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My naive expectation was: - Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand - Prices of goods would skyrocket because of tariffs But i

by tlogan 1y ago

My naive expectation was: - Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand - Prices of goods would skyrocket because of tariffs But instead, rents went way up. Could this be driven by the push to return to the office?

Aurornis 1y ago
> Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand The number of people deported is negligible. Around 200,000 people. Despite all the news and drama, this number isn’t actually very different than normal. Any large country will have a steady stream of deportations if they enforce immigration laws. It has been like this for a long time. Don’t believe the news and political rhetoric. Look at numbers. Do no trust any political claims without looking at the numbers.
- Yoric 1y ago
  As far as I can tell from a distance (I live in Europe), it seems to be more violent than usual, though. Is that correct?
  - Aurornis 1y ago
    They are trying to make a big show of it with the masks and big public events, yes. It’s all political drama and it’s very sad that it’s like this.
SR2Z 1y ago
The "deportation of illegals" cannot reduce rents unless you think that undocumented workers are competing with Americans to pay $3k/mo rents in major cities, instead of living in RVs or cramming into small rooms. It can increase rents because immigrants build houses and do mental jobs like cleaning. > Could this be driven by the push to return to the office? A little. People still want to live in desirable areas for reasons other than work.
- notmyjob 1y ago
  You cannot reduce rent period. Inflation is permanent typically, you can slow the rate of increase but prices don’t go back. Even massive building projects like the yimby’s lobby for can’t move the needle on housing costs according to economists who study the issue. If you are a renter in Silicon Valley you are absolutely competing with non-citizens who are paying 3k for 1 and 2 bedroom apartments. That’s why so many locals who were born there are now homeless or have had to leave. I can tell you the streets and neighborhoods where it’s almost 100% new (non-legal and low skill) residents. The rents in those neighborhoods are very much in the 2000-3000 range. Section is likely a factor but I don’t know that non-fully legal residents get section 8. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if they did.
  - jghn 1y ago
    "non-citizens" and "undocumented workers" don't even come close to forming a circle in a Venn diagram.
    - notmyjob 1y ago
      I meant “undocumented workers” but didn’t want to offend people and don’t know that these “undocumented” people are actual workers. The phrase “undocumented worker” is, if not absurd newspeak, at these very least extremely imprecise: what documents, what work? Edit: here’s a thread on one such place, very much in the good, expensive side of town. (Studios go for about 3k in Campbell last I checked.) https://www.reddit.com/r/SanJose/comments/17acwq4/is_cadillac_drimpala_dr_really_that_dangerous/ https://www.reddit.com/r/SanJose/comments/17acwq4/is_cadilla... Many, though perhaps not most, of the non-citizens there are non-workers, unless you consider drug dealing gang members workers. They do have a stellar carniceria though, and it’s fairly safe during the day if you avoid eye contact with men and don’t wear certain colors.
  - SR2Z 1y ago
    > I can tell you the streets and neighborhoods where it’s almost 100% new (non-legal and low skill) residents. The rents in those neighborhoods are very much in the 2000-3000 range. Section is likely a factor but I don’t know that non-fully legal residents get section 8. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if they did. Sorry, you think the government is giving low-skill non-citizens thousands of dollars a month to live in the most expensive parts of the country? That's an utterly ridiculous claim and I would like to see proof. > Section is likely a factor but I don’t know that non-fully legal residents get section 8. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if they did. I think you have bad priors and are assuming that welfare is a lot more generous than it really is. To qualify for Section 8, you must be a citizen or here on a permanent resident visa. If you are not in the country legally, you generally cannot access welfare. > You cannot reduce rent period. Inflation is permanent typically, you can slow the rate of increase but prices don’t go back. Even massive building projects like the yimby’s lobby for can’t move the needle on housing costs according to economists who study the issue. This is trivially wrong. Just Google "rent declines."
coldpie 1y ago
> My naive expectation was: > - Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand This was indeed extremely naive. There are not enough people in the US illegally to be a significant factor in housing demand. I'd suggest no longer getting information from whatever source lead you to believe this.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
jghn 1y ago
> Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand The fact that anyone would think this could possibly be true is an indicator of how strong the propaganda machine is.
gdbsjjdn 1y ago
> Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand Genuinely curious because I've never heard someone state this quite so credulously. How many people do you think are in the country illegally, that they're moving the housing market in a substantial way? In my experience seasonal farm workers (both with status and without) are usually housed in what are essentially dorms. These buildings are borderline illegal from a building perspective and not housing supply you would compete for. Who are the millions of undocumented people renting a 2000/month 2 bedroom 1 bath condo?
- ac29 1y ago
  > How many people do you think are in the country illegally Pew research said 14 million in 2023: https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2025/08/21/u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-population-reached-a-record-14-million-in-2023/ https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2025/08/21/u-...
cloverich 1y ago
Rents i naively think will follow new builds (low) and investor activity (high, and increasing). I expect any high ish demand area to see continued raising rents until they either build enough and / or kick out investors (but then, its far more complex compared to home purchases).

by tlogan 1y ago

Aurornis 1y ago

> Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand The number of people deported is negligible. Around 200,000 people. Despite all the news and drama, this number isn’t actually very different than normal. Any large country will have a steady stream of deportations if they enforce immigration laws. It has been like this for a long time. Don’t believe the news and political rhetoric. Look at numbers. Do no trust any political claims without looking at the numbers.

Yoric 1y ago
As far as I can tell from a distance (I live in Europe), it seems to be more violent than usual, though. Is that correct?
- Aurornis 1y ago
  They are trying to make a big show of it with the masks and big public events, yes. It’s all political drama and it’s very sad that it’s like this.

SR2Z 1y ago

The "deportation of illegals" cannot reduce rents unless you think that undocumented workers are competing with Americans to pay $3k/mo rents in major cities, instead of living in RVs or cramming into small rooms. It can increase rents because immigrants build houses and do mental jobs like cleaning. > Could this be driven by the push to return to the office? A little. People still want to live in desirable areas for reasons other than work.

notmyjob 1y ago
You cannot reduce rent period. Inflation is permanent typically, you can slow the rate of increase but prices don’t go back. Even massive building projects like the yimby’s lobby for can’t move the needle on housing costs according to economists who study the issue. If you are a renter in Silicon Valley you are absolutely competing with non-citizens who are paying 3k for 1 and 2 bedroom apartments. That’s why so many locals who were born there are now homeless or have had to leave. I can tell you the streets and neighborhoods where it’s almost 100% new (non-legal and low skill) residents. The rents in those neighborhoods are very much in the 2000-3000 range. Section is likely a factor but I don’t know that non-fully legal residents get section 8. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if they did.
- jghn 1y ago
  "non-citizens" and "undocumented workers" don't even come close to forming a circle in a Venn diagram.
  - notmyjob 1y ago
    I meant “undocumented workers” but didn’t want to offend people and don’t know that these “undocumented” people are actual workers. The phrase “undocumented worker” is, if not absurd newspeak, at these very least extremely imprecise: what documents, what work? Edit: here’s a thread on one such place, very much in the good, expensive side of town. (Studios go for about 3k in Campbell last I checked.) https://www.reddit.com/r/SanJose/comments/17acwq4/is_cadillac_drimpala_dr_really_that_dangerous/ https://www.reddit.com/r/SanJose/comments/17acwq4/is_cadilla... Many, though perhaps not most, of the non-citizens there are non-workers, unless you consider drug dealing gang members workers. They do have a stellar carniceria though, and it’s fairly safe during the day if you avoid eye contact with men and don’t wear certain colors.
- SR2Z 1y ago
  > I can tell you the streets and neighborhoods where it’s almost 100% new (non-legal and low skill) residents. The rents in those neighborhoods are very much in the 2000-3000 range. Section is likely a factor but I don’t know that non-fully legal residents get section 8. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if they did. Sorry, you think the government is giving low-skill non-citizens thousands of dollars a month to live in the most expensive parts of the country? That's an utterly ridiculous claim and I would like to see proof. > Section is likely a factor but I don’t know that non-fully legal residents get section 8. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if they did. I think you have bad priors and are assuming that welfare is a lot more generous than it really is. To qualify for Section 8, you must be a citizen or here on a permanent resident visa. If you are not in the country legally, you generally cannot access welfare. > You cannot reduce rent period. Inflation is permanent typically, you can slow the rate of increase but prices don’t go back. Even massive building projects like the yimby’s lobby for can’t move the needle on housing costs according to economists who study the issue. This is trivially wrong. Just Google "rent declines."

coldpie 1y ago

> My naive expectation was: > - Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand This was indeed extremely naive. There are not enough people in the US illegally to be a significant factor in housing demand. I'd suggest no longer getting information from whatever source lead you to believe this.

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]

jghn 1y ago

> Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand The fact that anyone would think this could possibly be true is an indicator of how strong the propaganda machine is.

gdbsjjdn 1y ago

> Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand Genuinely curious because I've never heard someone state this quite so credulously. How many people do you think are in the country illegally, that they're moving the housing market in a substantial way? In my experience seasonal farm workers (both with status and without) are usually housed in what are essentially dorms. These buildings are borderline illegal from a building perspective and not housing supply you would compete for. Who are the millions of undocumented people renting a 2000/month 2 bedroom 1 bath condo?

ac29 1y ago
> How many people do you think are in the country illegally Pew research said 14 million in 2023: https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2025/08/21/u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-population-reached-a-record-14-million-in-2023/ https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2025/08/21/u-...

cloverich 1y ago

Rents i naively think will follow new builds (low) and investor activity (high, and increasing). I expect any high ish demand area to see continued raising rents until they either build enough and / or kick out investors (but then, its far more complex compared to home purchases).