5 ms·

It's 1999 again.

by woeirua 1y ago

It's 1999 again.

j45 1y ago
Truly, except now everyone's online and spending time online and spending cash online.
- pixl97 1y ago
  And, the .com bomb killed some companies and slowed down spending for a bit. It did not kill the internet, and now companies like Amazon(.com) are absolutely enormous. Some people think the GenAI bomb is going to kill GenAI, I think it's just going to weed out those with too high of expenses and no way to evolve the compute to be cheaper over time.
  - sech8420 1y ago
    "Some people think the GenAI bomb is going to kill GenAI," Sure, a very very small percentage of people who know hardly anything about GenAI might think this.
    - __loam 1y ago
      It's the opposite. The more I learn about the financial state of these companies the worse my opinion gets.
  - j45 1y ago
    There was barely no one using the internet then let alone doing e-commerce. It’s worth reading up on it to see what’s actually comparable.
  - oinfoalgo 1y ago
    The forward P/E of the Nasdaq 100 is pretty exemplary of how this is not the same situation at all. https://en.macromicro.me/series/23955/nasdaq-100-pe https://en.macromicro.me/series/23955/nasdaq-100-pe It is easy to spot the dot com bubble on this chart.
    - j45 1y ago
      It’s a fair point. At the same time there’s actual software and not vapourware of the dot com boom.
jonas21 1y ago
So you're saying they're basically right, but 5 or 10 years too optimistic on the timeline?
- robbomacrae 1y ago
  seems about right to me!
snerbles 1y ago
It'll be interesting to see what sort of Chewy-equivalents emerge after the pets.com-analogues collapse.
mensetmanusman 1y ago
1999 was triggered by fraud, there was far more demand on paper for high bandwidth applications than was justified for all the fiber layout and over-investment in Internet technologies. The difference today is that every piece of capitalism immediately 100% utilized once it is plugged in.
- ModernMech 1y ago
  Announcing to the world "AGI has been achieved internally" when that's not true seems like fraud to me.
  - fzzzy 1y ago
    Who did that?
    - postflopclarity 1y ago
      Altman made this claim.
    - bigtunacan 1y ago
      Sam Altman made a post on Reddit in 2023 implying OpenAI had achieved AGI internally. Later he “clarified” it was a joke, however there was some speculation that he didn’t understand what AGI actually meant at the time.
- woeirua 1y ago
  Tell me you don't understand why the dot com crash happened without telling me you don't understand why the dot com crash happened.
  - ac29 1y ago
    Calling the whole bubble fraud is wrong, but Enron, Worldcom and Microstrategy all blew up due to fraud in the 2000-2001 time frame.

It's 1999 again.

j45 1y ago

Truly, except now everyone's online and spending time online and spending cash online.

pixl97 1y ago
And, the .com bomb killed some companies and slowed down spending for a bit. It did not kill the internet, and now companies like Amazon(.com) are absolutely enormous. Some people think the GenAI bomb is going to kill GenAI, I think it's just going to weed out those with too high of expenses and no way to evolve the compute to be cheaper over time.
- sech8420 1y ago
  "Some people think the GenAI bomb is going to kill GenAI," Sure, a very very small percentage of people who know hardly anything about GenAI might think this.
  - __loam 1y ago
    It's the opposite. The more I learn about the financial state of these companies the worse my opinion gets.
- j45 1y ago
  There was barely no one using the internet then let alone doing e-commerce. It’s worth reading up on it to see what’s actually comparable.
- oinfoalgo 1y ago
  The forward P/E of the Nasdaq 100 is pretty exemplary of how this is not the same situation at all. https://en.macromicro.me/series/23955/nasdaq-100-pe https://en.macromicro.me/series/23955/nasdaq-100-pe It is easy to spot the dot com bubble on this chart.
  - j45 1y ago
    It’s a fair point. At the same time there’s actual software and not vapourware of the dot com boom.

jonas21 1y ago

So you're saying they're basically right, but 5 or 10 years too optimistic on the timeline?

robbomacrae 1y ago
seems about right to me!

snerbles 1y ago

It'll be interesting to see what sort of Chewy-equivalents emerge after the pets.com-analogues collapse.

mensetmanusman 1y ago

1999 was triggered by fraud, there was far more demand on paper for high bandwidth applications than was justified for all the fiber layout and over-investment in Internet technologies. The difference today is that every piece of capitalism immediately 100% utilized once it is plugged in.

ModernMech 1y ago
Announcing to the world "AGI has been achieved internally" when that's not true seems like fraud to me.
- fzzzy 1y ago
  Who did that?
  - postflopclarity 1y ago
    Altman made this claim.
  - bigtunacan 1y ago
    Sam Altman made a post on Reddit in 2023 implying OpenAI had achieved AGI internally. Later he “clarified” it was a joke, however there was some speculation that he didn’t understand what AGI actually meant at the time.
woeirua 1y ago
Tell me you don't understand why the dot com crash happened without telling me you don't understand why the dot com crash happened.
- ac29 1y ago
  Calling the whole bubble fraud is wrong, but Enron, Worldcom and Microstrategy all blew up due to fraud in the 2000-2001 time frame.