Norway and Botswana are good counterpoints here. I think its more about the fact that resource-rich countries naturally have a way for elites to stay in power

Norway and Botswana are good counterpoints here. I think its more about the fact that resource-rich countries naturally have a way for elites to stay in power longer than those without simply because they have enough money to go around to appease the populace they control. (An interesting test of this thesis would be how long Putin can stay in power now that they have to partially ration fuel due to Ukrainian refinery strikes)