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Like many others, I'm of the opinion that shit is about to hit the fan in terms of the economy. Too many alarm bells, too many attempts by the admin to cover up

Like many others, I'm of the opinion that shit is about to hit the fan in terms of the economy. Too many alarm bells, too many attempts by the admin to cover up and distract from the pillars starting to show cracks. I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession because that one wrecked an entire generation in terms of wealth and psychology.

orochimaaru 1y ago
If 80% of postal traffic was commercial and just being used to not pay duty/tariffs, then the tariffs are achieving what was intended. I don’t like the broad application of tariffs that is implemented today. They should have been better targeted. But this is one area where they are achieving what was intended.
- maxerickson 1y ago
  Prior to the across the board tariffs, there mostly weren't tariffs to avoid. The de minimus exception was for the administrative overhead rather than any tax.
- nothercastle 1y ago
  In think a lot of those good are simply not flowing anymore. Suddenly a bunch a products are from companies around the world are no longer viable to sell until current stock is purged and the price of everything goes up. A lot of vendors are still locked in with pre-tarrif pricing to big box stores so all of them need to go bankrupt before the full price increase takes effect.
  - wqaatwt 1y ago
    EU did this years ago when they started applying VAT on small packages. You can still easily buy as much Chinese stuff as you lik, though. Chaos and uncertainty seem like a much bigger issue in the US than forcing foreign retailers to compete on an even footing with local sellers.
    - swasheck 1y ago
      chaos and uncertainty are the result of what appears to be fundamental ignorance of how complex economic systems work. policies are being drafted and executed based on a cursory understanding of how things work, and undergirded by barely-suppressed racism.
      - dboreham 1y ago
        Chaos and uncertainty are a feature not a bug.
    - bee_rider 1y ago
      A VAT is specifically designed to try and distort the market less (by taxing the value added at each step). With a tariff the whole point in the distortion, the goal is to make the imported goods less competitive.
- ghaff 1y ago
  There is probably a subset of people here who ordered consumer goods from Alibaba or wherever but I literally couldn't tell you the last time I ordered something (directly) from somewhere international.
- watwut 1y ago
  It was used to buy stuff from abroad. Now, selling the stuff to USA requires the seller to pay US tax on behalf of the American citizen to US government and then take that tax back from the American citizen. It is ridiculous. And also, if you are buying/selling low amounts and there is an intentional legal rule that says "small mounts are not taxed", then you are not avoiding anything nor using a loophole. You are legitimately buying a Canadian or Mexican item.
  - 4ndrewl 1y ago
    Surely it's "the Mexicans" that are going to pay the tariffs? /s
- croes 1y ago
  Postal traffic doesn’t mean no tariffs or duty, it just means it was shipped from outside the US. But now it’s an unknown risk to ship because you don’t know if the tariffs you calculated when you send the package are the same as when it arrives. Get used to empty shelves and less choices at a higher price. Lose-Lose-Lose
- kaitai 1y ago
  Don't worry, it also hits birthday cards from my cousins, Christmas presents from my siblings, care packages with those favorite candies and coffees that aren't sold in the US. My sibling can't send me hand-knit items or hand-me-down kids items, items truly of de minimis monetary value. It may be accomplishing what was intended -- but I don't think that people in the US (even those paying attention) understand what was intended. The lack of clarity in terms of regulations and collection of fees/tariffs show that it is not about efficiently collecting the $ but instead about breaking the chain of goods, from big business to small business to family ties, and cutting off flow to the USPS, supporting the privatization of the entity. I agree that the de minimis exemption was being abused at scale. I'm also salty that my family can't send birthday or Christmas presents, even a home-made card. Whatever you want to say about this administration, always look one level down for the wholesale reconfiguration of supply chain and international connections that they're aiming for.
  - swasheck 1y ago
    > It may be accomplishing what was intended -- but I don't think that people in the US (even those paying attention) understand what was intended. this is what i suspect too. most of his common supporters i interact with parrot the “america first will revitalize the economy and job market” and then when that doesnt happen they do the same with “i’m willing to deal with temporary bit of pain in order to ensure american interests are protected.” these comments are almost always framed against the Obama and Biden administrations and never stand on their own merit (e.g. “unlike biden who …”). to be perfectly fair, I’m not entirely sure what the ultimate goal is, though. My perception of the character of the person of the president has been dim for many decades so when it’s something that he champions I immediately chalk it up to something that would serve his own self interest above that of any group of other people
    - dboreham 1y ago
      The goal is to hurt people thereby providing narcissistic supply.
  - iwontberude 1y ago
- blackguardx 1y ago
  The purpose of de minimus is to streamline small shipments, commercial or not. It can't really be abused unless the declared value is false and it is really over $800. If you are taking issue with Temu-like shipments, that is more of a postal treaty issue.
- michaelmrose 1y ago
  Why would 80% of postal traffic NOT be commercial in a world with phones, video conferencing and email?
davidw 1y ago
So what's everyone think is a good place for their money to be? I'm pretty vexxed by this question. To me it seems obvious that a lot of what is happening is going to hurt, both short term (tariffs) and long term (destruction of the US advantage in science), but markets have kept going up and up.
- 4ndrewl 1y ago
  Gold and other commodities. The usual.
- Mistletoe 1y ago
  Hoping to do this in 2026. https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/12/16/three-secret-ingredients-of-the-most-efficient-portfolios/ https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/12/16/three-secret-ingredie... Something like the Frontier-3. Small cap value, long term treasuries, and gold. That portfolio does amazing at all time periods and still hit 10% a year in the lost decade after the 2000 crash.
- notpachet 1y ago
  > So what's everyone think is a good place for their money to be? Reinvested into the fabric of your local community.
  - davidw 1y ago
    I do a lot of that with my time, rather than money, but it won't pay the mortgage.
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
    - notpachet 1y ago
      Time is money, friend.
jmpman 1y ago
It feels like the US individual tax rates are on the left hand side of the larger curve especially for high earners. It’s especially to the left for estate taxes. If these were corrected to maximize revenue, I doubt we would have these gaps. Didn’t hear Elon proposing that.
- bpt3 1y ago
  The US has the most progressive income tax system in the developed world, and its middle and lower classes are probably the least taxed (due to the combination of the statement above and the lack of a VAT). I'm not sure where this misconception comes from that the upper class of the US would be more highly taxed elsewhere, but it continues to pollute any attempts to have honest discussions about reform.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - quesera 1y ago
    > I'm not sure where this misconception comes from that the upper class of the US would be more highly taxed elsewhere In the relevant comparison cases, this does not appear to be a misconception. I am not an expert in global taxation, and with the caveat that tax rates have many complications ... some quick research suggests the following: A top-bracket earner from Texas would have a higher tax rate in 55 other countries, e.g. Aruba, Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Canada, Chile, China, Croatia, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Greenland, Iceland, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Morocco, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, United Kingdom, Zimbabwe. (I skipped some) A top-bracket earner from California would have a higher tax rate in 11 other countries: Aruba, Austria, Belgium, Canada (the parts where people live), Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Japan, Portugal, Spain. (You might argue that "upper class" does not include "earners", which would be a good way to be technically correct but would miss the point.) Additionally, the capital gains rate is higher in 24 other countries, including most of the obvious ones. And the top corporate tax rate is higher in 133 other countries.
pessimizer 1y ago
It's long overdue. I'm not sure exactly how long bitcoin, tech stock speculation and private equity rollups were supposed to support an actual economy. The question is whether you impose protectionism before or after you crater. > I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession because that one wrecked an entire generation in terms of wealth and psychology. It's going to be longer, and worse. Especially since there's no one in the ruling class that doesn't think that the way to get out of recessions is the massive-scale disinvestment that comes with austerity. We only got out of the last one because while America was preaching austerity, it was giving handouts to every wealthy person in America, while Europe was actually dumb enough to do austerity for real. Upper-middle class people will be fine. During covid their wealth doubled through no particular effort of their own. It was just a gift from taxpayers to show them we love them.
mmastrac 1y ago
From someone outside the US (Canada) and in a country that's been abused by its giant next-door neighbour -- longer than just the current, explicit abuse -- I kinda hope this recession is deep and hurts badly. We've already seen some huge, positive structural changes to our economy and a down-and-out, bleeding US will have nothing but positive effects for the rest of us. I'd have some sympathy but this is an entirely self-inflicted wound and Americans could collectively use a bit of humility.
- cmrdporcupine 1y ago
  > We've already seen some huge, positive structural changes to our economy None of this is good for working Canadians right now. The shit is about to hit the proverbial fan in this country in the next few months. And as bad as things might get in the US they're likely to be worse here. Maybe in the long run we'll be on a stronger footing but it could also just lead to even more entrenched monopolies in the Canadian economy, and a victimized Canadian consumer.
- wqaatwt 1y ago
  Unfortunately regardless of whose fault is its hard to imagine Canada will be doing better than the US . It’s just to reliant on US economically. e.g. just like the tariffs which are hurting Canada much more than the US.
- justinrubek 1y ago
  What a vile response. I hope you feel some of the pain that you wish to dish out. There are a lot of us in the US who don't want this bullshit and haven't wanted it. A lot.
  - ehnto 1y ago
    Then I hope they vote next time. I am not as optimistic as the parent comment, about a US recession being of benefit to the rest of the world. I think we're all various degrees of fucked if it all falls apart, though it is probably true that other countries will benefit in the long run.
  - 1y ago
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
kilroy123 1y ago
"History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes." I think there will be a depression, not just a recession. I really hope I'm wrong.
- throwawayohio 1y ago
  I think you're right, unfortunately. Looking at the causes and the current actions of the US government (and, other governments worldwide tbh), this looks like an almost deliberate attempt to create a new class divide and supply of low-education workers. A depression would cement this. If you aren't already rich by the time it really kicks off, you probably won't make it out.
  - AnimalMuppet 1y ago
    "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." On the other hand, "Sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice." In the end, it doesn't matter whether these are incompetent or malicious people. These are people who are going to ruin a lot of lives around the world. The trick is, how do we get them out of power (in several countries) before they do too much damage?
- AnimalMuppet 1y ago
  From an old cartoon that I remember: "A depression can't happen, and even if it does it will never be called by that name."
PhantomHour 1y ago
> I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession Not a chance. Were it just the tariffs, the recession would be quite small. The tariffs might even be cancelled if the SCOTUS remembers to do it's job. But it's not just the tariffs. The US economy is currently being kept afloat by AI R&D and infrastructure spending. It's stock market kept alive by 7 companies who are all neck deep in AI hype. This not only disguises the malaise in the rest of the US economy, it's a bubble. Everyone knows it. Nvidia's the only one making any money and even they are now relying on vendor financing and other such red flags. Even one who believes that the technology of AI is here to stay, has to face the reality that it's not a golden goose of infinite dollar bills. We're looking at something that's going to be at least as bad as the Dotcom crash. 'At least' because while the bubble is of only comparable size, other conditions are much worse. Trump is trying to seize the fed. Big Tech is tearing the copper wiring out of it's own walls to keep AI going a little longer, and their plans for cutting costs is to dramatically increase H1Bs and outsourcing. (One wonders if there might be a non-economic reason behind this, given it's one specific country they're seeking to hire from >.>) And underneath it all: A timebomb. Much, much, much more of consumer spending in 2025 is from pensioners than it was in 2000. When the stock market eats a 50% loss and stay there for a decade, those pensions will be cut dramatically. This drives down consumer spending, in turn driving down the stock market, a vicious cycle.

orochimaaru 1y ago

If 80% of postal traffic was commercial and just being used to not pay duty/tariffs, then the tariffs are achieving what was intended. I don’t like the broad application of tariffs that is implemented today. They should have been better targeted. But this is one area where they are achieving what was intended.

maxerickson 1y ago
Prior to the across the board tariffs, there mostly weren't tariffs to avoid. The de minimus exception was for the administrative overhead rather than any tax.
nothercastle 1y ago
In think a lot of those good are simply not flowing anymore. Suddenly a bunch a products are from companies around the world are no longer viable to sell until current stock is purged and the price of everything goes up. A lot of vendors are still locked in with pre-tarrif pricing to big box stores so all of them need to go bankrupt before the full price increase takes effect.
- wqaatwt 1y ago
  EU did this years ago when they started applying VAT on small packages. You can still easily buy as much Chinese stuff as you lik, though. Chaos and uncertainty seem like a much bigger issue in the US than forcing foreign retailers to compete on an even footing with local sellers.
  - swasheck 1y ago
    chaos and uncertainty are the result of what appears to be fundamental ignorance of how complex economic systems work. policies are being drafted and executed based on a cursory understanding of how things work, and undergirded by barely-suppressed racism.
    - dboreham 1y ago
      Chaos and uncertainty are a feature not a bug.
  - bee_rider 1y ago
    A VAT is specifically designed to try and distort the market less (by taxing the value added at each step). With a tariff the whole point in the distortion, the goal is to make the imported goods less competitive.
ghaff 1y ago
There is probably a subset of people here who ordered consumer goods from Alibaba or wherever but I literally couldn't tell you the last time I ordered something (directly) from somewhere international.
watwut 1y ago
It was used to buy stuff from abroad. Now, selling the stuff to USA requires the seller to pay US tax on behalf of the American citizen to US government and then take that tax back from the American citizen. It is ridiculous. And also, if you are buying/selling low amounts and there is an intentional legal rule that says "small mounts are not taxed", then you are not avoiding anything nor using a loophole. You are legitimately buying a Canadian or Mexican item.
- 4ndrewl 1y ago
  Surely it's "the Mexicans" that are going to pay the tariffs? /s
croes 1y ago
Postal traffic doesn’t mean no tariffs or duty, it just means it was shipped from outside the US. But now it’s an unknown risk to ship because you don’t know if the tariffs you calculated when you send the package are the same as when it arrives. Get used to empty shelves and less choices at a higher price. Lose-Lose-Lose
kaitai 1y ago
Don't worry, it also hits birthday cards from my cousins, Christmas presents from my siblings, care packages with those favorite candies and coffees that aren't sold in the US. My sibling can't send me hand-knit items or hand-me-down kids items, items truly of de minimis monetary value. It may be accomplishing what was intended -- but I don't think that people in the US (even those paying attention) understand what was intended. The lack of clarity in terms of regulations and collection of fees/tariffs show that it is not about efficiently collecting the $ but instead about breaking the chain of goods, from big business to small business to family ties, and cutting off flow to the USPS, supporting the privatization of the entity. I agree that the de minimis exemption was being abused at scale. I'm also salty that my family can't send birthday or Christmas presents, even a home-made card. Whatever you want to say about this administration, always look one level down for the wholesale reconfiguration of supply chain and international connections that they're aiming for.
- swasheck 1y ago
  > It may be accomplishing what was intended -- but I don't think that people in the US (even those paying attention) understand what was intended. this is what i suspect too. most of his common supporters i interact with parrot the “america first will revitalize the economy and job market” and then when that doesnt happen they do the same with “i’m willing to deal with temporary bit of pain in order to ensure american interests are protected.” these comments are almost always framed against the Obama and Biden administrations and never stand on their own merit (e.g. “unlike biden who …”). to be perfectly fair, I’m not entirely sure what the ultimate goal is, though. My perception of the character of the person of the president has been dim for many decades so when it’s something that he champions I immediately chalk it up to something that would serve his own self interest above that of any group of other people
  - dboreham 1y ago
    The goal is to hurt people thereby providing narcissistic supply.
- iwontberude 1y ago
blackguardx 1y ago
The purpose of de minimus is to streamline small shipments, commercial or not. It can't really be abused unless the declared value is false and it is really over $800. If you are taking issue with Temu-like shipments, that is more of a postal treaty issue.
michaelmrose 1y ago
Why would 80% of postal traffic NOT be commercial in a world with phones, video conferencing and email?

davidw 1y ago

So what's everyone think is a good place for their money to be? I'm pretty vexxed by this question. To me it seems obvious that a lot of what is happening is going to hurt, both short term (tariffs) and long term (destruction of the US advantage in science), but markets have kept going up and up.

4ndrewl 1y ago
Gold and other commodities. The usual.
Mistletoe 1y ago
Hoping to do this in 2026. https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/12/16/three-secret-ingredients-of-the-most-efficient-portfolios/ https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/12/16/three-secret-ingredie... Something like the Frontier-3. Small cap value, long term treasuries, and gold. That portfolio does amazing at all time periods and still hit 10% a year in the lost decade after the 2000 crash.
notpachet 1y ago
> So what's everyone think is a good place for their money to be? Reinvested into the fabric of your local community.
- davidw 1y ago
  I do a lot of that with my time, rather than money, but it won't pay the mortgage.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - notpachet 1y ago
    Time is money, friend.

jmpman 1y ago

It feels like the US individual tax rates are on the left hand side of the larger curve especially for high earners. It’s especially to the left for estate taxes. If these were corrected to maximize revenue, I doubt we would have these gaps. Didn’t hear Elon proposing that.

bpt3 1y ago
The US has the most progressive income tax system in the developed world, and its middle and lower classes are probably the least taxed (due to the combination of the statement above and the lack of a VAT). I'm not sure where this misconception comes from that the upper class of the US would be more highly taxed elsewhere, but it continues to pollute any attempts to have honest discussions about reform.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- quesera 1y ago
  > I'm not sure where this misconception comes from that the upper class of the US would be more highly taxed elsewhere In the relevant comparison cases, this does not appear to be a misconception. I am not an expert in global taxation, and with the caveat that tax rates have many complications ... some quick research suggests the following: A top-bracket earner from Texas would have a higher tax rate in 55 other countries, e.g. Aruba, Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Canada, Chile, China, Croatia, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Greenland, Iceland, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Morocco, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, United Kingdom, Zimbabwe. (I skipped some) A top-bracket earner from California would have a higher tax rate in 11 other countries: Aruba, Austria, Belgium, Canada (the parts where people live), Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Japan, Portugal, Spain. (You might argue that "upper class" does not include "earners", which would be a good way to be technically correct but would miss the point.) Additionally, the capital gains rate is higher in 24 other countries, including most of the obvious ones. And the top corporate tax rate is higher in 133 other countries.

pessimizer 1y ago

It's long overdue. I'm not sure exactly how long bitcoin, tech stock speculation and private equity rollups were supposed to support an actual economy. The question is whether you impose protectionism before or after you crater. > I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession because that one wrecked an entire generation in terms of wealth and psychology. It's going to be longer, and worse. Especially since there's no one in the ruling class that doesn't think that the way to get out of recessions is the massive-scale disinvestment that comes with austerity. We only got out of the last one because while America was preaching austerity, it was giving handouts to every wealthy person in America, while Europe was actually dumb enough to do austerity for real. Upper-middle class people will be fine. During covid their wealth doubled through no particular effort of their own. It was just a gift from taxpayers to show them we love them.

mmastrac 1y ago

From someone outside the US (Canada) and in a country that's been abused by its giant next-door neighbour -- longer than just the current, explicit abuse -- I kinda hope this recession is deep and hurts badly. We've already seen some huge, positive structural changes to our economy and a down-and-out, bleeding US will have nothing but positive effects for the rest of us. I'd have some sympathy but this is an entirely self-inflicted wound and Americans could collectively use a bit of humility.

cmrdporcupine 1y ago
> We've already seen some huge, positive structural changes to our economy None of this is good for working Canadians right now. The shit is about to hit the proverbial fan in this country in the next few months. And as bad as things might get in the US they're likely to be worse here. Maybe in the long run we'll be on a stronger footing but it could also just lead to even more entrenched monopolies in the Canadian economy, and a victimized Canadian consumer.
wqaatwt 1y ago
Unfortunately regardless of whose fault is its hard to imagine Canada will be doing better than the US . It’s just to reliant on US economically. e.g. just like the tariffs which are hurting Canada much more than the US.
justinrubek 1y ago
What a vile response. I hope you feel some of the pain that you wish to dish out. There are a lot of us in the US who don't want this bullshit and haven't wanted it. A lot.
- ehnto 1y ago
  Then I hope they vote next time. I am not as optimistic as the parent comment, about a US recession being of benefit to the rest of the world. I think we're all various degrees of fucked if it all falls apart, though it is probably true that other countries will benefit in the long run.
- 1y ago

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

kilroy123 1y ago

"History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes." I think there will be a depression, not just a recession. I really hope I'm wrong.

throwawayohio 1y ago
I think you're right, unfortunately. Looking at the causes and the current actions of the US government (and, other governments worldwide tbh), this looks like an almost deliberate attempt to create a new class divide and supply of low-education workers. A depression would cement this. If you aren't already rich by the time it really kicks off, you probably won't make it out.
- AnimalMuppet 1y ago
  "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." On the other hand, "Sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice." In the end, it doesn't matter whether these are incompetent or malicious people. These are people who are going to ruin a lot of lives around the world. The trick is, how do we get them out of power (in several countries) before they do too much damage?
AnimalMuppet 1y ago
From an old cartoon that I remember: "A depression can't happen, and even if it does it will never be called by that name."

PhantomHour 1y ago

> I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession Not a chance. Were it just the tariffs, the recession would be quite small. The tariffs might even be cancelled if the SCOTUS remembers to do it's job. But it's not just the tariffs. The US economy is currently being kept afloat by AI R&D and infrastructure spending. It's stock market kept alive by 7 companies who are all neck deep in AI hype. This not only disguises the malaise in the rest of the US economy, it's a bubble. Everyone knows it. Nvidia's the only one making any money and even they are now relying on vendor financing and other such red flags. Even one who believes that the technology of AI is here to stay, has to face the reality that it's not a golden goose of infinite dollar bills. We're looking at something that's going to be at least as bad as the Dotcom crash. 'At least' because while the bubble is of only comparable size, other conditions are much worse. Trump is trying to seize the fed. Big Tech is tearing the copper wiring out of it's own walls to keep AI going a little longer, and their plans for cutting costs is to dramatically increase H1Bs and outsourcing. (One wonders if there might be a non-economic reason behind this, given it's one specific country they're seeking to hire from >.>) And underneath it all: A timebomb. Much, much, much more of consumer spending in 2025 is from pensioners than it was in 2000. When the stock market eats a 50% loss and stay there for a decade, those pensions will be cut dramatically. This drives down consumer spending, in turn driving down the stock market, a vicious cycle.