3 ms·
80% of all USD in circulation was printed between 2020 and 2022, poor bond performance ==> "there is no alternative", unhealthy amounts of gambling, central ban
by porridgeraisin 1y ago
80% of all USD in circulation was printed between 2020 and 2022, poor bond performance ==> "there is no alternative", unhealthy amounts of gambling, central banks executing unhealthy amounts of QE.
All of this causes money to run to the stock market, equity valuations to go crazy high, and also concentrate at the top. This is seen to be true today as the equal-weighted s&p lost to the cap-weighted s&p by the largest margin on record in 23-24, more than 10%. During relatively healthier times, it usually outperforms by 1%ish. Check the expanding gulf between returns of the S&P top 10 and S&P next 490.
Execs get paid in equity more than employees, and so their TC accelerates faster.
Gambling (whitewashed terms: speculation/trading) is always the original sin :) Has been since the bronze age. Most of what most participants in the stock market do today is just meaningless zero-value drivel. Due to the tragedy-of-the-commons effect, it is almost impossible to do disciplined, "charlie munger"-style investing in the market today.
Historically, these conditions have always mean-reverted. But it has never been pretty :)
- throwawayqqq11 1y agoId call interest / base rate the original sin, since its at the very top.
- porridgeraisin 1y agoOther way around. Central bank stimulus is a response to divert the utter crisis the economy would go into if they don't do something. This situation in the first place is caused by gambling.
- throwawayqqq11 1y agoThese crises are caused by ever increasing profit expenctations, be it from mortage payments or bubbled up venture capital, because there are interest rates ticking on all of it. Gambling or what ever trading is just a superficial piece of the puzzle. Even if there were no irrational, egoistic gamblers, the system would still have a positive feedback loop.