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And none of those are public companies and no one knows how much any of those companies are worth. Right now using the valuation technique that tge value of a

And none of those are public companies and no one knows how much any of those companies are worth. Right now using the valuation technique that tge value of a company is the net present value of all future returns * some multiple, we don’t know if any of them will ever be valuable.

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> using the valuation technique that tge value of a company is the net present value of all future returns some multiple, we don’t know if any of them will ever be valuable* This metric has nothing to do with whether a company is public or private.
- JustExAWS 1y ago
  But no one knows how much a company is truly worth until it goes on the public market and if all of the private companies “worth billions” went under, only VCs would be harmed. This isn’t like the dot com bust.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > no one knows how much a company is truly worth until it goes on the public market Nobody ever knows what a company is worth other than the people buying and selling it in an M&A transaction at that precise moment. Public markets just have more transactions than private markets—the mechanism of price discovery is similar, if not the same. > if all of the private companies “worth billions” went under, only VCs would be harmed I’d be shocked if it didn’t take out the banking system. You’re describing the annihilation of trillions of dollars of pension, endowment and retirement wealth; to say nothing of the effects on municipal, state and federal payroll finances; to say nothing of the asset-backed loans tied to these assets and purchases they make from public companies and their employees’ spending.
    - scarface_74 1y ago
      Private equity makes up less than 1% of pensions https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/11/private-equity-wants-a-larger-piece-of-workplace-retirement-plan-assets.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/11/private-equity-wants-a-large...
      - s1artibartfast 1y ago
        Is significantly more for pensions. The article says 1% of retirement is for retirement plans, which are predominantly 401ks. The article claims pensions, on the other hand, as one of the leading investors in private equity. The term retirement plan is radically different from pensions. By way of example, your local teachers union pension is probably massively invested to private equity. Your tech worker 401k is not.

JumpCrisscross 1y ago

> using the valuation technique that tge value of a company is the net present value of all future returns some multiple, we don’t know if any of them will ever be valuable* This metric has nothing to do with whether a company is public or private.

JustExAWS 1y ago
But no one knows how much a company is truly worth until it goes on the public market and if all of the private companies “worth billions” went under, only VCs would be harmed. This isn’t like the dot com bust.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > no one knows how much a company is truly worth until it goes on the public market Nobody ever knows what a company is worth other than the people buying and selling it in an M&A transaction at that precise moment. Public markets just have more transactions than private markets—the mechanism of price discovery is similar, if not the same. > if all of the private companies “worth billions” went under, only VCs would be harmed I’d be shocked if it didn’t take out the banking system. You’re describing the annihilation of trillions of dollars of pension, endowment and retirement wealth; to say nothing of the effects on municipal, state and federal payroll finances; to say nothing of the asset-backed loans tied to these assets and purchases they make from public companies and their employees’ spending.
  - scarface_74 1y ago
    Private equity makes up less than 1% of pensions https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/11/private-equity-wants-a-larger-piece-of-workplace-retirement-plan-assets.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/11/private-equity-wants-a-large...
    - s1artibartfast 1y ago
      Is significantly more for pensions. The article says 1% of retirement is for retirement plans, which are predominantly 401ks. The article claims pensions, on the other hand, as one of the leading investors in private equity. The term retirement plan is radically different from pensions. By way of example, your local teachers union pension is probably massively invested to private equity. Your tech worker 401k is not.