5 ms·

> NATO countries are essentially defenseless against that I think the plan is that the war is over in 10 minutes ... so why care.

kevin_thibedeau 1y ago
I heard it would take 24 hours...
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- somenameforme 1y ago
  He's referring to nukes. War between NATO and Russia is a non-starter because there's no viable way it doesn't almost immediately escalate to nukes, especially when all parties would be aware of this creating even more an incentive to be the first to try, and inevitably fail, at a preemptive nuclear strike to completely disable the opposing forces' nuclear options.
  - rightbyte 1y ago
    Ye there are so much romantic fantasies roaming around I don't recognize the 'Overton window' anymore.
  - tim333 1y ago
    Russia may do low level stuff like drones into Poland that is not bad enough to launch a nuclear war over.
  - ponector 1y ago
    But why? We have many examples of war activities between states with nukes. If tomorrow russia will occupy three NATO countries: Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia - nobody is going to use nukes.
    - somenameforme 1y ago
      We only have one direct example - Pakistan and India, and nukes came out within hours of the conflict starting, and it was settled rapidly afterwards. And I do think conflict in the Baltics would leak to nuclear war rapidly. Formal military alliances must be upheld, or they mean nothing. If the positioning of nuclear weapons didn't immediately end the war (as in Pakistan-India) then there would likely be limited launches of tactical weapons at invading forces. At that point we reach the crisis point. Either the war ends there, or we get retaliatory nuclear launches at which point the most likely scenario is the majority of the northern hemisphere becoming a depopulated wasteland.
ta1243 1y ago
Will nato go to war if Russia sends a few drones over a member state? Of course not. Nuclear powers would only use nuclear weapons if it's the last resort. So when in the salami tactics world does it get used? It's not exactly a new scenario: Riots in West Berlin, buildings in flames. East German fire brigade crosses the border to help. Would you press the button? The East German police come with them. The button? Then some troops, more troops just for riot control, they say. And then the East German troops are replaced by Russian troops. Button? Then the Russian troops don't go. They are invited to stay to support civilian administration. The civilian administration closes roads and Tempelhof Airport.

kevin_thibedeau 1y ago

I heard it would take 24 hours...

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
somenameforme 1y ago
He's referring to nukes. War between NATO and Russia is a non-starter because there's no viable way it doesn't almost immediately escalate to nukes, especially when all parties would be aware of this creating even more an incentive to be the first to try, and inevitably fail, at a preemptive nuclear strike to completely disable the opposing forces' nuclear options.
- rightbyte 1y ago
  Ye there are so much romantic fantasies roaming around I don't recognize the 'Overton window' anymore.
- tim333 1y ago
  Russia may do low level stuff like drones into Poland that is not bad enough to launch a nuclear war over.
- ponector 1y ago
  But why? We have many examples of war activities between states with nukes. If tomorrow russia will occupy three NATO countries: Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia - nobody is going to use nukes.
  - somenameforme 1y ago
    We only have one direct example - Pakistan and India, and nukes came out within hours of the conflict starting, and it was settled rapidly afterwards. And I do think conflict in the Baltics would leak to nuclear war rapidly. Formal military alliances must be upheld, or they mean nothing. If the positioning of nuclear weapons didn't immediately end the war (as in Pakistan-India) then there would likely be limited launches of tactical weapons at invading forces. At that point we reach the crisis point. Either the war ends there, or we get retaliatory nuclear launches at which point the most likely scenario is the majority of the northern hemisphere becoming a depopulated wasteland.

ta1243 1y ago

Will nato go to war if Russia sends a few drones over a member state? Of course not. Nuclear powers would only use nuclear weapons if it's the last resort. So when in the salami tactics world does it get used? It's not exactly a new scenario: Riots in West Berlin, buildings in flames. East German fire brigade crosses the border to help. Would you press the button? The East German police come with them. The button? Then some troops, more troops just for riot control, they say. And then the East German troops are replaced by Russian troops. Button? Then the Russian troops don't go. They are invited to stay to support civilian administration. The civilian administration closes roads and Tempelhof Airport.