5 ms·

$100k/year is literally nothing. Think of it as maybe $10k/employee, figuring a conservative 10% boost in productivity against a lowball $100k/year fully burde

$100k/year is literally nothing. Think of it as maybe $10k/employee, figuring a conservative 10% boost in productivity against a lowball $100k/year fully burdened salary+benefits. For a company with 10,000 employees that’s $100m/year.

techpineapple 1y ago
But we won’t get there unless the company integration failure rate falls below 95%
- reb 1y ago
  Eh, seems likely to me existing companies are structured for human labor in a way that's hard to really hard to untangle — smart individuals can level up with this stuff, but remaking an entire company demands human-level AI (not there yet) or a mostly AI-fluent team (working with/through AI is a new skill and few workers have developed it). New co's built by individuals who get AI are best positioned to unlock the dramatic effects of the technology, and it's going to take time for them to eclipse encumbent players and then seed the labor market with AI-fluent talent
Mizza 1y ago
Even at $10k/yr/employee, you'd need 30 million people on the 10k/yr plan to hit 300B ARR. I think that's a hell of a big swing. 3 million, recoup over ten years? Maybe, but I still don't think so. And then competition between 4 or 5 vendors, larger customers figuring out it's cheaper to train their own models for one thing that gives them 90% of the productivity gains, etc. But rather than speculating, I'm generally curious what the companies are saying to their investors about the matter.
- simianwords 1y ago
  I don’t get why you need 300B arr?
34679 1y ago
That's literally not how the word "literally" works.
- jcranmer 1y ago
  It literally is: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/literally https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/literally
- superblas 1y ago
  That’s literally how the English language works. It literally evolves
  - card_zero 1y ago
    It doesn't proliferate new forms without selection, that's not how evolution works. (Heh, I see "proliferate" itself is a back-formation.)

techpineapple 1y ago

But we won’t get there unless the company integration failure rate falls below 95%

reb 1y ago
Eh, seems likely to me existing companies are structured for human labor in a way that's hard to really hard to untangle — smart individuals can level up with this stuff, but remaking an entire company demands human-level AI (not there yet) or a mostly AI-fluent team (working with/through AI is a new skill and few workers have developed it). New co's built by individuals who get AI are best positioned to unlock the dramatic effects of the technology, and it's going to take time for them to eclipse encumbent players and then seed the labor market with AI-fluent talent

Mizza 1y ago

Even at $10k/yr/employee, you'd need 30 million people on the 10k/yr plan to hit 300B ARR. I think that's a hell of a big swing. 3 million, recoup over ten years? Maybe, but I still don't think so. And then competition between 4 or 5 vendors, larger customers figuring out it's cheaper to train their own models for one thing that gives them 90% of the productivity gains, etc. But rather than speculating, I'm generally curious what the companies are saying to their investors about the matter.

simianwords 1y ago
I don’t get why you need 300B arr?

34679 1y ago

That's literally not how the word "literally" works.

jcranmer 1y ago
It literally is: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/literally https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/literally
superblas 1y ago
That’s literally how the English language works. It literally evolves
- card_zero 1y ago
  It doesn't proliferate new forms without selection, that's not how evolution works. (Heh, I see "proliferate" itself is a back-formation.)