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With the US unemployment rate being so low, with birth rates below replacement levels, and with anti-immigration sentiment: how do proponents of "bring everythi

With the US unemployment rate being so low, with birth rates below replacement levels, and with anti-immigration sentiment: how do proponents of "bring everything back" plan to deal with the human capital problem? Besides that, bringing everything back would surely raise prices quite substantially and we've seen how voters reacted to COVID inflation.

ericmay 1y ago
There are 340 million or so people in the United States - what’s the human capital problem? It seems like we have a skills gap, and I’d agree if that’s what you had in mind, but shear manpower? I’d have to see some extraordinary evidence to convince me otherwise. Even for agriculture or construction it’s not like America can’t issue seasonal work permits or something. We have plenty of levers there and plenty of folks who would come work here. > Besides that, bringing everything back would surely raise prices quite substantially and we've seen how voters reacted to COVID inflation. Agreed, but if both parties get behind it, I don’t think it would matter too much.
- hypeatei 1y ago
  > There are 340 million or so people in the United States - what’s the human capital problem? As I mentioned, the unemployment rate is already low. Looking at total population numbers is a fools errand since not every single person is able to work (or willing) > it’s not like America can’t issue seasonal work permits or something How does that fare against the anti-immigration i.e. "only Americans should work these jobs" sentiment? > and plenty of folks who would come work here. Agreed. > but if both parties get behind it, I don’t think it would matter too much. That's pretty hand wavey and doesn't address the very price sensitive culture that the US voter base has.
  - ericmay 1y ago
    > As I mentioned, the unemployment rate is already low. Looking at total population numbers is a fools errand since not every single person is able to work (or willing) Similarly looking at the unemployment number (which is rising) doesn’t give you the full picture in this context, because full employment != efficient employment. Something like yea maybe we just have fewer Starbucks baristas or web developers and instead they go into manufacturing and construction. Starbucks responds by automating or closing some borderline profitable stores, or people stop buying Starbucks but spend more on an espresso machine or a TV made in the USA. To rephrase maybe, I don’t disagree with your broader point, but I’m just not sure our population’s work efforts are being efficiently allocated. They’re focused on service sector economy generated positions (dating apps, coffee shops, clerical work - contrived examples), but we can change the mix-up and orientation of our economy. So you get less of some jobs and folks switch around some. > How does that fare against the anti-immigration i.e. "only Americans should work these jobs" sentiment? Idk, doesn’t seem to bother my neighbor having a new garage built with very clearly immigrant labor. I don’t care either, though I support secure borders and fair paths to immigration. I think how people generally feel about immigration is similar, though Trumpistan is just -particularly loud about the worst and dumbest aspects of it, whereas the vast majority of people aren’t that crazy. At least that has been my experience living in Ohio. > That's pretty hand wavey and doesn't address the very price sensitive culture that the US voter base has Well if both parties supported the approximate same position, voters would go to the ballot box and either pick the Republican version of it or the Democratic version of it. People can be lead to believe anything. War is peace, freedom is slavery, inflation is deflation, etc. I won’t say it’s not hand-wavy, but politics is kind of hand-wavy sometimes isn’t it?
    - to11mtm 1y ago
      > dating apps Well played. Fun story, once upon a time I remember seeing a dating profile where they flat out gave a cashapp if you wanted to talk to them. Within 3 months somehow I discovered they worked at the same shop I did, and when I asked about their 'diffuser' they were more than happy to send me an amazon link to buy one, which was an affiliate link.
- to11mtm 1y ago
  > There are 340 million or so people in the United States - what’s the human capital problem? I'll be bold and suggest that the 'third rail' human capital problem that almost feels sidestepped by the Parent comment you're replying to (i.e. maybe that's what they are asking, but really is the question everyone should be asking,) is the question of how there will be enough jobs paying into the overall 'system' to sustain any of it. > Even for agriculture or construction it’s not like America can’t issue seasonal work permits or something. We have plenty of levers there and plenty of folks who would come work here. But those would be can kicks, and 'properly' implementing most of those levers would just increase the cost. On some level 'work permits' are a can-kick, we are saying we can't pay people inside our country enough to do the work which in itself indicates an imbalance somewhere. > Agreed, but if both parties get behind it, I don’t think it would matter too much. I feel like this ignores the second+ order effects. US Petrodollar hegemony has been for better or worse a sort of global constant despite Nixon Shock [0] and we IMO don't have the necessary infrastructure to handle another round of that, because this time around we've got way less manufacturing capacity to keep the circus running [1]. The biggest problem being, 'complacency via placation' has been too ingrained in folks for lots of reasons, and now we are in a situation where people aren't willing to give up simple things. I mean you imagine the reaction of your modern American[2] if they had to do something like deal with gas rations, let alone limitations on how much waste they could create... [0] - I bet folks are watching what's going on with Yen Carry trade very closely [1] - I will die on the hill that 'Ashtabula Cranks' are a benchmark of basic US Manufacturing capability tho. [2] - I am, but also I saw what happened during covid
abe_m 1y ago
While official unemployment is low, that is only people actively looking for work. Labour force participation is way down from it's highs when it peaked in the late 90's. From a peak of around 67%, the US is currently at 62%[1], and the fall off corresponds to the time when imports from China were rising hard and it was the trendy thing to do among executives to shutdown US plants and move production to China. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART/ Many people and towns that lost work in the manufacturing shut downs still don't have replacement work, and I think part of that is we lost a lot of low-skilled labour work as the factories left. Now a question would be, if the work does come back, will it be low skilled enough to be able to hire the same pool of people formerly employed?
- graeme 1y ago
  Unfortunately I think that's just aging of the population. There's no upper age limit in that calculation. It includes retirees as "not in the labour force". If you look at the participation rate of people aged 25-54 it's near all time highs. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060
  - abe_m 1y ago
    Something is weird there, as the 55+ was increasing in the period of about 1995 to 2010, while the overall was down in point 2000, and 25-54 was flat. Weird. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11324230 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11324230
    - to11mtm 1y ago
      Something's weird but there's so many factors it's hard to say exactly -what-. e.x. In the 90s there was a lot of 'culling' of older workers especially if they didn't embrace tech I know my father was forced into retirement despite being a fully capable worker (heck he did database consulting work for a transit system after the forced retirement, before he became a floral delivery driver.) In his case, he wanted to retire, but honestly he tried to give me and my siblings a better life so the consulting and part time jobs were something to help pay off PLUS loans while also letting him and my mom be able to do vacations and the like. But I'm also thinking about the factor of a lot of folks had a lot of hits. Also 25-54 is such a rough demographic.... Lots of ways to just keep that metric clean FBOW.

ericmay 1y ago

There are 340 million or so people in the United States - what’s the human capital problem? It seems like we have a skills gap, and I’d agree if that’s what you had in mind, but shear manpower? I’d have to see some extraordinary evidence to convince me otherwise. Even for agriculture or construction it’s not like America can’t issue seasonal work permits or something. We have plenty of levers there and plenty of folks who would come work here. > Besides that, bringing everything back would surely raise prices quite substantially and we've seen how voters reacted to COVID inflation. Agreed, but if both parties get behind it, I don’t think it would matter too much.

hypeatei 1y ago
> There are 340 million or so people in the United States - what’s the human capital problem? As I mentioned, the unemployment rate is already low. Looking at total population numbers is a fools errand since not every single person is able to work (or willing) > it’s not like America can’t issue seasonal work permits or something How does that fare against the anti-immigration i.e. "only Americans should work these jobs" sentiment? > and plenty of folks who would come work here. Agreed. > but if both parties get behind it, I don’t think it would matter too much. That's pretty hand wavey and doesn't address the very price sensitive culture that the US voter base has.
- ericmay 1y ago
  > As I mentioned, the unemployment rate is already low. Looking at total population numbers is a fools errand since not every single person is able to work (or willing) Similarly looking at the unemployment number (which is rising) doesn’t give you the full picture in this context, because full employment != efficient employment. Something like yea maybe we just have fewer Starbucks baristas or web developers and instead they go into manufacturing and construction. Starbucks responds by automating or closing some borderline profitable stores, or people stop buying Starbucks but spend more on an espresso machine or a TV made in the USA. To rephrase maybe, I don’t disagree with your broader point, but I’m just not sure our population’s work efforts are being efficiently allocated. They’re focused on service sector economy generated positions (dating apps, coffee shops, clerical work - contrived examples), but we can change the mix-up and orientation of our economy. So you get less of some jobs and folks switch around some. > How does that fare against the anti-immigration i.e. "only Americans should work these jobs" sentiment? Idk, doesn’t seem to bother my neighbor having a new garage built with very clearly immigrant labor. I don’t care either, though I support secure borders and fair paths to immigration. I think how people generally feel about immigration is similar, though Trumpistan is just -particularly loud about the worst and dumbest aspects of it, whereas the vast majority of people aren’t that crazy. At least that has been my experience living in Ohio. > That's pretty hand wavey and doesn't address the very price sensitive culture that the US voter base has Well if both parties supported the approximate same position, voters would go to the ballot box and either pick the Republican version of it or the Democratic version of it. People can be lead to believe anything. War is peace, freedom is slavery, inflation is deflation, etc. I won’t say it’s not hand-wavy, but politics is kind of hand-wavy sometimes isn’t it?
  - to11mtm 1y ago
    > dating apps Well played. Fun story, once upon a time I remember seeing a dating profile where they flat out gave a cashapp if you wanted to talk to them. Within 3 months somehow I discovered they worked at the same shop I did, and when I asked about their 'diffuser' they were more than happy to send me an amazon link to buy one, which was an affiliate link.
to11mtm 1y ago
> There are 340 million or so people in the United States - what’s the human capital problem? I'll be bold and suggest that the 'third rail' human capital problem that almost feels sidestepped by the Parent comment you're replying to (i.e. maybe that's what they are asking, but really is the question everyone should be asking,) is the question of how there will be enough jobs paying into the overall 'system' to sustain any of it. > Even for agriculture or construction it’s not like America can’t issue seasonal work permits or something. We have plenty of levers there and plenty of folks who would come work here. But those would be can kicks, and 'properly' implementing most of those levers would just increase the cost. On some level 'work permits' are a can-kick, we are saying we can't pay people inside our country enough to do the work which in itself indicates an imbalance somewhere. > Agreed, but if both parties get behind it, I don’t think it would matter too much. I feel like this ignores the second+ order effects. US Petrodollar hegemony has been for better or worse a sort of global constant despite Nixon Shock [0] and we IMO don't have the necessary infrastructure to handle another round of that, because this time around we've got way less manufacturing capacity to keep the circus running [1]. The biggest problem being, 'complacency via placation' has been too ingrained in folks for lots of reasons, and now we are in a situation where people aren't willing to give up simple things. I mean you imagine the reaction of your modern American[2] if they had to do something like deal with gas rations, let alone limitations on how much waste they could create... [0] - I bet folks are watching what's going on with Yen Carry trade very closely [1] - I will die on the hill that 'Ashtabula Cranks' are a benchmark of basic US Manufacturing capability tho. [2] - I am, but also I saw what happened during covid

abe_m 1y ago

While official unemployment is low, that is only people actively looking for work. Labour force participation is way down from it's highs when it peaked in the late 90's. From a peak of around 67%, the US is currently at 62%[1], and the fall off corresponds to the time when imports from China were rising hard and it was the trendy thing to do among executives to shutdown US plants and move production to China. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART/ Many people and towns that lost work in the manufacturing shut downs still don't have replacement work, and I think part of that is we lost a lot of low-skilled labour work as the factories left. Now a question would be, if the work does come back, will it be low skilled enough to be able to hire the same pool of people formerly employed?

graeme 1y ago
Unfortunately I think that's just aging of the population. There's no upper age limit in that calculation. It includes retirees as "not in the labour force". If you look at the participation rate of people aged 25-54 it's near all time highs. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060
- abe_m 1y ago
  Something is weird there, as the 55+ was increasing in the period of about 1995 to 2010, while the overall was down in point 2000, and 25-54 was flat. Weird. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11324230 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11324230
  - to11mtm 1y ago
    Something's weird but there's so many factors it's hard to say exactly -what-. e.x. In the 90s there was a lot of 'culling' of older workers especially if they didn't embrace tech I know my father was forced into retirement despite being a fully capable worker (heck he did database consulting work for a transit system after the forced retirement, before he became a floral delivery driver.) In his case, he wanted to retire, but honestly he tried to give me and my siblings a better life so the consulting and part time jobs were something to help pay off PLUS loans while also letting him and my mom be able to do vacations and the like. But I'm also thinking about the factor of a lot of folks had a lot of hits. Also 25-54 is such a rough demographic.... Lots of ways to just keep that metric clean FBOW.