4 ms·

Do you have any evidence of this contraction? I'd be curious to hear which statistics you think are better indicators.

carsongross 14y ago
Sure. You are looking at one, in gasoline sales. U6 over 15% looks pretty miserable: http://helpthe99ers.blogspot.com/2012/02/graph-of-day-u3-u4-and-u6.html and the less-easily-manipulated population employment ratio is bouncing along the bottom (maybe contracting): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 General sales taxes in CA are down (although the latest data is not up yet): http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/united-states/state-taxes/california/general-sales-and-gross-receipts/tax-revenue-per-capita/2011/q3#graph Generally, the harder the statistic, the worse the situation looks. Which, given that we are in an election year and should expect the govt. to be juicing the economy as much as it can, should be worrying.
- zevyoura 14y ago
  None of those three look good, but, as far as I can tell, none indicate a contraction... at worst they indicate that things are remaining bad, but not getting worse. The first appears to be improving, slowly. The second appears to be hovering aroung the same level since 2010. The third link is broken for me, but when I find the data I think you're referencing on that site it appears that there is a dip in the latest quarter, but if you look at the history that data clearly does not track the overall performance of the economy very closely. I can't say I find your claim very credible so far, but if you have additional evidence I'd be very interested.
  - carsongross 14y ago
    They all indicate a very weak to declining economy and, of course, they are all trailing indicators. With the ISM miss this month and the latest jobs debacle, I expect us to be officially in recession by the end of the year (with all the experts shocked, of course.) OTOH, it's an election year, and Bernanke will print, so who can say?
    - rishonik 14y ago
      > Bernanke will print Anyone holding paper is going to suffer some bad hurt in the coming year.
snomad 14y ago
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/manufacturing-ism-misses-third-month-contraction-territory-biggest-miss-construction-spending-o http://www.zerohedge.com/news/manufacturing-ism-misses-third...

Sure. You are looking at one, in gasoline sales. U6 over 15% looks pretty miserable: http://helpthe99ers.blogspot.com/2012/02/graph-of-day-u3-u4-and-u6.html and the less-easily-manipulated population employment ratio is bouncing along the bottom (maybe contracting): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 General sales taxes in CA are down (although the latest data is not up yet): http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/united-states/state-taxes/california/general-sales-and-gross-receipts/tax-revenue-per-capita/2011/q3#graph Generally, the harder the statistic, the worse the situation looks. Which, given that we are in an election year and should expect the govt. to be juicing the economy as much as it can, should be worrying.

zevyoura 14y ago
None of those three look good, but, as far as I can tell, none indicate a contraction... at worst they indicate that things are remaining bad, but not getting worse. The first appears to be improving, slowly. The second appears to be hovering aroung the same level since 2010. The third link is broken for me, but when I find the data I think you're referencing on that site it appears that there is a dip in the latest quarter, but if you look at the history that data clearly does not track the overall performance of the economy very closely. I can't say I find your claim very credible so far, but if you have additional evidence I'd be very interested.
- carsongross 14y ago
  They all indicate a very weak to declining economy and, of course, they are all trailing indicators. With the ISM miss this month and the latest jobs debacle, I expect us to be officially in recession by the end of the year (with all the experts shocked, of course.) OTOH, it's an election year, and Bernanke will print, so who can say?
  - rishonik 14y ago
    > Bernanke will print Anyone holding paper is going to suffer some bad hurt in the coming year.

snomad 14y ago

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/manufacturing-ism-misses-third-month-contraction-territory-biggest-miss-construction-spending-o http://www.zerohedge.com/news/manufacturing-ism-misses-third...