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I think this is directionally correct. But we tend to remember the technologies which became mainstream after the bubble burst and forget those that fizzled or

I think this is directionally correct. But we tend to remember the technologies which became mainstream after the bubble burst and forget those that fizzled or found a much less world-changing niche. Blockchain, NFTs and 3D printing are still around and have vacuumed up billions and billions without the average person being able to tell an impact on their lives.

Ekaros 1y ago
VR is good example of money being burned and middling adoption to a not that big population. For average person it has ended up something cool, but in the end not common and forgettable. And I am not sure if it even was a bubble, but selected players just investing in it.
- FinnLobsien 1y ago
  Exactly. Right now it’s easy to look at it as a relatively niche thing. But at the time it was going to be the next big thing transforming everything. Same as 3D printing. Certainly cool and useful in some niche contexts, but it has not disrupted manufacturing.
  - gligorot 1y ago
    I would argue it disrupted engineering. So many videos on YouTube can be found of people cutting out expensive molds (for example) and getting a product to market faster and cheaper. And this is happening in companies as well (Prusa released an enterprise grade printer not long ago). At the same time, Printables and MakerWorld are flooded with…toys. They gamified their platforms and a ton of “thingy” models, ex. generic planter pots (some of them just renders, never even printed!) is the result. This certainly hides the benefit but I very much think it’s there.
    - Ekaros 1y ago
      There is places and things that work for 3d printing. Very small scale manufacturing. Prototypes. But actually selling those is somewhat hard and not scalable market. And home printing... Yeah that sounds like hobbyist to me with corresponding market. On other side you get to complex topologies and very specialised parts. Again pretty hard to scale and limited demand. In the end it is manufacturing and manufacturing is huge. But also generally does not have great margins. It has lot of competition. So 3D printing would end up there with others say makers of CNC machines, various presses and so on. Multi-billion dollar industry, but not tech.
    - FinnLobsien 1y ago
      This is precisely what I mean though. It's a technology that has found its place and is definitely useful and a value-add to society. But if we look at the types of predictions made in the early days (print a house in a day for under $5k, print any food you want at home, obviating factories you can make anything at home...), almost none of that has come through. And that doesn't mean it's a bad technology. Most technologies don't revolutionize the average person's life, but can still change corners of civilization. But compare that to the internet, which has literally changed how we do basically everything in our daily lives. I think the point is that most technologies are like 3D printing while the current narrative is that AI will be more like the internet.
ivape 1y ago
Influencers, streamers, crypto … Housing is back … Dotcom came back… Nothing was a bubble. Dotcom was into a new paradigm shift with mobile in less then a decade. These aren’t even significant timelines when you think about it. So you pull out of the AI hype today, fine. These past recent bubbles show that everything ramps back up within five years. AI-is-hype people are delusional. The computer has never been able to do what it’s doing today. We could only dream of it.
- WA 1y ago
  > AI-is-hype people are delusional. The computer has never been able to do what it’s doing today. We could only dream of it. Sure, but do the math. It doesn’t work out yet. This stuff burns money and energy. Either revenue has to go up A LOT or costs do have to come down A LOT (or quality has to suffer by using smaller models).
  - oezi 1y ago
    If we assume that every American will pay 20 USD per month for AI that's already 100bn per year. Electricity will become very cheap during the day at least with solar continuing its declining trajectory.
    - esseph 1y ago
      Except we're killing all solar and wind projects in the US :(
    - izacus 1y ago
      If I assume every American pays me 20 USD, I'm a billionaire too. But that assumption would be as silly as yours.
- kortilla 1y ago
  Eventually coming back doesn’t mean it wasn’t a bubble that popped.
  - 1y ago
scheme271 1y ago
3d printing has gone somewhat mainstream unlike the others. Manufacturers use it and it's somewhat common to see stuff that's been 3d printed being sold or created as small run prototypes.
- FinnLobsien 1y ago
  Yeah and that’s exactly what I mean. It’s found its place and is a useful technology. But it has not revolutionized entire industries like the internet, smartphone etc

Ekaros 1y ago

VR is good example of money being burned and middling adoption to a not that big population. For average person it has ended up something cool, but in the end not common and forgettable. And I am not sure if it even was a bubble, but selected players just investing in it.

FinnLobsien 1y ago
Exactly. Right now it’s easy to look at it as a relatively niche thing. But at the time it was going to be the next big thing transforming everything. Same as 3D printing. Certainly cool and useful in some niche contexts, but it has not disrupted manufacturing.
- gligorot 1y ago
  I would argue it disrupted engineering. So many videos on YouTube can be found of people cutting out expensive molds (for example) and getting a product to market faster and cheaper. And this is happening in companies as well (Prusa released an enterprise grade printer not long ago). At the same time, Printables and MakerWorld are flooded with…toys. They gamified their platforms and a ton of “thingy” models, ex. generic planter pots (some of them just renders, never even printed!) is the result. This certainly hides the benefit but I very much think it’s there.
  - Ekaros 1y ago
    There is places and things that work for 3d printing. Very small scale manufacturing. Prototypes. But actually selling those is somewhat hard and not scalable market. And home printing... Yeah that sounds like hobbyist to me with corresponding market. On other side you get to complex topologies and very specialised parts. Again pretty hard to scale and limited demand. In the end it is manufacturing and manufacturing is huge. But also generally does not have great margins. It has lot of competition. So 3D printing would end up there with others say makers of CNC machines, various presses and so on. Multi-billion dollar industry, but not tech.
  - FinnLobsien 1y ago
    This is precisely what I mean though. It's a technology that has found its place and is definitely useful and a value-add to society. But if we look at the types of predictions made in the early days (print a house in a day for under $5k, print any food you want at home, obviating factories you can make anything at home...), almost none of that has come through. And that doesn't mean it's a bad technology. Most technologies don't revolutionize the average person's life, but can still change corners of civilization. But compare that to the internet, which has literally changed how we do basically everything in our daily lives. I think the point is that most technologies are like 3D printing while the current narrative is that AI will be more like the internet.

ivape 1y ago

Influencers, streamers, crypto … Housing is back … Dotcom came back… Nothing was a bubble. Dotcom was into a new paradigm shift with mobile in less then a decade. These aren’t even significant timelines when you think about it. So you pull out of the AI hype today, fine. These past recent bubbles show that everything ramps back up within five years. AI-is-hype people are delusional. The computer has never been able to do what it’s doing today. We could only dream of it.

WA 1y ago
> AI-is-hype people are delusional. The computer has never been able to do what it’s doing today. We could only dream of it. Sure, but do the math. It doesn’t work out yet. This stuff burns money and energy. Either revenue has to go up A LOT or costs do have to come down A LOT (or quality has to suffer by using smaller models).
- oezi 1y ago
  If we assume that every American will pay 20 USD per month for AI that's already 100bn per year. Electricity will become very cheap during the day at least with solar continuing its declining trajectory.
  - esseph 1y ago
    Except we're killing all solar and wind projects in the US :(
  - izacus 1y ago
    If I assume every American pays me 20 USD, I'm a billionaire too. But that assumption would be as silly as yours.
kortilla 1y ago
Eventually coming back doesn’t mean it wasn’t a bubble that popped.
- 1y ago

scheme271 1y ago

3d printing has gone somewhat mainstream unlike the others. Manufacturers use it and it's somewhat common to see stuff that's been 3d printed being sold or created as small run prototypes.

FinnLobsien 1y ago
Yeah and that’s exactly what I mean. It’s found its place and is a useful technology. But it has not revolutionized entire industries like the internet, smartphone etc