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This could be the next iteration of stealing talent to prevent others from owning the market. An actually intelligent investor could dominate by bucking the tre

This could be the next iteration of stealing talent to prevent others from owning the market. An actually intelligent investor could dominate by bucking the trend and hire lots of smart, eager junior candidates. When other tech companies realize GenAI will never produce what they want, there will be a rush to re-hire developers. Top talent all started as junior talent. Grab that pool so nobody else will have it.

the_arun 1y ago
On a related note, we had another popular thread in HN earlier this week - (AWS CEO says using AI to replace junior staff is 'Dumbest thing I've ever heard' ) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44972151 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44972151 which is quite the opposite of this original post.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
gcanyon 1y ago
> GenAI will never produce what they want What's your argument supporting this? Ten years ago GenAI couldn't produce two coherent sentences. We've come a long way, what makes you think it won't go further?
- ecb_penguin 1y ago
  > Ten years ago GenAI couldn't produce two coherent sentences. Depending on the question, it still can't. It's kinda crazy how you view repeating probabilistic outputs as "coherent sentences". > We've come a long way, what makes you think it won't go further? Where did I say it won't go further? I said it will never produce what they want. Those are different things. Regardless, you're focused on the wrong point.
giancarlostoro 1y ago
> This could be the next iteration of stealing talent to prevent others from owning the market. An actually intelligent investor could dominate by bucking the trend and hire lots of smart, eager junior candidates. First, they'd have to identify them, which the interview process at most companies is terrible at.
frankbreetz 1y ago
The issue with hiring many juniors is, when there is another dev boom, all the juniors that were hired, now mids or seniors, are going to jump ship to whoever is going to pay them the most. So, the company can either grow talent and then pay them market rate or hire at market rates from other companies that grew them. Hiring juniors, while good for the industry in the long run, doesn't really benefit an individual company. It is game theory and it is still why senior developers make a lot of money despite there being an oversupply of juniors.
- ecb_penguin 1y ago
  > all the juniors that were hired, now mids or seniors, are going to jump ship to whoever is going to pay them the most Yeah, that's the point! > So, the company can either grow talent and then pay them market rate or hire at market rates from other companies that grew them. It's not a zero sum game. The simple fact you overlooked is not every junior jumps ship. > Hiring juniors, while good for the industry in the long run, doesn't really benefit an individual company Things that are good for the industry DO benefit individual companies. Having a large and capable talent pool is good for everyone.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > Hiring juniors, while good for the industry in the long run, doesn't really benefit an individual company If this is really a concern, require a long-term employment contract from incoming candidates.
  - taco_emoji 1y ago
    Unethical bullshit, but sure
    - ecb_penguin 1y ago
      Nothing unethical about voluntary contracts that you freely enter into. There are tradeoffs and you'd do well to acknowledge agency in this world.
simonsarris 1y ago
That is what my company does except we basically hire out of high school. After the founders, 100% of our employees (including myself) were hired directly as high school interns, kept for years during college, and got offers after graduation. I wrote about this a bit. I wish we could hire more. I am kind of shocked how few companies do it. There are a LOT of smart kids who would love a summer programming job. https://simonsarris.com/p/growing-software-developers https://simonsarris.com/p/growing-software-developers

the_arun 1y ago

On a related note, we had another popular thread in HN earlier this week - (AWS CEO says using AI to replace junior staff is 'Dumbest thing I've ever heard' ) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44972151 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44972151 which is quite the opposite of this original post.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

gcanyon 1y ago

> GenAI will never produce what they want What's your argument supporting this? Ten years ago GenAI couldn't produce two coherent sentences. We've come a long way, what makes you think it won't go further?

ecb_penguin 1y ago
> Ten years ago GenAI couldn't produce two coherent sentences. Depending on the question, it still can't. It's kinda crazy how you view repeating probabilistic outputs as "coherent sentences". > We've come a long way, what makes you think it won't go further? Where did I say it won't go further? I said it will never produce what they want. Those are different things. Regardless, you're focused on the wrong point.

giancarlostoro 1y ago

> This could be the next iteration of stealing talent to prevent others from owning the market. An actually intelligent investor could dominate by bucking the trend and hire lots of smart, eager junior candidates. First, they'd have to identify them, which the interview process at most companies is terrible at.

frankbreetz 1y ago

The issue with hiring many juniors is, when there is another dev boom, all the juniors that were hired, now mids or seniors, are going to jump ship to whoever is going to pay them the most. So, the company can either grow talent and then pay them market rate or hire at market rates from other companies that grew them. Hiring juniors, while good for the industry in the long run, doesn't really benefit an individual company. It is game theory and it is still why senior developers make a lot of money despite there being an oversupply of juniors.

ecb_penguin 1y ago
> all the juniors that were hired, now mids or seniors, are going to jump ship to whoever is going to pay them the most Yeah, that's the point! > So, the company can either grow talent and then pay them market rate or hire at market rates from other companies that grew them. It's not a zero sum game. The simple fact you overlooked is not every junior jumps ship. > Hiring juniors, while good for the industry in the long run, doesn't really benefit an individual company Things that are good for the industry DO benefit individual companies. Having a large and capable talent pool is good for everyone.
JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> Hiring juniors, while good for the industry in the long run, doesn't really benefit an individual company If this is really a concern, require a long-term employment contract from incoming candidates.
- taco_emoji 1y ago
  Unethical bullshit, but sure
  - ecb_penguin 1y ago
    Nothing unethical about voluntary contracts that you freely enter into. There are tradeoffs and you'd do well to acknowledge agency in this world.

simonsarris 1y ago

That is what my company does except we basically hire out of high school. After the founders, 100% of our employees (including myself) were hired directly as high school interns, kept for years during college, and got offers after graduation. I wrote about this a bit. I wish we could hire more. I am kind of shocked how few companies do it. There are a LOT of smart kids who would love a summer programming job. https://simonsarris.com/p/growing-software-developers https://simonsarris.com/p/growing-software-developers