4 ms·

People have been predicting catastrophe for thousands of years. Without some reason to believe these people (and "a graph that shows correlation between some p

by powera 14y ago

People have been predicting catastrophe for thousands of years. Without some reason to believe these people (and "a graph that shows correlation between some points that might well be cherrypicked" doesn't count), I see no reason to give this article any credence.

crag 14y ago
Riots not catastrophe. Big difference. A catastrophic event would be something like world-wide flooding. I suppose if the food system collapsed completely (and that is possible considering the way we grow most of our food (monoculture) - but very unlikely) that would be catastrophic. It would have to happen not just in one area, though. To really effect us all. In that case grab your gun. And protect your own garden. I think this study is predicting food riots in certain areas. Highly possible.
dmix 14y ago
Indeed, the data that correlates riots with food prices needs to be backed up with more than that study. In addition, I found this statement concluding the article to be completely lacking support: "And it’s only going to get worse and worse and worse." Why should we expect food prices / rioting to get worse and worse?
- MaysonL 14y ago
  Because global climate is going to get worse and worse.
  - dmix 14y ago
    Source that this will cause high food prices? From our standpoint, technology and automation will get better and better, bringing the price of many things down. Humans have demonstrated their ability to adapt to change.
    - kamaal 14y ago
      >Humans have demonstrated their ability to adapt to change. And that realization only comes after some big wars, famines and disasters. There are only a few instances where we have changed proactively. Humans have always needed a wake up call.
    - deleted 14y ago
      [deleted]
  - mcantelon 14y ago
    Also inflation. Lots of "quantitative easing" going on.
  - ams6110 14y ago
    Remains to be seen
  - sskates 14y ago
    Instead of arguing about things in the abstract, it's possible to find actual data. Corn prices are actually expected to hold steady until July of next year and then go down: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/grain-and-oilseed/corn_quotes_settlements_futures.html http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/grain-and-oilse...
    - lifeguard 14y ago
      Check out rice and lentils. Prices are rising.
  - nl 14y ago
    Global warming may (in the mid-term) increase food production by moving the grain productive zones further north (to the Russian Steppes) were there is more land area.
- deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]
- foxylad 14y ago
  I agree he should have explained "worse and worse". I assume it's supply and demand - urbanisation and climate change will reduce supply, population growth will increase demand.
ChuckMcM 14y ago
Exactly right. The entire article seems to be based on food prices. People have been predicting future behavior of complex systems for ever, and they are always wrong. Its very strange at first but it arises from the challenge of predicting things you don't know a-priori. The Indian government could (not that they will but could) nationalize several million hectares of arable land and apply modern farming technology to them. Would double the amount of food. China's modernization program is resulting steadily growing production [2]. The price of food rises, and the production of food rises as well. Complex systems respond to a variety of inputs, not particularly easy to predict their collapse unless you can show something which can force them into failure. [1] "According to the latest FAO report, the average yield of rice in India is 2.3 tonne/ha as against the global average of 4.374 tonne/ha. " http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-04-02/news/31275500_1_tonne-record-wheat-and-rice-varieties http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-04-02/news... [2] http://jxb.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2011/05/06/jxb.err132/F1.expansion.html http://jxb.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2011/05/06/jxb.e...
- kamaal 14y ago
  I think in India and around the world. People starve less because of shortage of food, but more because they can't afford it. Distribution is a huge problem. Often moving food from point A to B is so expensive the economics of it just don't make any sense. You can double you production. But what good will that do if the cost of moving it to hungry masses is not feasible? So really its not so complex, at the end it all boils down to a term called 'energy' and we just keep going in rounds around it.
  - JumpCrisscross 14y ago
    »"it all boils down to...energy" Actually, in India, it doesn't. The energy intensity of an ideal distribution network in India has a fraction of the friction of the existing system. For the case provided it boils down to efficacy of governance, corruption, and transparency.
    - ChuckMcM 14y ago
foxylad 14y ago
Catastrophes have been happening for thousands of years. Read "Collapse" by Jared Diamond. He documents the collapse of a dozen significant civilisations, usually because they used up some other resource (water or wood for instance) required to feed themselves. It was also remarkable how quickly they self-destructed - usually within a few years, and often with evidence of cannibalism. Starving people don't play nice.

by powera 14y ago

crag 14y ago

Riots not catastrophe. Big difference. A catastrophic event would be something like world-wide flooding. I suppose if the food system collapsed completely (and that is possible considering the way we grow most of our food (monoculture) - but very unlikely) that would be catastrophic. It would have to happen not just in one area, though. To really effect us all. In that case grab your gun. And protect your own garden. I think this study is predicting food riots in certain areas. Highly possible.

dmix 14y ago

Indeed, the data that correlates riots with food prices needs to be backed up with more than that study. In addition, I found this statement concluding the article to be completely lacking support: "And it’s only going to get worse and worse and worse." Why should we expect food prices / rioting to get worse and worse?

MaysonL 14y ago
Because global climate is going to get worse and worse.
- dmix 14y ago
  Source that this will cause high food prices? From our standpoint, technology and automation will get better and better, bringing the price of many things down. Humans have demonstrated their ability to adapt to change.
  - kamaal 14y ago
    >Humans have demonstrated their ability to adapt to change. And that realization only comes after some big wars, famines and disasters. There are only a few instances where we have changed proactively. Humans have always needed a wake up call.
  - deleted 14y ago
    [deleted]
- mcantelon 14y ago
  Also inflation. Lots of "quantitative easing" going on.
- ams6110 14y ago
  Remains to be seen
- sskates 14y ago
  Instead of arguing about things in the abstract, it's possible to find actual data. Corn prices are actually expected to hold steady until July of next year and then go down: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/grain-and-oilseed/corn_quotes_settlements_futures.html http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/grain-and-oilse...
  - lifeguard 14y ago
    Check out rice and lentils. Prices are rising.
- nl 14y ago
  Global warming may (in the mid-term) increase food production by moving the grain productive zones further north (to the Russian Steppes) were there is more land area.
deleted 14y ago
[deleted]
foxylad 14y ago
I agree he should have explained "worse and worse". I assume it's supply and demand - urbanisation and climate change will reduce supply, population growth will increase demand.

ChuckMcM 14y ago

Exactly right. The entire article seems to be based on food prices. People have been predicting future behavior of complex systems for ever, and they are always wrong. Its very strange at first but it arises from the challenge of predicting things you don't know a-priori. The Indian government could (not that they will but could) nationalize several million hectares of arable land and apply modern farming technology to them. Would double the amount of food. China's modernization program is resulting steadily growing production [2]. The price of food rises, and the production of food rises as well. Complex systems respond to a variety of inputs, not particularly easy to predict their collapse unless you can show something which can force them into failure. [1] "According to the latest FAO report, the average yield of rice in India is 2.3 tonne/ha as against the global average of 4.374 tonne/ha. " http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-04-02/news/31275500_1_tonne-record-wheat-and-rice-varieties http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-04-02/news... [2] http://jxb.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2011/05/06/jxb.err132/F1.expansion.html http://jxb.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2011/05/06/jxb.e...

kamaal 14y ago
I think in India and around the world. People starve less because of shortage of food, but more because they can't afford it. Distribution is a huge problem. Often moving food from point A to B is so expensive the economics of it just don't make any sense. You can double you production. But what good will that do if the cost of moving it to hungry masses is not feasible? So really its not so complex, at the end it all boils down to a term called 'energy' and we just keep going in rounds around it.
- JumpCrisscross 14y ago
  »"it all boils down to...energy" Actually, in India, it doesn't. The energy intensity of an ideal distribution network in India has a fraction of the friction of the existing system. For the case provided it boils down to efficacy of governance, corruption, and transparency.
  - ChuckMcM 14y ago

foxylad 14y ago

Catastrophes have been happening for thousands of years. Read "Collapse" by Jared Diamond. He documents the collapse of a dozen significant civilisations, usually because they used up some other resource (water or wood for instance) required to feed themselves. It was also remarkable how quickly they self-destructed - usually within a few years, and often with evidence of cannibalism. Starving people don't play nice.