This says 1% movements happen in 20% of trading days, or about once a week: https://www.optimisticallie.com/p/running-the-numbers https://www.optimisticallie.co

This says 1% movements happen in 20% of trading days, or about once a week: https://www.optimisticallie.com/p/running-the-numbers https://www.optimisticallie.com/p/running-the-numbers Given that the prior for this is so high along with how many different beliefs there are about why the stock market changes, I'd say that there's a fairly low probability that any given news article's explanation is the real reason behind why it moved 1%.