4 ms·
12*0.4% is 4.8% Inflation is running at an annualised 4.8%. The 2.9% number is backward looking. Sure monthly inflation is more volatile, but the direction of
by m101 1y ago
12*0.4% is 4.8%
Inflation is running at an annualised 4.8%. The 2.9% number is backward looking.
Sure monthly inflation is more volatile, but the direction of travel is up, and that running average of 2.9% will be increasing slowly as it incorporates the recent higher prints.
Edit: the seasonally adjusted change is 0.4% actually, with the monthly change 0.3%
- jlongr 1y agoYou concede that monthly inflation is volatile but then proceed to assume it is has grown uniformly and speculate that it will continue to grow uniformly? Umm...
- UncleMeat 1y agoThe point is that the annual number is often rather confusing from a reporting perspective.
- m101 1y agoAnd that an annual number is diluted and will only feed in slowly over time. If we knew inflation was permanently at 5% from now on, a blend with 2% for 11 months and 5% for 1 month, is not informative.
- jlongr 1y agoPointless observation.
- jlongr 1y agoThey said: "12*0.4% is 4.8%. Inflation is running at an annualised 4.8%." This is patently wrong.
- readthenotes1 1y agoBecause it's 1.04^12? Or are you addressing some other flaw?
- jakelazaroff 1y agoAren't you slightly undercounting? If inflation compounds, 0.4% inflation a month would be 1.004^12 = 4.9%.
- m101 1y agoYes you're right
- bitshiftfaced 1y agoThis MoM increase was higher than about 70% of previous changes on the same interval. It's not so extreme that we can reasonably infer from it a looming disaster. Looking at the 7 month change (year to date), 63% of the time you'd see a higher increase than this. The "direction of travel is up", but that's almost always the case.