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I think Oracle's stock mostly popped due to a delayed reaction with the US GSA contract it secured in July and the revenue guidance probably related to it: htt

• belter 1y ago
  Lol...That contract has Oracle offering licenses at a discount of 75% and is estimated to make them not more than one 1 Billion. The other big contract on Cloud services the DoD JWCC is $8B to 9B but shared by four vendors (AWS, Microsoft, Google, Oracle) and Oracle orders under it are in the hundreds of millions not even 1 Billion... Wall Street is currently heavily punishing any company who misses their quarter, including NVIDIA!, after beating on their quarter. Oracle had a earnings miss in the current quarter! Their current REALITY is ~$15B quarterly revenue (with cloud infra ~$3B) and only ~$12B in near-term deferred backlog and deferred backlog is NOT revenue. To justify the valuation, this would imply OCI going from ~$18B in FY26 to ~$140B by FY30 that is an insane promise of +$120B in 4 years but back-loaded into the year 3 or year 4. :-)) Capex needs ~$35B next year just to chase GPUs/power and if they miss one quarter the story implodes. The supposed rational, efficient market, is paying near $1T today for back-loaded hopes. Is completely bubble math. Like anybody, including Oracle AND their Customers, have ANY idea of their Capex in 4 years. Complete and total bubble.
  • Zacharias030 1y ago
    Thanks for that! where can I find your writing?
    • belter 1y ago
      History will prove me right. Just wait four years...