now it's France which helps to stabilize the grid of its neighbors. There's even price caps against that because France would bleed other countries in winter otherwise. > don't think you quite get how the grid works? BEVs are like the ultimate consumers for a renewable grid since they can utilize surpluses matching supply and demand. No they can't, you have to understand how the EU consumption works, surplus are in summer and max demand is in winter. Nobody is going to store electricity in summer in their car to use it in winter, this is nonsense.
- pfdietz 1y ago
  It sounds like you're making the usual idiot argument that batteries are the only storage technology and would be used for seasonal storage. That's not how it would work. There are far better -- orders of magnitude better -- storage options over timescales of many months.
ZeroGravitas 1y ago
Yes, this is the real answer. Nuclear, which is currently dropping as a percentage of global electricity demand and is now under 10% needs a miracle to reverse that and maybe reach 15% if everything goes well for it. Meanwhile renewables are surging and every relevant expert suggests they'll dominate the future. https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/the-world-is-getting-more-of-its-electricity-from-renewables-but-less-from-nuclear-power https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/the-world-is-gettin... The graph without the relatively flat hydro is even more stark. The stuff people say about nuclear on this forum is on the level of flat earthism and they seem totally unashamed of this.
- nec4b 1y ago
  Would point to the law of economics which says only renewables can get cheaper with investments? And which law of physics makes renewables work in places, which have little wind and solar?
  - ZeroGravitas 1y ago
    What percentage of the earth's surface have little wind and solar? What percentage of the human population live there? They have solar farms in Alaska and the Antarctic because it's cheaper than shipping in diesel for 6 months of the year. And the law of economics making modular renewables cheaper is Wright's Law: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effect
    - nec4b 1y ago
      >>What percentage of the earth's surface have little wind and solar? What percentage of the human population live there? Large parts of USA, Canada, non Mediterranean Europe and northern half of Asia. A lot of people live there. >> And the law of economics making modular renewables cheaper is Wright's Law: I asked which economic law makes ONLY renewables getting cheaper with time. Why couldn't nuclear get cheaper in time?
      - 1y ago
LtdJorge 1y ago
> projections of all experts severely overestimate storage and renewables costs, while simultaneously severely underestimating the costs of nuclear Does that mean you’re expert-er?
- epistasis 1y ago
  I expect that if I had to put numbers on things, I would be subject to the same biases as everyone else. Or perhaps not, sometimes not being an "expert" in the traditional sense can remove the biases of an industry. Sci-fi author Ramez Naam had some of the most accurate forecasts in the past by doing the simplest thing possible: looking at the past curve and extending it. That is probably the simple type of projection I would make! https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23185166 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23185166 The IEA and EIA are two very respectable organizations that make comically bad projections, just absolutely awful. I know I could beat their projections! Jenny Chase is a highly prominent solar analyst that has some great anecdotes about how wrong solar estimates always are, and she challenges that new analysts face, but I'm having trouble finding the podcast right now... in any case always read the Jenny Chase megathreads on the state of solar or her interviews in order to get some really great insights into what's going on. In any case the rate of learning in solar tech far exceeds the expectations of most "energy" experts, and also usually exceeds the expectations of even the solar experts.

realusername 1y ago

> Renewables and storage are always over delivering, while nuclear always under delivers Well no, storage would need another 100x improvement for being usable in a 100% renewable scenario in any country you have any sort of winter. Say what you want on nuclear but we have example of countries which managed it successfully, for renewables, we still haven't.

ViewTrick1002 1y ago
Which is entering emergency reserve territory. Nuclear power CAPEX to build an emergency reserve would seem to be utterly insane. The easy solution is gas turbines. We already have them and as aviation and maritime shipping decarbonize utilize the same fuel. Whether that is syngas, ammonia or biofuels. Or earmark the biofuels for grid usage. Today the US produces enough ethanol used as a blend in for gasoline to run the grid without help for 14 days. As we switch to BEVs repurpose that for grid duties while ensuring the inputs also decarbonize.
- realusername 1y ago
  I'm not sure I get your comment, France has 2 years worth of uranium ready to use + 5 years of uranium not enriched. I don't think there's any other form of energy in the country which has a 7 years emergency reserve. > As we switch to BEVs repurpose that for grid duties while ensuring the inputs also decarbonize. BEV will make the storage problem worse because they consume more in winter and you can't tell people how to use their own cars.
  - ViewTrick1002 1y ago
    The uranium reserves does not help when a winter storm rolls through and grid usage spikes. That is "emergency reserves" or the completely black and white "must work 100% or completely unusable" statement you led with. Take a look at France. They generally export quite large amounts of electricity. But whenever a cold spell hits that export flow is reversed to imports and they have to start up local fossil gas and coal based production. What they have done is that they have outsourced the management of their grid to their neighbors and rely on 35 GW of fossil based electricity production both inside France and their neighbors grids. Because their nuclear power produces too much when no one wants the electricity and too little when it is actually needed. Their neighbors are able to both absorb the cold spell which very likely hits them as well, their own grid as the French exports stops and they start exporting to France. > BEV will make the storage problem worse because they consume more in winter and you can't tell people how to use their own cars. I don't think you quite get how the grid works? BEVs are like the ultimate consumers for a renewable grid since they can utilize surpluses matching supply and demand. Everyone I know with a BEV and an hourly contract times their charging to perfection to reduce costs. They are of course willing to pay a premium to charge now if their schedule demands it, but that is a tiny tiny subset of the household BEV fleet.
    - realusername 1y ago
      > Take a look at France. They generally export quite large amounts of electricity. But whenever a cold spell hits that export flow is reversed to imports and they have to start up local fossil gas and coal based production. That's the opposite, France is exporting in winter and imports in summer whenever the Germany overproduces solar and doesn't know what to do with it. So for now it's France which helps to stabilize the grid of its neighbors. There's even price caps against that because France would bleed other countries in winter otherwise. > don't think you quite get how the grid works? BEVs are like the ultimate consumers for a renewable grid since they can utilize surpluses matching supply and demand. No they can't, you have to understand how the EU consumption works, surplus are in summer and max demand is in winter. Nobody is going to store electricity in summer in their car to use it in winter, this is nonsense.
pfdietz 1y ago
It sounds like you're making the usual idiot argument that batteries are the only storage technology and would be used for seasonal storage. That's not how it would work. There are far better -- orders of magnitude better -- storage options over timescales of many months.

ZeroGravitas 1y ago

Yes, this is the real answer. Nuclear, which is currently dropping as a percentage of global electricity demand and is now under 10% needs a miracle to reverse that and maybe reach 15% if everything goes well for it. Meanwhile renewables are surging and every relevant expert suggests they'll dominate the future. https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/the-world-is-getting-more-of-its-electricity-from-renewables-but-less-from-nuclear-power https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/the-world-is-gettin... The graph without the relatively flat hydro is even more stark. The stuff people say about nuclear on this forum is on the level of flat earthism and they seem totally unashamed of this.

nec4b 1y ago
Would point to the law of economics which says only renewables can get cheaper with investments? And which law of physics makes renewables work in places, which have little wind and solar?
- ZeroGravitas 1y ago
  What percentage of the earth's surface have little wind and solar? What percentage of the human population live there? They have solar farms in Alaska and the Antarctic because it's cheaper than shipping in diesel for 6 months of the year. And the law of economics making modular renewables cheaper is Wright's Law: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effect
  - nec4b 1y ago
    >>What percentage of the earth's surface have little wind and solar? What percentage of the human population live there? Large parts of USA, Canada, non Mediterranean Europe and northern half of Asia. A lot of people live there. >> And the law of economics making modular renewables cheaper is Wright's Law: I asked which economic law makes ONLY renewables getting cheaper with time. Why couldn't nuclear get cheaper in time?
    - 1y ago

LtdJorge 1y ago

> projections of all experts severely overestimate storage and renewables costs, while simultaneously severely underestimating the costs of nuclear Does that mean you’re expert-er?

epistasis 1y ago
I expect that if I had to put numbers on things, I would be subject to the same biases as everyone else. Or perhaps not, sometimes not being an "expert" in the traditional sense can remove the biases of an industry. Sci-fi author Ramez Naam had some of the most accurate forecasts in the past by doing the simplest thing possible: looking at the past curve and extending it. That is probably the simple type of projection I would make! https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23185166 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23185166 The IEA and EIA are two very respectable organizations that make comically bad projections, just absolutely awful. I know I could beat their projections! Jenny Chase is a highly prominent solar analyst that has some great anecdotes about how wrong solar estimates always are, and she challenges that new analysts face, but I'm having trouble finding the podcast right now... in any case always read the Jenny Chase megathreads on the state of solar or her interviews in order to get some really great insights into what's going on. In any case the rate of learning in solar tech far exceeds the expectations of most "energy" experts, and also usually exceeds the expectations of even the solar experts.