It's the former. The unemployment rate for the previous four years was pretty good and quite stable. 0.3% is not a large deviation. Here's historical data: ht

It's the former. The unemployment rate for the previous four years was pretty good and quite stable. 0.3% is not a large deviation. Here's historical data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE During recessions, the number goes to around 10%. That's where it was in the wake of the 2007 crash. It fell pretty much consistently after that -- except for an enormous but short surge during COVID lockdowns. It bottomed out around 3.5% -- below the Fed target, and they raised rates to try to fix that.