4 ms·

Every time I see an article like this a quote comes to mind: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." -- John Maynard Keynes Predict

Every time I see an article like this a quote comes to mind: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." -- John Maynard Keynes Predicting when a bubble is going to burst is close to impossible.

shermantanktop 1y ago
But it feels like it’s about to pop! It really is hard to stay objective as predictors all seem to point one way.
- dcastm 1y ago
  What predictors do you mean? I’m genuinely curious
  - reaperducer 1y ago
    What predictors do you mean? I’m genuinely curious I don't think you're genuinely curious because the title of the article is literally "The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst."
- kleene_op 1y ago
  If people are so convinced the market is gonna crash very soon they can just short it and make millions easily. Funny how no one's doing that amidst all the concerns and outcries expressed online.
righthand 1y ago
I mean a bursting bubble is what? A C-Suite pulling the valve shut or a company going under? It seems like the bubble has burst already then when Zuckerberg and Altman started decrying it earlier in the week. Now we just wait for all the smaller companies to either fold. For the larger companies the bubble will probably deflate slowly rather than burst. There are no market indicators if the actual burst is at the whim of a human. Being that Meta can probably bleed for a while before seeing real losses after a burst. All they have to do is be the first one to stop growing while the bubble deflates.
- jandrese 1y ago
  A traditional bubble burst is when there is a major sector-wide selloff of an overinflated asset. When there is a race to not be one of the suckers left holding the bag.
deng 1y ago
Fortunately, there are open-end put options, so the timing doesn't have to be THAT accurate. EDIT: to be precise: I mean open-end turbo put, which have no expiration but a knock-out.
- dharmatech 1y ago
  Put options have an expiration. So I'm curious what you mean by "open-end"?
  - turnsout 1y ago
    Yeah, not a thing. You can short a stock long-term, but that's an easy way to become insolvent.
    - Kranar 1y ago
      Perpetual options are a thing, although not mainstream.
  - Kranar 1y ago
    Options exist with no expiration date, but they are not commonly traded. There's nothing in principle unusual about them, at least not more so than most other derivatives.

shermantanktop 1y ago

But it feels like it’s about to pop! It really is hard to stay objective as predictors all seem to point one way.

dcastm 1y ago
What predictors do you mean? I’m genuinely curious
- reaperducer 1y ago
  What predictors do you mean? I’m genuinely curious I don't think you're genuinely curious because the title of the article is literally "The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst."
kleene_op 1y ago
If people are so convinced the market is gonna crash very soon they can just short it and make millions easily. Funny how no one's doing that amidst all the concerns and outcries expressed online.

righthand 1y ago

I mean a bursting bubble is what? A C-Suite pulling the valve shut or a company going under? It seems like the bubble has burst already then when Zuckerberg and Altman started decrying it earlier in the week. Now we just wait for all the smaller companies to either fold. For the larger companies the bubble will probably deflate slowly rather than burst. There are no market indicators if the actual burst is at the whim of a human. Being that Meta can probably bleed for a while before seeing real losses after a burst. All they have to do is be the first one to stop growing while the bubble deflates.

jandrese 1y ago
A traditional bubble burst is when there is a major sector-wide selloff of an overinflated asset. When there is a race to not be one of the suckers left holding the bag.

deng 1y ago

Fortunately, there are open-end put options, so the timing doesn't have to be THAT accurate. EDIT: to be precise: I mean open-end turbo put, which have no expiration but a knock-out.

dharmatech 1y ago
Put options have an expiration. So I'm curious what you mean by "open-end"?
- turnsout 1y ago
  Yeah, not a thing. You can short a stock long-term, but that's an easy way to become insolvent.
  - Kranar 1y ago
    Perpetual options are a thing, although not mainstream.
- Kranar 1y ago
  Options exist with no expiration date, but they are not commonly traded. There's nothing in principle unusual about them, at least not more so than most other derivatives.