4 ms·

I think Elon's prediction was that LIDAR was too expensive and will stay too expensive. In a sense he was right, LIDAR prices did not drop and I wonder why tha

I think Elon's prediction was that LIDAR was too expensive and will stay too expensive. In a sense he was right, LIDAR prices did not drop and I wonder why that is?

yndoendo 1y ago
Investments into re-engineering production to bring down cost is done when there is a market large enough for said product. True self-driving is still a baby that needs to grow and cannot even compete against an adult human with 30+ years of experience. As self driving actually forms to that level the market will grown.
- fooblaster 1y ago
  Why do all of you think prices haven't come down? I can buy an AT128 from hesai for a few hundred dollars in volume. It's higher performance than any spinning lidar I could buy in 2017.
  - weinzierl 1y ago
    Elon's bet was one LIDAR against a bunch of cameras. A few hundred dollars is still way too much when you can get the cameras for a few tens.
    - Applejinx 1y ago
      In what universe is 'a few hundred dollars is way too much' for implementing full self-driving on an autonomous vehicle that moves like, and at the speeds of and in the spaces of, an automobile? A two to four ton vehicle that can accelerate like a Ferrari and go over 100 mph, fully self-driving, and 'a few hundred dollars is way too much'. Disagree. Even as they are dialing back the claims, which may or may not affect how people use the vehicles. These things respond too quickly for flaky senses based on human sensoriums.
  - yndoendo 1y ago
    You may have interpreted that and that is not what I said. Once a product starts to sell after initial design, time is take to reduce the development cost. Try to reuse parts or replace part A with B. A machine from early 2018 can be little different than ones going out the door late 2018. _Kaizen_ was coined for this. My point of view of when mass reduction in cost will be when self-driving is cost effect secondary feature on all Toyota vehicles. I see that as the litmus test for knowing that self-driving has reached true utility. Also well designed vehicles would need a multi-sensor system to operate in self-driving mode. A human operating a car is using multi-sensor intake. Lack of multi-sensor in humans prevent them from operating a vehicle. Blind people need a secondary sensory input like walking stick. Vehicles need a multi-sensor system to prevent harming, mutilating, and killing the passengers and pedestrians.
exhilaration 1y ago
There's multiple comments in this thread pointing to Chinese car manufacturers paying under $200 for their LIDAR hardware.
- weinzierl 1y ago
  $200 is still a lot when a bunch of cameras cost maybe $20.
  - ra7 1y ago
    $200 to enable better FSD vs a decade of struggle to get FSD only partially working with $20 cameras. Which one do you think is more expensive overall?
    - weinzierl 1y ago
      The fact that we still do not have a significant number of cars with LIDAR on our streets somewhat proves which approach the auto industry considers viable for business. I am much more curious about the next ten years. If we can bring down the cost of a LIDAR unit into parity with camera systems[1], I think I know the answer. But I thought that 10 years ago and it did not happen so I wonder what is the real roadblock to make LIDAR cheap. [1] Which it won't replace, of course. What it will change is that it makes the LIDAR a regular component, not an exceptionally expensive component.
      - xnx 1y ago
        The fact that the only working self driving system uses LIDAR might say even more.
    - xnx 1y ago
      1) make it work 2) make it right 3) make it fast (or cheap in this case) Elon thinks his genius intellect allows him to skip to #3.
  - suddenexample 1y ago

I think Elon's prediction was that LIDAR was too expensive and will stay too expensive. In a sense he was right, LIDAR prices did not drop and I wonder why that is?

yndoendo 1y ago

Investments into re-engineering production to bring down cost is done when there is a market large enough for said product. True self-driving is still a baby that needs to grow and cannot even compete against an adult human with 30+ years of experience. As self driving actually forms to that level the market will grown.

fooblaster 1y ago
Why do all of you think prices haven't come down? I can buy an AT128 from hesai for a few hundred dollars in volume. It's higher performance than any spinning lidar I could buy in 2017.
- weinzierl 1y ago
  Elon's bet was one LIDAR against a bunch of cameras. A few hundred dollars is still way too much when you can get the cameras for a few tens.
  - Applejinx 1y ago
    In what universe is 'a few hundred dollars is way too much' for implementing full self-driving on an autonomous vehicle that moves like, and at the speeds of and in the spaces of, an automobile? A two to four ton vehicle that can accelerate like a Ferrari and go over 100 mph, fully self-driving, and 'a few hundred dollars is way too much'. Disagree. Even as they are dialing back the claims, which may or may not affect how people use the vehicles. These things respond too quickly for flaky senses based on human sensoriums.
- yndoendo 1y ago
  You may have interpreted that and that is not what I said. Once a product starts to sell after initial design, time is take to reduce the development cost. Try to reuse parts or replace part A with B. A machine from early 2018 can be little different than ones going out the door late 2018. _Kaizen_ was coined for this. My point of view of when mass reduction in cost will be when self-driving is cost effect secondary feature on all Toyota vehicles. I see that as the litmus test for knowing that self-driving has reached true utility. Also well designed vehicles would need a multi-sensor system to operate in self-driving mode. A human operating a car is using multi-sensor intake. Lack of multi-sensor in humans prevent them from operating a vehicle. Blind people need a secondary sensory input like walking stick. Vehicles need a multi-sensor system to prevent harming, mutilating, and killing the passengers and pedestrians.

exhilaration 1y ago

There's multiple comments in this thread pointing to Chinese car manufacturers paying under $200 for their LIDAR hardware.

weinzierl 1y ago
$200 is still a lot when a bunch of cameras cost maybe $20.
- ra7 1y ago
  $200 to enable better FSD vs a decade of struggle to get FSD only partially working with $20 cameras. Which one do you think is more expensive overall?
  - weinzierl 1y ago
    The fact that we still do not have a significant number of cars with LIDAR on our streets somewhat proves which approach the auto industry considers viable for business. I am much more curious about the next ten years. If we can bring down the cost of a LIDAR unit into parity with camera systems[1], I think I know the answer. But I thought that 10 years ago and it did not happen so I wonder what is the real roadblock to make LIDAR cheap. [1] Which it won't replace, of course. What it will change is that it makes the LIDAR a regular component, not an exceptionally expensive component.
    - xnx 1y ago
      The fact that the only working self driving system uses LIDAR might say even more.
  - xnx 1y ago
    1) make it work 2) make it right 3) make it fast (or cheap in this case) Elon thinks his genius intellect allows him to skip to #3.
- suddenexample 1y ago