3 ms·
It's explained in the Wikipedia article linked in TFA. If the family was picked at random, a GG family is twice as likely to have resulted in us finding out on
by hnbad 1y ago
It's explained in the Wikipedia article linked in TFA.
If the family was picked at random, a GG family is twice as likely to have resulted in us finding out one of the children is a girl as a BG or GB family (and a BB family would be ruled out by observation) so you end up with the intuitive but in this case also entirely correct 1/2 chance.
If the family was picked from only those that have at least one girl, a GG family is equally likely as a BG or GB family (and a BB family would be ruled out again but in this case by definition) you end up with the very unintuitive 1/3 chance the article describes.
So the initial filtering is necessary to create this "paradox" (it's actually not a "paradox" but a "problem", as others have mentioned). Without it, the intuitive answer is actually the correct answer.