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Assuming that the demand for software remains at the same level as before the infliction point. However, this is not likely to be the case (https://en.wikipedia
by _pdp_ 1y ago
Assuming that the demand for software remains at the same level as before the infliction point. However, this is not likely to be the case (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox).
What I am speculating that we will see is an increasing demand for developers. While AI will be churning more code the work that cannot be done by AI will require more developers overall then ever before.
- krapp 1y agoI'm not certain Jevon's Paradox really applies here. We're not talking about mining coal or cutting down trees to meet increased demand - we're talking about a future in which software is mostly written by other software, and AI's capabilities will be improving faster than human developers can be educated. The scale of software demand may increase but more of that demand will be met by AI than by human beings. So if the demand for developers increases at all, that increase will be minimal. And bear in mind that every aspect of every software process will be optimized as much as possible for AI automation, including languages used, so the set of work that "cannot be done by AI" will also be minimized.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- jfim 1y agoEven in the case of coal mining, jobs fell as output increased. See the two charts in https://acoel.org/the-rise-and-decline-of-coal-mining-jobs-1970-2022/ https://acoel.org/the-rise-and-decline-of-coal-mining-jobs-1... Peak coal jobs was in the 1980s but peak output was in the early 2000s, while employment went from 200k to about 75k in that period. Sure, coal might have been cheaper but it didn't translate into more jobs overall.