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The thing I keep coming back to with China is that it's (mostly) mono-ethnic and that ethnicity is rapidly aging, such as South Korea and Japan. The birth rate
by thefourthchime 1y ago
The thing I keep coming back to with China is that it's (mostly) mono-ethnic and that ethnicity is rapidly aging, such as South Korea and Japan. The birth rate is tragic, and soon they're going to have a lot of infrastructure and old people and no one around to support it.
The other shoe that is waiting to drop is the amount of spending and shadowy debts that to prop up the real estate industry. The vast majority of Chinese have invested their life savings into what looks like a mirage.
Thirdly, they've become the world's factory. But now now they've priced themselves out and it's moving to places like Vietnam and India. So now what's left? Consumer spending? High tech? It looks like they need to reinvent themselves again.
- aurareturn 1y agoTo be honest, you can write similar gloomy vibes for any country. Every country has its own set of problems. No?
- thefourthchime 1y agoNo, USA doesn't have those problems. South Asia / India can grow its industrial base. I don't know of another country with such a terrible real estate bubble (Japan in the 90s maybe).
- kelipso 1y agoi don’t think real estate bubble is a “real economy” thing. It’s just property prices, so states with strong influence over the economy should be able to handle it fine.