I agree almost entirely, but I gotta quibble a point: > so [companies like Honeywell] are going to charge you 5-10x of the cost of a Nest for the same feature

I agree almost entirely, but I gotta quibble a point: > so [companies like Honeywell] are going to charge you 5-10x of the cost of a Nest for the same feature set but with a local-first implementation "Established" companies also see the long-term value of subscriptions and are also hopping on that bandwagon. Additionally, customers are extremely sensitive to up-front price, so a product that's more expensive up-front but with no subscription fee and longer-term value will have trouble finding a foothold in the market compared to cheaper but subscription-based alternatives. Especially if the alternatives are "1 year free!" as they usually are.