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And yet zoning is just one factor in housing supply. Even successfully implementing upzoning laws can find markets with higher prices, rates of homelessness, an
by grafmax 1y ago
And yet zoning is just one factor in housing supply. Even successfully implementing upzoning laws can find markets with higher prices, rates of homelessness, and investor ownership of housing - because many factors influence these outcomes not just zoning laws.
- LastTrain 1y agoIs there an example where upzoning has resulted in reduced housing prices?
- softwaredoug 1y agoYes there is. It’s one of many factors. I did a deep dive years ago before wanting to support the issue locally IE: The Impact of Zoning on Housing Affordability https://www.nber.org/papers/w8835 https://www.nber.org/papers/w8835 > we argue that high prices have little to do with conventional models with a free market for land. Instead, our evidence suggests that zoning and other land use controls, play the dominant role in making housing expensive.
- grafmax 1y ago> an example where upzoning has resulted in reduced housing prices I found an argument in your paper but no such examples.
- LastTrain 1y agoI’ve not been able to find any, which is not to say there aren’t any, but when you have these conversations the inevitable result is getting called a NIMBY so I tend to abandon them early.
- pgwhalen 1y agoYes, here's an episode of a podcast with the authors of such a paper. https://www.lewis.ucla.edu/2024/12/11/83-local-effects-of-upzoning-with-elena-lutz-and-simon-buchler/ https://www.lewis.ucla.edu/2024/12/11/83-local-effects-of-up...
- LastTrain 1y agoThanks. Zurich. I don’t think even the authors would call this a slam dunk, and they cite it as the best available example. I do appreciate that they rightly call out that upzoning will cause movements in the population and the potential benefits will take decades to materialize.
- pgwhalen 1y agoI’m not sure what “slam dunk” means in this context, but they do note how clear the effect is, even if it does unfortunately take 5-10 years before it shows.
- grafmax 1y agoIt looks like rent stayed the same there. It didn’t decrease.
- softwaredoug 1y agoYes I agree it’s just one factor. It’s necessary but not sufficient. I think I another huge constraint is construction labor. Which is very tight right now. I’m reminded we built the Empire State Building in 9 months. I see delays for single family homes causing it to take years.
- lotsofpulp 1y agoThose aren’t comparable. A delay in a standard stick built home would be due to legal issues. Otherwise, tract homebuilders in the US have metrics of building a brand new house within 100 days. The labor costs are high, but not that high that construction is delayed due to lack of labor. Land prices and clearing legal hurdles are the bigger problem.
- Bjartr 1y agoAn important consideration for the Empire State Building is that it was not built by the lowest bidder. It was built by those who were considered most likely to be successful at the endeavor.