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China may elect not to replace the whole shortfall. They may value the message it sends more.

• 0cf8612b2e1e 1y ago
  80% of soy is destined for animal feed. While there is undoubtedly some reason why chicken and pigs have historically been fed soy meal ($/kg, nutritional profile, speed of animal growth, etc) -animal feed seems very fungible. If there is a soybean deficit, seems plausible to swap to some other abundant crop.
  • jandrewrogers 1y ago
    Those crops would need to have been planted at scale months ago, with the full supply chain build-out leading up to that beforehand. The history of agricultural supply chains demonstrates that it is not nearly as agile as laypeople assume due to a long chain of sequential dependencies. You either have to find a way to consume what is already in the pipeline or go without. Governments are very sensitive to the food security implications because there isn’t much slack politically to “go without”.