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> The effects of the technology would have to rival that of.. idk, soap and the locomotive combined? In order for us not to be in a bubble. Can you quantify th

by vmg12 1y ago

> The effects of the technology would have to rival that of.. idk, soap and the locomotive combined? In order for us not to be in a bubble. Can you quantify this or are you going based on vibes? If I were to compare this to previous bubbles (ie crypto, dot com bubble), in valuation multiple terms we haven't gotten started. And a number of tech companies eventually grew into and surpassed their bubble valuations.

dijit 1y ago
Soap was essentially the onset of what we’d consider urban living, before soap (and even for a long time after to be fair) medical operations had a stupidly hi morbidity and city life was also quite.. unsurvivable. Soap itself may not have been an investment, but it unlocked a lot of capabilities for our civilisation. Almost impossible to quantify how much. Locomotives were something that had a definite upfront cost, unlike soap, and we invested so much money - up to 3% of GDP in some years in the 1800s.. but the economic benefits were ridiculous. Spending on AI data centers is so massive that it's taken a bigger chunk of GDP growth than shopping! (according to Yahoo!: https://consent.yahoo.com/v2/collectConsent?sessionId=3_cc-session_40758a6a-40ab-4d52-a982-dd689cd7d152 https://consent.yahoo.com/v2/collectConsent?sessionId=3_cc-s...) I mean, it’s really apples to oranges, but I can’t imagine us getting the returns anywhere close to what rail gave us in the 1800s.
- vmg12 1y ago
  I dont know why you keep on bringing up soap. Soap, something anyone with knowledge can create in their own home, is not comparable to gpus and ai models which both require massive capital investments and skills to produce and thus are able to command massive margins. > Spending on AI data centers is so massive that it's taken a bigger chunk of GDP growth than shopping You havent compared this to previous bubbles like the internet, smart phones and personal computing in general. Your argument isnt convincing.
  - dijit 1y ago
    I have in my other comments. But AI investment is outpacing all the things you mentioned. I mentioned soap not because of capital investments, but because of what the GDP growth was following the invention. If AI is qualitatively lower than the GDP growth caused by SOAP then we're going to see a lot of unemployment. So, it's a bubble- nothing could possibly match soap.

by vmg12 1y ago

dijit 1y ago

Soap was essentially the onset of what we’d consider urban living, before soap (and even for a long time after to be fair) medical operations had a stupidly hi morbidity and city life was also quite.. unsurvivable. Soap itself may not have been an investment, but it unlocked a lot of capabilities for our civilisation. Almost impossible to quantify how much. Locomotives were something that had a definite upfront cost, unlike soap, and we invested so much money - up to 3% of GDP in some years in the 1800s.. but the economic benefits were ridiculous. Spending on AI data centers is so massive that it's taken a bigger chunk of GDP growth than shopping! (according to Yahoo!: https://consent.yahoo.com/v2/collectConsent?sessionId=3_cc-session_40758a6a-40ab-4d52-a982-dd689cd7d152 https://consent.yahoo.com/v2/collectConsent?sessionId=3_cc-s...) I mean, it’s really apples to oranges, but I can’t imagine us getting the returns anywhere close to what rail gave us in the 1800s.

vmg12 1y ago
I dont know why you keep on bringing up soap. Soap, something anyone with knowledge can create in their own home, is not comparable to gpus and ai models which both require massive capital investments and skills to produce and thus are able to command massive margins. > Spending on AI data centers is so massive that it's taken a bigger chunk of GDP growth than shopping You havent compared this to previous bubbles like the internet, smart phones and personal computing in general. Your argument isnt convincing.
- dijit 1y ago
  I have in my other comments. But AI investment is outpacing all the things you mentioned. I mentioned soap not because of capital investments, but because of what the GDP growth was following the invention. If AI is qualitatively lower than the GDP growth caused by SOAP then we're going to see a lot of unemployment. So, it's a bubble- nothing could possibly match soap.