4 ms·
There are 3 functional futures for AI coding assistants, depending on what they provide, and all of which support order of magnitude different pricing: 1. Vibe
by ethbr1 1y ago
There are 3 functional futures for AI coding assistants, depending on what they provide, and all of which support order of magnitude different pricing:
1. Vibe coder's wet dream = generates working technical product direct from product owner requirements = can be priced up to 99% of senior developer compensation (incl benefits / taxes)
2. Productivity multiplier = fills in gaps, but requires technical architecture and planning knowledge = can be priced up to 99% of junior developer compensation (incl benefits / taxes)
3. Macro on steroids = ignorantly expands code or performs basic tasks, but screws things up frequently enough, both obviously and subtly, to still benefit from even a junior dev driving it = can be priced up to 99% of team size reduction
Technically, even if we're only in #3 (and I think there's a strong case to be made that we're there), these solutions are drastically underpriced according to human labor decreasing (e.g. axing the equivalent FTE hours it would have taken to write test coverage).
* And don't forget the number they're replacing from the company perspective isn't {salary} but {salary+benefits+taxes}, which can be substantially greater
- torben-friis 1y agoExactly. Pretty much our only hope is that these tools get cheap enough to provide that competition drives the price down - ideally a locally run open source solution that gets you a significant part of the way there. And don’t forget that in your case one, they can pull the supermarket trick - keep prices low until the industry is destroyed, then price back up to a higher point than the crushed competition used to demand.
- ethbr1 1y agoI doubt repricing after market capture is going to work in this case. There's too much total addressable market at stake, and the end product (running code) is fungible. The only scenario where that happened was if one company (e.g. OpenAI) was multiple generations ahead and incredibly profitable. That's not the reality we live in: even if the other models all froze themselves they'd be close enough to serve as a springboard for a competitor, and OpenAI isn't even profitable.
- zaphirplane 1y agoI don’t agree with the numbers but who cares in five years they will all be true