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China's carmakers are heading for a crash

19 points by thelastgallon 1y ago

SilverElfin 1y ago
What does this mean for American car makers? It’s odd that cars are getting pricier and people keep buying them. A family SUV costs 50k now. At some point with unemployment growing, this will crater. And American car makers won’t be able to sustain their expenses, like paying workers at current rates.
- jwilber 1y ago
  Right? Prices skyrocketed for all cars after COVID and never came down. At least some manufacturers have seen a pretty big increase in quality lately (Kia). Can’t say the same for our domestic manufacturers tbh. I wonder how much of this language is just anti-Chinese. “Slumping” costs for price decreases. Whatever the outcome, it’s clear I’d much rather prefer to be purchasing a car in China than America at the moment. Probably nicer roads to drive on, too, if I’m being honest.
  - Fade_Dance 1y ago
    >Prices skyrocketed for all cars after COVID Along with everything else, because of inflation. Ex: New Chevy Trax is within $1k of a 2011 Ford Focus MSRP, and considerably lower than something like a 2011 Ford Fusion sedan MSRP inflation adjusted. Americans do not buy econo-models. Chevy Spark, Nissan Versa, Mitsubishi Mirage, list goes on. Almost all of them had bad sales numbers, and most are now gone from the market because of that. I am of the opposite opinion, and think that the latest wave of cheap compact crossovers is by far the best entry level offering from US companies in years. Heck, even Buick is doing well with the Envista. I'm definitely target market (drive a sub 100hp asian compact no longer offered in US markets), and honestly think the new 3cyl Trax is actually an appealing cheap little vehicle, which I never would have considered before from a US manufacturer.
    - SilverElfin 1y ago
      Are there any cars left under 20k?
      - linotype 1y ago
        At some point there will be no car for sale less than $50k. Without factoring in inflation, price is meaningless.
    - jwilber 1y ago
      In one year alone, used car prices rose over 40%. That market has not corrected itself since then. That is not as simple to dismiss as, “prices rise everywhere: inflation.” https://www.collegecounts529.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/October-2021-Market-Alert.pdf https://www.collegecounts529.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/... https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/used-car-prices-have-surged-so-far-in-2025-062725.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/used-car-prices-have-su...
  - linotype 1y ago
    It’s not “Anti-Chinese”. If Australia subsidized their car sector and exported a bunch of cars at a purchase price less than the cost to make a car in the US, the complaint would be the same.
simne 1y ago
Looked carefully on graphs, and don't see reasons for worry. All looks like recession, where measured changes within measurement error (~2..3 percents very usual for such things). Even very much looks like typical market without much grow or shrink - sales of premium brands (Audi, Benz) suffered less than mass-market (Toyota), but again, all changes within measurement error. Need more data to make serious conclusions about possible crash. Only could say one conclusion - Chinese always made strange things, in this case constantly grow production capacity without demand. I don't understand where they planned to sell twice as now number of machines, except if planned to supply some big war.
general1465 1y ago
To me the biggest concern with Chinese cars is the parts availability after manufacturing of the model has ended. It is not profitable to keep huge stocks of parts around, so it is unlikely that Chinese manufacturers are going to have them.
fspeech 1y ago
When their EV transition is complete most of the old gas car lines will be obsoleted. As these are not the same owners and the EV factories are trying to accelerate the ICE carmakers' demise, it doesn't make sense to add the two capacities together. Interestingly the ICE makers are mostly JVs between foreign brands and Chinese SOEs, so the process of driving out the foreign brands also hurts the big SOEs.
onetokeoverthe 1y ago
[dead]
rstuart4133 1y ago
I found myself thinking the manufacturers going broke and market chaos is what I would expect to see during the changeover from ICE to EV's. From 2020 to 2025, production of EV's went from 6.3% to around 50%. Give the principle cost of an EV is the battery, and battery prices having dropped about 30% in the past year, of course the price curve is taking a downward dip. The price may be crashing, by the industry produced 2.3% more cars than the previous year. If the price keeps dropping, that will keep making more and more up. That ain't what I would call a crash. But I guess if the USA's tariff wall does keep these Chinese EV's bay for a while, then when it collapses we will get to witness a real crash as the USA car industry implodes.
- mensetmanusman 1y ago
  China is free to sell cars here tariff free after opening up factory production here. It’s the same that China requires.

19 points by thelastgallon 1y ago

What does this mean for American car makers? It’s odd that cars are getting pricier and people keep buying them. A family SUV costs 50k now. At some point with unemployment growing, this will crater. And American car makers won’t be able to sustain their expenses, like paying workers at current rates.

jwilber 1y ago
Right? Prices skyrocketed for all cars after COVID and never came down. At least some manufacturers have seen a pretty big increase in quality lately (Kia). Can’t say the same for our domestic manufacturers tbh. I wonder how much of this language is just anti-Chinese. “Slumping” costs for price decreases. Whatever the outcome, it’s clear I’d much rather prefer to be purchasing a car in China than America at the moment. Probably nicer roads to drive on, too, if I’m being honest.
- Fade_Dance 1y ago
  >Prices skyrocketed for all cars after COVID Along with everything else, because of inflation. Ex: New Chevy Trax is within $1k of a 2011 Ford Focus MSRP, and considerably lower than something like a 2011 Ford Fusion sedan MSRP inflation adjusted. Americans do not buy econo-models. Chevy Spark, Nissan Versa, Mitsubishi Mirage, list goes on. Almost all of them had bad sales numbers, and most are now gone from the market because of that. I am of the opposite opinion, and think that the latest wave of cheap compact crossovers is by far the best entry level offering from US companies in years. Heck, even Buick is doing well with the Envista. I'm definitely target market (drive a sub 100hp asian compact no longer offered in US markets), and honestly think the new 3cyl Trax is actually an appealing cheap little vehicle, which I never would have considered before from a US manufacturer.
  - SilverElfin 1y ago
    Are there any cars left under 20k?
    - linotype 1y ago
      At some point there will be no car for sale less than $50k. Without factoring in inflation, price is meaningless.
  - jwilber 1y ago
    In one year alone, used car prices rose over 40%. That market has not corrected itself since then. That is not as simple to dismiss as, “prices rise everywhere: inflation.” https://www.collegecounts529.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/October-2021-Market-Alert.pdf https://www.collegecounts529.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/... https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/used-car-prices-have-surged-so-far-in-2025-062725.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/used-car-prices-have-su...
- linotype 1y ago
  It’s not “Anti-Chinese”. If Australia subsidized their car sector and exported a bunch of cars at a purchase price less than the cost to make a car in the US, the complaint would be the same.

simne 1y ago

Looked carefully on graphs, and don't see reasons for worry. All looks like recession, where measured changes within measurement error (~2..3 percents very usual for such things). Even very much looks like typical market without much grow or shrink - sales of premium brands (Audi, Benz) suffered less than mass-market (Toyota), but again, all changes within measurement error. Need more data to make serious conclusions about possible crash. Only could say one conclusion - Chinese always made strange things, in this case constantly grow production capacity without demand. I don't understand where they planned to sell twice as now number of machines, except if planned to supply some big war.

general1465 1y ago

To me the biggest concern with Chinese cars is the parts availability after manufacturing of the model has ended. It is not profitable to keep huge stocks of parts around, so it is unlikely that Chinese manufacturers are going to have them.

fspeech 1y ago

When their EV transition is complete most of the old gas car lines will be obsoleted. As these are not the same owners and the EV factories are trying to accelerate the ICE carmakers' demise, it doesn't make sense to add the two capacities together. Interestingly the ICE makers are mostly JVs between foreign brands and Chinese SOEs, so the process of driving out the foreign brands also hurts the big SOEs.

onetokeoverthe 1y ago

[dead]

rstuart4133 1y ago

I found myself thinking the manufacturers going broke and market chaos is what I would expect to see during the changeover from ICE to EV's. From 2020 to 2025, production of EV's went from 6.3% to around 50%. Give the principle cost of an EV is the battery, and battery prices having dropped about 30% in the past year, of course the price curve is taking a downward dip. The price may be crashing, by the industry produced 2.3% more cars than the previous year. If the price keeps dropping, that will keep making more and more up. That ain't what I would call a crash. But I guess if the USA's tariff wall does keep these Chinese EV's bay for a while, then when it collapses we will get to witness a real crash as the USA car industry implodes.

mensetmanusman 1y ago
China is free to sell cars here tariff free after opening up factory production here. It’s the same that China requires.