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The rebuttal to the classic Chinese collapse #s. - 300% is one measure of PRC aggregate debt that PRC collapsers want to compare with US government debt, ~120%
by maxglute 1y ago
The rebuttal to the classic Chinese collapse #s.
- 300% is one measure of PRC aggregate debt that PRC collapsers want to compare with US government debt, ~120%. US aggregate debt is like 700-800%.
- The cities are generally fine, the recent retarded 1/2 local gov "sinking" / revenue chart being passed around based on Shih/Elkobi study using none standard metrics. The chart itself collated by retard who doesn't know PRC cities receive lots of central gov funding (~60%), so structurally local gov can spend more % of local revenue paying off debt. Seems like they're 100% debt servicing when it's minority share. Or else you know... all the those cities would have collapsed from no service. Also PRC also does try to pay off debt when it's prudent i.e. the principle, instead of rolling YoY forever. Hence they still have much better borrowing rates. Yes LGFVs and some shadow debts get roll overs, but PRC also does structural deleveraging to actually pay off debt - why local gov debt repayment is high last few years.
TLDR, think of PRC as household with ~1/2 the total debt as US, meanwhile PRC tries pays off principle and interest. US just largely services interest, but reserve currency allows a lot of stupid spending until spending catches up. I Why debt is fucking crazy in the states, is a political concern, except at the same time politicians can play fuckarounditis like it doesn't matter. A trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon you're talking bout real money. Maybe.