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One can call into question the paucity of AI-critical posts & comments here on HN. Not much is being said about the economics, everybody's living off the hope t
by pmdr 1y ago
One can call into question the paucity of AI-critical posts & comments here on HN. Not much is being said about the economics, everybody's living off the hope that "they'll figure it out." And AGI is just a few hundred-billion-dollar loans away, so why quit while we're ahead?
If they do "figure it out" (both AGI and a viable business model), a lot of people here will likely be out of a job. If they don't, the whole thing will come crashing down, taking our invested savings with it.
The comparison to crypto keeps coming up. Not everyone's savings went into crypto, but a lot of people's savings and retirement funds are being invested in funds tied to the stock market. And right now its growth depending on pumping cash into the AI bubble.
- simianwords 1y agoThe answer is so easy to solve. Do I find value in paying 20 dollars a month for ChatGPT? Yes. Do others? As far as I can see, yes. Most people are happy with the value. Are AI companies profitable if they stop R&D? Yes. Where’s the skepticism coming from?
- pmdr 1y agoI'd actually be content knowing $20 a month covers inference and makes them a decent profit, but I have my doubts. If there's proof out there that it does, I haven't found it yet. > Are AI companies profitable if they stop R&D? Yes. By what metrics? Where's the data?
- simianwords 1y agoWe're profitable on inference. If we didn't pay for training, we'd be a very profitable company - Sam Altman
- pmdr 1y agoThis statement is probably all we're going to get out of a private company that's a long way from making a profit. Personally, I'd like to see data, because I don't really trust whatever twisted definition of "profitable" Altman prefers. Until then I'll take advantage of the $20 price tag, but remain skeptical about its sustainability.
- simianwords 1y agoLets assume that it is not profitable now because inference is too costly. Do you think making inference 20% more efficient would make it profitable? Or 60%?
- pmdr 1y agoNo idea, we don't even have ballpark numbers about that. If they ever truly & transparently become profitable, there will be billions to pay back to investors -- I don't think anyone treats OpenAI like a charity project. At that point I highly doubt the subscription will still be $20.