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>China's global economic and political dominance in this century could be so total that future historians will come to think of the entire modern history of Eur

>China's global economic and political dominance in this century could be so total that future historians will come to think of the entire modern history of Europe and the US as a mere setup for China becoming what it is That's surely an interesting take when their demographics are absolutely imploding, and their economy is rife with state sponsored excess funded by debt. Say what you will about capital markets, but they do tend to deliver things that are actually desired and economically valuable given the right pricing incentives. I've long argued that we should replace our income tax with a progressive but heavy carbon tax. This would be far more effective than federal greenhouse gas regs and incentive programs. Unfortunately they're politically dead on arrival because they would tax the rich, powerful and politically connected far more than your average joe.

kamikazeturtles 1y ago
> That's surely an interesting take when their demographics are absolutely imploding, and their economy is rife with state sponsored excess funded by debt. “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.” - Sun Tzu, The Art of War I don't believe any of the stats coming out of China. I think it is best to approach data coming out of adversarial countries with lots of paranoia.
- kilroy123 1y ago
  What? Demographics are collapsing all across the globe. If anything, they have consistently under-reported how bad it is.
- thombee 1y ago
  So should China trust US stats and data? Since the US is apparently an adversarial country?
  - jonnybgood 1y ago
    There are only disadvantages for the US to skew stats and data since much of the global economy depends on it. Whereas it’s advantageous for China to skew stats and data for the time being as it rises to be a peer adversary militarily and economically.
  - ohdeargodno 1y ago
    >So should China trust US stats and data? As of a few months ago, the US has demonstrably proven that they are willing to lie about stats and data because the president throws a hissy fit at reality, so, no, they absolutely shouldn't.
kiba 1y ago
That's surely an interesting take when their demographics are absolutely imploding, and their economy is rife with state sponsored excess funded by debt. If anti-aging tech arrives in the next two decades, demographic will stop imploding, their and everyone else. It becomes a matter of execution. I've long argued that we should replace our income tax with a progressive but heavy carbon tax. This would be far more effective than federal greenhouse gas regs and incentive programs. Unfortunately they're politically dead on arrival because they would tax the rich, powerful and politically connected far more than your average joe. Piguovian taxes and LVT are good ideas if politically difficult to implement, yet I am cautiously optimistic. There had been news about accurate appraisal of land in Baltimore that made local media coverage.
cpursley 1y ago
Even with an imploding population, they still will be graduating more scientists and engineers than the entire combined west. Furthermore, AI and automation is going to mitigate and offset this in the developed world.
tokioyoyo 1y ago
China still has 1/3 of the population living in rural areas. They can support their infrastructure and growth for the time being until they find a way out of the population problems. By the time it becomes a real problem for them, it could be worse everywhere else in the world due to insane amount of investments in automation.
ohdeargodno 1y ago
>and their economy is rife with state sponsored excess funded by debt. Whereas the US is better with state sponsored VC funded debt ? >but they do tend to deliver things that are actually desired and economically valuable given the right pricing incentives. No, they don't. Any look at the market in the past 15 years will tell you that they don't, and that nothing major or of value has been produced by "the market". It's all propped on debt and infinite money printing.

kamikazeturtles 1y ago

> That's surely an interesting take when their demographics are absolutely imploding, and their economy is rife with state sponsored excess funded by debt. “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.” - Sun Tzu, The Art of War I don't believe any of the stats coming out of China. I think it is best to approach data coming out of adversarial countries with lots of paranoia.

kilroy123 1y ago
What? Demographics are collapsing all across the globe. If anything, they have consistently under-reported how bad it is.
thombee 1y ago
So should China trust US stats and data? Since the US is apparently an adversarial country?
- jonnybgood 1y ago
  There are only disadvantages for the US to skew stats and data since much of the global economy depends on it. Whereas it’s advantageous for China to skew stats and data for the time being as it rises to be a peer adversary militarily and economically.
- ohdeargodno 1y ago
  >So should China trust US stats and data? As of a few months ago, the US has demonstrably proven that they are willing to lie about stats and data because the president throws a hissy fit at reality, so, no, they absolutely shouldn't.

kiba 1y ago

That's surely an interesting take when their demographics are absolutely imploding, and their economy is rife with state sponsored excess funded by debt. If anti-aging tech arrives in the next two decades, demographic will stop imploding, their and everyone else. It becomes a matter of execution. I've long argued that we should replace our income tax with a progressive but heavy carbon tax. This would be far more effective than federal greenhouse gas regs and incentive programs. Unfortunately they're politically dead on arrival because they would tax the rich, powerful and politically connected far more than your average joe. Piguovian taxes and LVT are good ideas if politically difficult to implement, yet I am cautiously optimistic. There had been news about accurate appraisal of land in Baltimore that made local media coverage.

cpursley 1y ago

Even with an imploding population, they still will be graduating more scientists and engineers than the entire combined west. Furthermore, AI and automation is going to mitigate and offset this in the developed world.

tokioyoyo 1y ago

China still has 1/3 of the population living in rural areas. They can support their infrastructure and growth for the time being until they find a way out of the population problems. By the time it becomes a real problem for them, it could be worse everywhere else in the world due to insane amount of investments in automation.

ohdeargodno 1y ago

>and their economy is rife with state sponsored excess funded by debt. Whereas the US is better with state sponsored VC funded debt ? >but they do tend to deliver things that are actually desired and economically valuable given the right pricing incentives. No, they don't. Any look at the market in the past 15 years will tell you that they don't, and that nothing major or of value has been produced by "the market". It's all propped on debt and infinite money printing.