3 ms·
People have a hard time thinking probabilistically. What is more likely, (1) the scientists/doctors in the world genuinely believe vaccines are safe AND we se
by softwaredoug 1y ago
People have a hard time thinking probabilistically.
What is more likely,
(1) the scientists/doctors in the world genuinely believe vaccines are safe AND we see in front of our own eyes routine, safe vaccination. The odd medical issue that happens at the same time is actually mostly coincidence - autism is often diagnosed at the same age that routine childhood vaccination happens.
Or
(2) these scientists are all in cahoots with Big Pharma and a disease happening rarely at the same age as vaccination is NOT coincidental. All the supposed vaccine safety boards that try to find safety issues are corrupt and we can’t trust them.
Add to (2) oh but we can trust this guy over here RFK Jr.
My prior would be (1) and I would need a lot of evidence to move to 2.
I think a lot of people fall for the Cynical Genius illusion where non trusting people look smarter
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/trust-games/202111/the-myth-the-cynical-genius/amp https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/trust-games/202111/t...
- peteforde 1y agoThanks for that link, it's genuinely interesting. The weird thing for me reading this is that I have never, ever defaulted to assuming that cynical people are smart(er). I grew up reading WIRED cover to cover, back when that meant something, and if anything I was slightly on the side of naive optimism so I tend to perceive cynics as having an unsettling vibe. Anyhow, I feel like your hot take is generally reasonable. I have very little patience for people who say "question everything" but in reality they only seem to question things that tend to have fringe conferences in airport hotels. Again: exhausting, and the older I get, the more inclined I am to just let them die of dysentery on the trail.