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The problem is Tina! There Is No Alternative - Gold? Dead asset - Cash? Good luck with inflation - Bitcoin? My ass… So what else can you do as a rational i

by baxtr 1y ago

The problem is Tina! There Is No Alternative - Gold? Dead asset - Cash? Good luck with inflation - Bitcoin? My ass… So what else can you do as a rational investor than to invest most of your cash into an S&P500 or World fund?

mhh__ 1y ago
Golds been rallying really aggressively recently
- JKCalhoun 1y ago
  So, too late now, you're saying. I read overvalued, soon to crash… Perhaps we should be buying up Yuan…
  - Fade_Dance 1y ago
    Chinese equities have actually been great performers recently (off of a base of ultra-pessimism), but that's mostly the onshore market, not the ADR paper you can buy in the west. Buying the yuan on the other hand is directly taking a stance against CCP state controlled currency policy. A less advisable and knowable bet.
    - JKCalhoun 1y ago
      Then invest in Chinese airlines, banks...
- baxtr 1y ago
  Yes I know, same with Bitcoin. I mean it’s a dead asset class since it doesn’t fund any economic activity. It’s just a store of wealth
JKCalhoun 1y ago
Yeah, frankly I think there is no truly safe place for investments at this point. We might as well just enjoy the ride knowing at least when it hits the bottom, we'll all of us be in the same tough spot.
- dev-ns8 1y ago
  Well isn't that the whole point? At a fundamental level, investment profits are a payment for the risk you take. No risk equals no profit. There are "safe" investments currently. You can get paid 4% a year roughly to hold treasuries right now. Considered a "risk free" investment (Which sure, maybe the merits can be argued). But at the end of the day the only way to profit from an investment is taking some risk. It all comes down to pricing that risk.
FollowingTheDao 1y ago
> Gold? Dead asset What? Gold is at a record high, and with inflation it will only go higher. https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-...
- baxtr 1y ago
  Dead in the sense that it is not useful for society.
  - FollowingTheDao 1y ago
    How is it not useful for society if it’s worth $3300 an ounce? It’s a metal prized physical properties and it’s also used in industry.
    - baxtr 1y ago
      My favorite LLM tells me that roughly 85% of the world’s gold is simply “lying around” in the sense of being held as jewelry, bars, coins, or reserves. In contrast, only about 15% of the gold is actively utilized in production or technological applications. So I'd say it's the same as having cash under your pillow.
      - FollowingTheDao 1y ago
        If it’s the same thing as cash under your pillow, and it’s useless, then give me all the cash under your pillow.
        baxtr 1y ago
        Yes, exactly. That’s the idea! I give my cash to you, and, as exchange, I will own a (usually small) share of your company. Then you’ll hopefully be successful and my shares will raise. Good for you. Good for me. Good for society since you created jobs.
- 1y ago
mschuster91 1y ago
Military manufacturers are a reasonably safe haven these days as Europe is desperately trying to re-arm itself following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Middle East is in flames once again and there's a ton of uncertainty and small scale hostilities around China/India/Pakistan. Urban residential real estate is also a safe haven assuming you still are allowed to invest there. Demand is not going to shrink any time soon (as most Western governments are running rural areas to the ground for them being too expensive to bring on modern standards and expectations in infrastructure), and supply is so scarce that even large developments and re-zoning will hardly make a dent in demand.
bad_haircut72 1y ago
Give it to entrepeneurs/researchers doing intrinsicly cool things like cancer research, without knowing how you will get any of it back right at the start. The problem is NOT lack of productive investments, its that Uber rich people think its not fair if they ever lose.
tim333 1y ago
Maybe unfashionable equities? Utility stocks, Japan/S Korea, BRKB etc?
FuriouslyAdrift 1y ago
Instead of cash, I hold treasuries. The rest is spread out among low holding cost index funds (watch out for fees... they will kill your profits) and use dividend re-investment. Split things between tax advantaged and non tax advantaged depending on your short and long term goals (ask a certified financial advisor with fiduciary duty for strategies that work for you. It's worth the small fee) Every time the market takes a crap, I buy. I rarely sell. Keep enough cash or near cash assets in a no penalty account(s) to cover unexpected costs so aren't forced to sell. A luxurious set up for sure (which took about a decade to get set up) but it's repeatable and fairly stable. Now, if you have real wealth (like $10s of millions of liquid assets) then look to setting up a MFO or SFO and focus on tax efficiency, etc. That's a whole different set of strategies.
- baxtr 1y ago
  Interesting. So US Treasury securities instead of cash right? And then every time there is a dip, sell the treasuries and buy ETFs?
  - FuriouslyAdrift 1y ago
    Sure. Dollar cost averaging across a broad spectrum works well for a (very) conservative investor. I try never to have more than 10% of my liquid assets in speculative deals (straight up gambling stuff... individual stock picks, day trading, options, etc). The rest I try to keep as long term investing and/or cash or near cash.
twic 1y ago
Invest in a fund which underweights bubble stocks by tracking a suitable alternative index: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Alternative_indices https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Alternative_indices Dividend weighted indexes are the classic option, and fundamental weighted index are a newer one.

by baxtr 1y ago

mhh__ 1y ago

Golds been rallying really aggressively recently

JKCalhoun 1y ago
So, too late now, you're saying. I read overvalued, soon to crash… Perhaps we should be buying up Yuan…
- Fade_Dance 1y ago
  Chinese equities have actually been great performers recently (off of a base of ultra-pessimism), but that's mostly the onshore market, not the ADR paper you can buy in the west. Buying the yuan on the other hand is directly taking a stance against CCP state controlled currency policy. A less advisable and knowable bet.
  - JKCalhoun 1y ago
    Then invest in Chinese airlines, banks...
baxtr 1y ago
Yes I know, same with Bitcoin. I mean it’s a dead asset class since it doesn’t fund any economic activity. It’s just a store of wealth

JKCalhoun 1y ago

Yeah, frankly I think there is no truly safe place for investments at this point. We might as well just enjoy the ride knowing at least when it hits the bottom, we'll all of us be in the same tough spot.

dev-ns8 1y ago
Well isn't that the whole point? At a fundamental level, investment profits are a payment for the risk you take. No risk equals no profit. There are "safe" investments currently. You can get paid 4% a year roughly to hold treasuries right now. Considered a "risk free" investment (Which sure, maybe the merits can be argued). But at the end of the day the only way to profit from an investment is taking some risk. It all comes down to pricing that risk.

FollowingTheDao 1y ago

> Gold? Dead asset What? Gold is at a record high, and with inflation it will only go higher. https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-...

baxtr 1y ago
Dead in the sense that it is not useful for society.
- FollowingTheDao 1y ago
  How is it not useful for society if it’s worth $3300 an ounce? It’s a metal prized physical properties and it’s also used in industry.
  - baxtr 1y ago
    My favorite LLM tells me that roughly 85% of the world’s gold is simply “lying around” in the sense of being held as jewelry, bars, coins, or reserves. In contrast, only about 15% of the gold is actively utilized in production or technological applications. So I'd say it's the same as having cash under your pillow.
    - FollowingTheDao 1y ago
      If it’s the same thing as cash under your pillow, and it’s useless, then give me all the cash under your pillow.
      - baxtr 1y ago
        Yes, exactly. That’s the idea! I give my cash to you, and, as exchange, I will own a (usually small) share of your company. Then you’ll hopefully be successful and my shares will raise. Good for you. Good for me. Good for society since you created jobs.
1y ago

mschuster91 1y ago

Military manufacturers are a reasonably safe haven these days as Europe is desperately trying to re-arm itself following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Middle East is in flames once again and there's a ton of uncertainty and small scale hostilities around China/India/Pakistan. Urban residential real estate is also a safe haven assuming you still are allowed to invest there. Demand is not going to shrink any time soon (as most Western governments are running rural areas to the ground for them being too expensive to bring on modern standards and expectations in infrastructure), and supply is so scarce that even large developments and re-zoning will hardly make a dent in demand.

bad_haircut72 1y ago

Give it to entrepeneurs/researchers doing intrinsicly cool things like cancer research, without knowing how you will get any of it back right at the start. The problem is NOT lack of productive investments, its that Uber rich people think its not fair if they ever lose.

tim333 1y ago

Maybe unfashionable equities? Utility stocks, Japan/S Korea, BRKB etc?

FuriouslyAdrift 1y ago

Instead of cash, I hold treasuries. The rest is spread out among low holding cost index funds (watch out for fees... they will kill your profits) and use dividend re-investment. Split things between tax advantaged and non tax advantaged depending on your short and long term goals (ask a certified financial advisor with fiduciary duty for strategies that work for you. It's worth the small fee) Every time the market takes a crap, I buy. I rarely sell. Keep enough cash or near cash assets in a no penalty account(s) to cover unexpected costs so aren't forced to sell. A luxurious set up for sure (which took about a decade to get set up) but it's repeatable and fairly stable. Now, if you have real wealth (like $10s of millions of liquid assets) then look to setting up a MFO or SFO and focus on tax efficiency, etc. That's a whole different set of strategies.

baxtr 1y ago
Interesting. So US Treasury securities instead of cash right? And then every time there is a dip, sell the treasuries and buy ETFs?
- FuriouslyAdrift 1y ago
  Sure. Dollar cost averaging across a broad spectrum works well for a (very) conservative investor. I try never to have more than 10% of my liquid assets in speculative deals (straight up gambling stuff... individual stock picks, day trading, options, etc). The rest I try to keep as long term investing and/or cash or near cash.

twic 1y ago

Invest in a fund which underweights bubble stocks by tracking a suitable alternative index: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Alternative_indices https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Alternative_indices Dividend weighted indexes are the classic option, and fundamental weighted index are a newer one.