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This is flatly false. The Truss/Kwarteng event was plainly and simply that radically uncosted policies put forward by two fucking idiots terrified the market.

This is flatly false. The Truss/Kwarteng event was plainly and simply that radically uncosted policies put forward by two fucking idiots terrified the market. But keep talking like this and maybe they will join Reform so you can try them out again.

qcnguy 1y ago
And yet Labour have blown through all the spending and borrowing levels they proposed without "terrifying the market"? No, go read up on it. There was a chain reaction in the pensions market caused by over-leverage. Similar issue to 2008. Truss wasn't aware of it. Now that doesn't excuse over-spending. Of course she should have been cutting costs rather than just lowering taxes. But apparently there aren't any British political parties willing to lower costs. Eventually the IMF will have to force the issue.
- foldr 1y ago
  Truss wasn’t ‘aware’ because she ignored the warnings that she received. Why hasn’t the same thing happened under Labour? For various reasons, (not least that their economic policy isn’t stark raving bonkers), but largely because they’ve taken very explicit care to reassure the markets and make sure that no-one is surprised or alarmed: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/18/infrastructure-taskforce-to-help-chancellor-avoid-financial-sector-turmoil https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/18/infrastructu...
  - qcnguy 1y ago
    She wasn't given any warnings about the LDI crisis, by universal consensus. She has also written about how the the first thing anyone told her about the risk buildup in the pension sector was the moment it happened. Same thing hasn't happened under Labour because steps were quickly taken to end the crisis in the pensions sector. But the underlying problem remains that high spending isn't viable forever. FWIW, Labour's economic policy is much worse than Truss' ever was. UK is heading for a massive crisis that makes the mini-budget LDI blowup look like a storm in a teacup. Labour have not only not reassured the market, they are actively antagonizing it as can be seen in the yields that are now persistently higher than during Truss. Labour backbenchers won't let the UK cut spending and bondholders are starting to think they won't get their money back. They are right to worry.
    - foldr 1y ago
      Lots of people told Liz Truss that the budget would lead to a crisis in confidence in the markets. Even more people would have told her if she hasn’t decided to go ahead without an OBR assessment. Whether or not someone was able to foresee the exact specifics is irrelevant. Everyone who knew anything knew that the budget would have catastrophic consequences. You don’t have to like Labour’s economic policy, but it’s rather a weak argument to insist that it will eventually lead to an even bigger crisis that the Truss-induced crisis that has actually happened. So far it hasn’t. Isn’t economic policy essentially the art of delaying crises, in any case?

qcnguy 1y ago

And yet Labour have blown through all the spending and borrowing levels they proposed without "terrifying the market"? No, go read up on it. There was a chain reaction in the pensions market caused by over-leverage. Similar issue to 2008. Truss wasn't aware of it. Now that doesn't excuse over-spending. Of course she should have been cutting costs rather than just lowering taxes. But apparently there aren't any British political parties willing to lower costs. Eventually the IMF will have to force the issue.

foldr 1y ago
Truss wasn’t ‘aware’ because she ignored the warnings that she received. Why hasn’t the same thing happened under Labour? For various reasons, (not least that their economic policy isn’t stark raving bonkers), but largely because they’ve taken very explicit care to reassure the markets and make sure that no-one is surprised or alarmed: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/18/infrastructure-taskforce-to-help-chancellor-avoid-financial-sector-turmoil https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/18/infrastructu...
- qcnguy 1y ago
  She wasn't given any warnings about the LDI crisis, by universal consensus. She has also written about how the the first thing anyone told her about the risk buildup in the pension sector was the moment it happened. Same thing hasn't happened under Labour because steps were quickly taken to end the crisis in the pensions sector. But the underlying problem remains that high spending isn't viable forever. FWIW, Labour's economic policy is much worse than Truss' ever was. UK is heading for a massive crisis that makes the mini-budget LDI blowup look like a storm in a teacup. Labour have not only not reassured the market, they are actively antagonizing it as can be seen in the yields that are now persistently higher than during Truss. Labour backbenchers won't let the UK cut spending and bondholders are starting to think they won't get their money back. They are right to worry.
  - foldr 1y ago
    Lots of people told Liz Truss that the budget would lead to a crisis in confidence in the markets. Even more people would have told her if she hasn’t decided to go ahead without an OBR assessment. Whether or not someone was able to foresee the exact specifics is irrelevant. Everyone who knew anything knew that the budget would have catastrophic consequences. You don’t have to like Labour’s economic policy, but it’s rather a weak argument to insist that it will eventually lead to an even bigger crisis that the Truss-induced crisis that has actually happened. So far it hasn’t. Isn’t economic policy essentially the art of delaying crises, in any case?