That threshold would require more than 30 orders of magnitude improvement in the probability given a 1/100,000,000 current probability of an LLM violating align

That threshold would require more than 30 orders of magnitude improvement in the probability given a 1/100,000,000 current probability of an LLM violating alignment. The current probability is much, much higher than that, but let's cut the LLMs some slack & pretend. Improving by a factor of 10^30 is extremely unlikely.