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> Does modern mesopotamia seem like a great place for the birthplace of agriculture? Actually yes, if not for the massive cultural and political dysfunction.

> Does modern mesopotamia seem like a great place for the birthplace of agriculture? Actually yes, if not for the massive cultural and political dysfunction. Modern Day Mesopotamia would be one of the most agriculturally productive regions in the world if managed. Like the California Central Valley and Central Arizona which share similar climate classifications and are the most productive regions (per Acre) on the planet.

lazide 1y ago
Notably, the California Central Valley is mostly as productive as it is because of fossil aquifers that are starting to reach nearly completely depleted states. The California Aquaduct would still allow some of it, but not nearly to the extent it has. Much of the remaining fossil water is having quality issues (excessive arsenic, salt, etc.). Arizona is not that far off [https://www.kjzz.org/2023-12-11/content-1865370-groundwater-report-shows-steep-decline-largely-because-agriculture https://www.kjzz.org/2023-12-11/content-1865370-groundwater-...]. There is a very real chance both locations will end up ‘reverting to the mean’ in the next 100 years due to lack of sustainable water supplies, which I uh expect to cause significant cultural and political dysfunction, as river driven water supplies are highly variable and don’t have the stabilizing effect that underground aquifers have. I’m less familiar with Arizona, but in California a big issue with the fossil aquifers is that when drawn down too much, they collapse, and will never be able to be rehydrated. At least not with currently known technology. ~ 28 feet of subsidence so far. [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Valley_land_subsidence https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Valley_land_subsiden...]. Modern Day Mesopotamia (at least Iraq) has similar issues - [https://www.nrc.no/news/2024/november/iraq-drought-slashes-seasonal-harvest-water-and-food-supply https://www.nrc.no/news/2024/november/iraq-drought-slashes-s...]. The most stable areas politically (Kurdistan, Baghdad) is also the only area with reliably reachable not-super-deep aquifers (Figure 27 ish), and also not problems with overly saline low quality sub-surface water (see figure 37ish) [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338393628_Groundwater_Hydrology_in_Iraq/download?_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7ImZpcnN0UGFnZSI6Il9kaXJlY3QiLCJwYWdlIjoiX2RpcmVjdCJ9fQ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338393628_Groundwat...]. The north and northeast is the only part of Iraq with subsurface water suitable for normal domestic use without being treated.

lazide 1y ago

Notably, the California Central Valley is mostly as productive as it is because of fossil aquifers that are starting to reach nearly completely depleted states. The California Aquaduct would still allow some of it, but not nearly to the extent it has. Much of the remaining fossil water is having quality issues (excessive arsenic, salt, etc.). Arizona is not that far off [https://www.kjzz.org/2023-12-11/content-1865370-groundwater-report-shows-steep-decline-largely-because-agriculture https://www.kjzz.org/2023-12-11/content-1865370-groundwater-...]. There is a very real chance both locations will end up ‘reverting to the mean’ in the next 100 years due to lack of sustainable water supplies, which I uh expect to cause significant cultural and political dysfunction, as river driven water supplies are highly variable and don’t have the stabilizing effect that underground aquifers have. I’m less familiar with Arizona, but in California a big issue with the fossil aquifers is that when drawn down too much, they collapse, and will never be able to be rehydrated. At least not with currently known technology. ~ 28 feet of subsidence so far. [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Valley_land_subsidence https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Valley_land_subsiden...]. Modern Day Mesopotamia (at least Iraq) has similar issues - [https://www.nrc.no/news/2024/november/iraq-drought-slashes-seasonal-harvest-water-and-food-supply https://www.nrc.no/news/2024/november/iraq-drought-slashes-s...]. The most stable areas politically (Kurdistan, Baghdad) is also the only area with reliably reachable not-super-deep aquifers (Figure 27 ish), and also not problems with overly saline low quality sub-surface water (see figure 37ish) [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338393628_Groundwater_Hydrology_in_Iraq/download?_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7ImZpcnN0UGFnZSI6Il9kaXJlY3QiLCJwYWdlIjoiX2RpcmVjdCJ9fQ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338393628_Groundwat...]. The north and northeast is the only part of Iraq with subsurface water suitable for normal domestic use without being treated.