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Why can't you just disregard the existing boy and reframe the question as the probability that the other child is a boy, and the space of all possible answers i
by jimmaswell 1y ago
Why can't you just disregard the existing boy and reframe the question as the probability that the other child is a boy, and the space of all possible answers is BG and BB, equally probable (1/2)? Not really following explanations I find online.
- joshuaissac 1y agoBecause GB is also a possibility. You are not told that the existing boy is the elder child.
- jimmaswell 1y agohttps://www.online-python.com/Q5leTWuvb6 https://www.online-python.com/Q5leTWuvb6 https://www.online-python.com/RueVd2514m https://www.online-python.com/RueVd2514m No matter how I frame or interpret this question, the birthdays and birth order appear completely irrelevant - the results are still ~0.50 as expected. Whatever the author was trying to say, they didn't communicate it well. I'm really curious exactly what word or phrase the author thought I was supposed to take to mean something else. If someone could edit one of these simulations to show what the author intended then that would probably be the clearest way.
- LudwigNagasena 1y agohttps://www.online-python.com/6LDtZz7lMh https://www.online-python.com/6LDtZz7lMh * Take all families with two children * Take a subset where at least one child is a boy born on Tuesday * Take a subset of the previous subset where all children are boys * The share of the 2nd subset relative to the 1st subset is around 48%
- jimmaswell 1y agoYeah, makes sense. I thought I saw someone say 1/3 which is what seemed impossible.