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U.K. 30-Year Yield Tops U.S. as Pressure Mounts on Government Borrowing
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- monero-xmr 1y agohttps://archive.is/tpdTR https://archive.is/tpdTR The bull case for the UK is that they have an educated, English-speaking workforce and a stable legal system for protecting property rights. As they become poorer and poorer, you will be able to hire their talent cheaply as their standard of living further erodes. Otherwise, I really don't see a lot of growth possibilities on the horizon. It is crab-mentality of taxing their richest citizens and companies ever more, but the juice is running out of that orange. So fundamental reform will eventually occur, over the shrieks and howls of the left. Reform UK is highly likely to win the next election. This isn't to say they will actually solve anything, but the pivot to the extreme right after a huge win for the left is a symptom of larger societal problems and widespread hand-wringing.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- Urahandystar 1y agoFunny thing is UK companies are offshoring like crazy right now. So hirely talent cheaply is out making things look terminal.
- foldr 1y agoThe UK has a lot of problems, but taxing the rich too much isn’t one of them. This is a shallow analysis. If I had to pick one obvious economic problem with the UK it would be the vast economic disparity between London and most of the rest of the country and the unwillingness of successive governments to invest any significant amount of money in tackling it. There is no cheap solution. Cutting taxes on the rich won’t magically grow the economy. That requires actual investment. However, as Liz Truss showed while trying to do something different, it’s very hard for the government to invest when any increase in borrowing leads to panic and a crash in the markets.
- qcnguy 1y agoThe Truss event was due to crap regulation and bad moves by the BoE. The UK bond yield is now higher than it was during the Truss spike which according to Labour "crashed the economy". Actual cause of the problem was a 2008-style blowup in pension related securities.
- jurking_hoff 1y ago[dead]
- qcnguy 1y agoI don't have a recommend read but a quick search showed this: https://www.pensions-expert.com/investment/ldi-and-the-liz-truss-mini-budget-one-year-on-what-if-anything-has-changed/65188.article https://www.pensions-expert.com/investment/ldi-and-the-liz-t...
- foldr 1y agoFundamentally it was due to Liz Truss ignoring all the experts who told her exactly what was going to happen. However, I think the episode illustrates how economic policy can be overly constrained by the short term reactions of markets. Though I think Liz Truss's economic policy was stupid, she was PM and should have been able to execute it. It's good that the policy was reversed, but this happened for the wrong (undemocratic) reasons.
- exasperaited 1y agoThis is flatly false. The Truss/Kwarteng event was plainly and simply that radically uncosted policies put forward by two fucking idiots terrified the market. But keep talking like this and maybe they will join Reform so you can try them out again.
- qcnguy 1y agoAnd yet Labour have blown through all the spending and borrowing levels they proposed without "terrifying the market"? No, go read up on it. There was a chain reaction in the pensions market caused by over-leverage. Similar issue to 2008. Truss wasn't aware of it. Now that doesn't excuse over-spending. Of course she should have been cutting costs rather than just lowering taxes. But apparently there aren't any British political parties willing to lower costs. Eventually the IMF will have to force the issue.
- OgsyedIE 1y agoThe bull case, given the US betrayal* of the notion of an order that includes Europe, is that the UK establishment will figure out their way to leverage their middle position between Europe and the US to act as a middleman for the U.S. looting the vast quantity of unsecured wealth in Europe and find a way to do this profitably enough to account for their uncompetitive resource import costs without giving cause for the U.S. to cut out the middleman. Like Hong Kong was for China in the 20th century, but with more extraction. Taxes are a red herring. The workforce and legible but only occasionally officially perverted legal system are valuable, sure, but it's the 2020s. Plenty of places can offer that. As for the pivot to the right, it's a net gain for all UK citizens who don't outwardly present as a minority or can hide it, since they can suck up to one of the few big petroleum and food exporters at a discount. . * footnote: It should go without saying, but Trumpism is just an expression of pre-existing vast sociocultural forces.
- exasperaited 1y ago> Reform UK is highly likely to win the next election. No it is not highly likely at all. People who say this simply do not understand the depth of the structural challenge involved in getting from four MPs to 326 (or 325 or so if you delete the odd non-active MP). Even if they get close but no cigar and secure a coalition it would be with the Conservatives, whose failures will not be forgotten soon. I think it is wholly possible, alas, that Reform will see a hundred or so MPs and be the official opposition. But it should not be overstated that the Liberal Democrats will sooner offer to be in a coalition with Labour, and the country tolerate that again from them, than allow Reform the chance to undo Labour's work. And that is before you consider that, ahem, the shine is off Reform's chums in the USA already and that situation is not going to get better soon. Reform would need a massive amount of money -- Musk money and sketchy crypto money, basically -- to get anywhere, and Trump's orange thumb on the scale with US social media firms. And we don't like that stuff. I cannot stress enough how badly that kind of intervention would go for them. There are not many people in the UK who would say that Starmer's win was a "huge win for the left". Especially Labour voters. The "left" doesn't have much to do with it. Centrism, sanity, and the hope for an end to grift and stupidity and cruelty do. The failings of the right -- of idiots like Liz Truss and Brexit -- have more. Reform fielded a candidate in essentially every constituency in 2024 and got five elected. One of them is sitting as an independent already because he's under investigation for corruption. Yes, Reform got a huge swing in the local (council) elections, and some people think that is predictive. But historically it's nowhere near as predictive as Reform voters would like.
- qcnguy 1y agoYou might be behind the times. Current polls show Reform gaining a huge majority and the Conservatives dropping to a few dozen seats if an election were held tomorrow. Labour would also be slaughtered.
- exasperaited 1y agoThis is predicated on something the polls do not and cannot convey: the selection of electable candidates. This is imaginary. Reform fielded candidates in essentially every constituency in 2024 and only five of them were elected. One is already sitting as an independent because he’s being investigated for pretty serious fraud and the party will not stand by him. Again: the polls do not and cannot reflect just how difficult it would be to get from four MPs to 326.
- HPsquared 1y agoThe Left didn't really "win big" in 2024; Starmer's Labour got fewer votes than Corbyn's 2017 bid. Labour swept parliament purely due to the Right splitting between Tory and Reform, and the spoiler effect of FPTP.
- qcnguy 1y agoThe right didn't split. Reform hardly existed at that point because the Tories called a snap election with nearly no notice specifically to stop Farage organizing in time. What happened is simply that conservative voters stayed home. Massive vote abstention.
- HPsquared 1y agoThought I'd check, seems the right wing lost about 25% of their votes (though from a high starting point) and the left wing stayed about the same (gained 5% if you count the Greens). Votes for each party, change 2019-2024 (based on aggregate vote counts from Wikipedia): - Labour lost 0.5M votes (2024: 9.7M) - Conservatives lost 7.1M votes (2024: 6.8M) - Reform (new party) gained 4.1M votes (2024: 4.1M) - LibDems lost 0.2M votes (2024: 3.5M) - Greens gained 1.0M votes (2024: 1.8M) - SNP lost 500k votes (2024: 0.7M) I suppose anyone counting Reform on the right should also count Green on the left, so the "left group" (Labour+Green) got more votes than the "right group" (Tory+Reform). The split vote is what caused the massive change in parliament though, a proportional result would be about even left/right with LibDem as kingmakers. Tis a silly place.
- oblique 1y agoLabour is no longer a leftist party, it is better described a corporatist party. When capitalism is in decay like it is now, a corporatist (liberal, right, whatever) party won't push back against exploitative companies. The people notice the ineffectiveness of the incumbents and vote for whatever the 2nd most popular party is. We'll see if "Your Party" can break the cycle
- n4r9 1y agoAgreed. I lean left on the UK spectrum and it was the first time I voted other than Labour in a GE. The walk-back on stuff like tuition fees and childcare was untenable, as was ordering MPs to stay away from picket lines. The nightmare continued with winter fuel payments, welfare "reforms" and a lack of leadership over small boats (which are not a pressing matter despite the frenzy being whipped up by Reform).
- jstanley 1y ago> The U.K.’s fragile fiscal situation is back in focus as yields on long-term government bonds surged, topping their U.S. counterparts for the first time this century. But the chart appears to show the black line above the red line quite a few times since 2000? Am I reading it wrong?
- jihadjihad 1y ago> Am I reading it wrong? No. You're exposing poor reportage and sloppy editing. CoinDesk isn't exactly Bloomberg.
- bgwalter 1y agoThis indebtedness of the advanced world supports the bullish case for perceived store-of-value assets like bitcoin. Yes, please invest in the SPAC set up by the sons of Howard Lutnick at Cantor Fitzgerald that buys 30,000 bitcoin from Adam Back: https://www.ft.com/content/a4a362a6-cc8b-4188-8658-75183a3d6f5f#comments-anchor https://www.ft.com/content/a4a362a6-cc8b-4188-8658-75183a3d6... Or buy world liberty tokens from Trump: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/uae-fund-buys-100-million-trumps-world-liberty-tokens-2025-06-27/ https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/uae-fund-buys-100-m...
- OgsyedIE 1y agoThe fact that dozens of parasites can profit from advertising fraudulent store-of-value instruments is an indicator that there is a decent size of real store-of-value instruments and that they are unable to meet demand.
- Nursie 1y ago(Edit - apparently what I can tell is not quite accurate, but it’s possible the UK is paying 8-15% of the government budget in interest each year, which is still quite a chunk) From what I can tell from listening to a lot of UK news still, the country finds itself economically stagnating while suffering from a level of debt that makes debt repayment the second largest chunk of government expenditure after the NHS. There’s so little room for manoeuvre that successive governments are left tweaking the edges of the budget but unable to carry out any major plans or reforms. And on the subject of Reform… they think they’re going to axe fat from the administrative budget at every level by emulating Elon Musk, when it’s not clear there is a lot of fat. There’s only so many diversity officers to fire. Hard to see what the future is there at the moment.
- foldr 1y ago> that makes debt repayment the second largest chunk of government expenditure after the NHS. Are you sure about this? If you scroll down to the pie chart on the following page, health is not the largest chunk of expenditure (that’s social security) and interest on debt is fifth. https://ifs.org.uk/taxlab/taxlab-key-questions/what-does-government-spend-money https://ifs.org.uk/taxlab/taxlab-key-questions/what-does-gov...
- Nursie 1y agoI might very well be wrong! The orb thinks 8.4% this year, totalling 111 billion. But I can also find articles that seem to say the government spent 16.4 billion just in June - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g2rky498wo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g2rky498wo Either way, listening the Today program a few times a week from overseas has possibly warped my view! Perhaps the constraint is more to do with currency fluctuations and gilt yield rises when it looks like they’re wanting to borrow more. (Edit - the OBR! Not “The Orb”, though frankly if the orb would like to hold forth on the economy I’d probably listen to them over most commentators…)
- foldr 1y agoFrom the article: > The amount of interest the government pays on national debt also varies from month to month So your figure for June is not obviously inconsistent with a total of 111 billion per year.
- adrr 1y agoUK shot themselves in the foot by leaving the EU. They could always rejoin.
- toomuchtodo 1y agoDo you think enough voters who voted for Brexit have died off between then and now to have a successful “Rejoin” referendum? (for context, review the leave vs stay votes by age cohort: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/15796-how-britain-voted https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/15796-how-britain-vot... ; roughly ~500k voters 65+ die every year in the UK: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde...)
- qcnguy 1y agoSuch an HN-tier comment. The UK's excessive borrowing has nothing to do with the EU, which also has its own borrowing problems. It's because it has a Labour government whose backbenchers refuse to countenance any cuts or optimizations to welfare whatsoever, even though the current welfare levels are unaffordable and crippling the economy. Leaving the EU has actually helped that, because the membership payments can now be spent on general costs, and it didn't worsen trade or the economy in any noticeable way.
- adrr 1y agoHuge deficits exited prior labor party takeover due to economy getting smacked by brexit. Labor party has decreased the deficit. https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5922/economics/uk-budget-deficit-2/ https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5922/economics/uk-budget-...
- qcnguy 1y agoWhere do you people get this stuff? The economy saw no impact from Brexit whatsoever. Remarkable but true. Go look for yourself. The huge deficits are structural and driven by unrestrained immigration and welfare spending combined with the ruinous costs of lockdown, which put the debt load onto an unsustainable trajectory. Instead of being stable after lockdowns ended interests costs started continuously rising as a percentage of the budget. Labour certainly has not decreased the deficit unless you're counting a "reduction" from lockdown costs.
- Eddy_Viscosity2 1y agoClearly the solution is to give the ultra-rich a large tax break. That always seems to be the solution. If and when tax for the ultra-rich gets to zero, new proposals will then be for full-on government subsidies to the ultra-rich.