6 ms·

Job prospects down, immigration up. Someone make it make sense.

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> immigration up "In January 2025, 53.3 million immigrants lived in the United States – the largest number ever recorded. In the ensuing months, however, more immigrants left the country or were deported than arrived. By June, the country’s foreign-born population had shrunk by more than a million people, marking its first decline since the 1960s" [1]. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/21/key-findings-about-us-immigrants/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/21/key-findi...
- deleted 1y ago
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- codyklimdev 1y ago
  So now it's only 52 million? Thank goodness, problem solved!
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > now it's only 52 million? You're moving the goalposts. There is no paradox--the job market is down and so is immigration. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/21/key-findings-about-us-immigrants/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/21/key-findi...
    - codyklimdev 1y ago
      Doesn't change the fact that H1-Bers have turned the US IT job market harmfully hyper-competitive for US citizens.
      - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
        > Doesn't change the fact that H1-Bers have turned the US IT job market harmfully hyper-competitive for US citizens Sure, maybe. I don't know. I don't think that explains why "since the widespread adoption of generative AI, early-career workers (ages 22-25) in the most AI-exposed occupations have experienced a 13 percent relative decline in employment even after controlling for firm-level shocks. In contrast, employment for workers in less exposed fields and more experienced workers in the same occupations has remained stable or continued to grow" [1]. Unless the ratio of H1Bs in these fields to recent-college graduates has exploded in the last 5 years, immigration is not a sufficient explanation for the effect. [1] https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Canaries_BrynjolfssonChandarChen.pdf https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/...
- deleted 1y ago
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- WillPostForFood 1y ago
  Foreign born went from 4.7% of the population, to an modern high of 15.8% and has slightly backed off to 15.4% in the last year. So we are within .4 of the high point.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    I'm not saying we don't have a ton of immigration. But immigration generally booms when the job market is strong. We aren't currently seeing an anomaly; the job market is weak and immigration is down. The absolute level remains historically, though not unprecedentedly, high. But that's part of a 50-year trend that I am sceptical explains a <5-year change specific to software development.

> immigration up "In January 2025, 53.3 million immigrants lived in the United States – the largest number ever recorded. In the ensuing months, however, more immigrants left the country or were deported than arrived. By June, the country’s foreign-born population had shrunk by more than a million people, marking its first decline since the 1960s" [1]. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/21/key-findings-about-us-immigrants/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/21/key-findi...

deleted 1y ago
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codyklimdev 1y ago
So now it's only 52 million? Thank goodness, problem solved!
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > now it's only 52 million? You're moving the goalposts. There is no paradox--the job market is down and so is immigration. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/21/key-findings-about-us-immigrants/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/21/key-findi...
  - codyklimdev 1y ago
    Doesn't change the fact that H1-Bers have turned the US IT job market harmfully hyper-competitive for US citizens.
    - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
      > Doesn't change the fact that H1-Bers have turned the US IT job market harmfully hyper-competitive for US citizens Sure, maybe. I don't know. I don't think that explains why "since the widespread adoption of generative AI, early-career workers (ages 22-25) in the most AI-exposed occupations have experienced a 13 percent relative decline in employment even after controlling for firm-level shocks. In contrast, employment for workers in less exposed fields and more experienced workers in the same occupations has remained stable or continued to grow" [1]. Unless the ratio of H1Bs in these fields to recent-college graduates has exploded in the last 5 years, immigration is not a sufficient explanation for the effect. [1] https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Canaries_BrynjolfssonChandarChen.pdf https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/...
deleted 1y ago
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WillPostForFood 1y ago
Foreign born went from 4.7% of the population, to an modern high of 15.8% and has slightly backed off to 15.4% in the last year. So we are within .4 of the high point.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  I'm not saying we don't have a ton of immigration. But immigration generally booms when the job market is strong. We aren't currently seeing an anomaly; the job market is weak and immigration is down. The absolute level remains historically, though not unprecedentedly, high. But that's part of a 50-year trend that I am sceptical explains a <5-year change specific to software development.