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In any field where there is a creative element, progress comes in fits and starts that are difficult to predict in advance. No one can accurately predict when w
by madrox 1y ago
In any field where there is a creative element, progress comes in fits and starts that are difficult to predict in advance. No one can accurately predict when we'll get the cure for cancer, for example, in spite of people working on it.
But that isn't how investors operate. They want to know what they will get in exchange for giving a company a billion dollars. If you're running an AI business, you need to set expectations. How do you do that? Go do the thing you know you can do on a schedule, like standing up a new GPU data center.
I don't think the bitter lesson is misunderstood in quite the way the author describes. I think most are well aware we're approaching the data wall within a couple years. However, if you're not in academia you're not trying to solve that problem; you're trying to get your bag before it happens.
That may sound a little flip, but this is yet another incarnation of the hungry beast: https://stvp.stanford.edu/clips/the-hungry-beast-and-the-ugly-baby/ https://stvp.stanford.edu/clips/the-hungry-beast-and-the-ugl...
- simianwords 1y agoWhy do you assume investors don’t know about this? They know some investments follow the power law - very few of them work out but they bring most value. The very existence of openAI and Anthropic are proof of it happening. Imagine you were an investor and you know what you know now (creativity can’t be predicted). How would you then invest in companies? Your answer might converge on existing VC strategies.
- madrox 1y agoI don't assume that at all. Investors absolutely know, but investment is predicated on returns. You can't do that if you can't give a timeline for when value will be generated unless your investment is so small it's practically a donation. Obviously you can invest in moonshots, but you don't want to bet your whole portfolio. Why do you think OpenAI had the governing structure it did before it made its breakthroughs but suddenly both them and Anthropic can do insane raises?