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I wish that “it will get better” wasn’t the response every time someone shares actionable advice and thoughtful specific criticism about the state of the art.

by latexr 1y ago

I wish that “it will get better” wasn’t the response every time someone shares actionable advice and thoughtful specific criticism about the state of the art. You don’t know if it will get better. Even if it does, you don’t know by how much or the time frame. You don’t know if it will ever improve enough to overcome the current limitations. You don’t know if it will take years. In the meantime, while someone is sitting on their ass for years waiting for the uncertain future of the tool getting better, someone else is getting their hands dirty, learning the craft, improving, having fun, collaborating, creating. There is plenty of garbage out there where we were promised “it will only get better”, “in five years (eternally five years away) it will take over the world”, and now they’re dead. Where’s the metaverse NFT web3 future? Thrown into a trash can and lit on fire, replaced by the next embarrassment of chatting with porn versions of your step mom. https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1mrygl4/this_is_fucking_insane/ https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1mrygl4/this_i...

soulofmischief 1y ago
On the other hand, as both an artist and machine learning practitioner, I think most artists are only seeing the surface layer here and have little insight on its derivative, the algorithms and state of research which are advancing the state of the art on a weekly basis. It'll never be obvious that we're at the critical moment because critical phase changes happen all at once, suddenly, out of nowhere. There is an insane amount of low-hanging fruit right now, and potentially decades or centuries of very important math to be worked out around optimal learning strategies, but it's clear that we do have a very strong likelihood of our ways of life being fundamentally altered by these technologies. I mean already, artists are suddenly having to grip with all sorts of new and forgotten questions around artistic identity and integrity, what qualifies as art, who qualifies as an artist... Generative technology has already made artists begin to question and radically redefine the nature of art, and if it's good enough to do that, I think it's already worth serious consideration. These technologies, even in current form, were considered science fiction or literal magic up until very recently.
- latexr 1y ago
  > I think most artists are only seeing the surface layer here and have little insight on its derivative (…) > Generative technology has already made artists begin to question and radically redefine the nature of art (…) So which is it? Are artist not understanding the potential of the technology, or are they so flabbergasted they are redefining the nature of art? It can’t be both. > There is an insane amount of low-hanging fruit right now Precisely. What I’m criticising is the generic low-effort response of assuming that being able to pick low-hanging fruit now indicates with certainty that the high-hanging fruit will be picked soon. It doesn’t. As an exaggerated analogy, building the first paper airplane or boat might’ve been fun and impressive, but it was in no way an indication we’d be able to construct rockets or submarines. We eventually did, but it took a very long time and completely different technology. To really drive the point home, my comment wasn’t specifically about art or LLMs or the user I replied to. What I am against is the lazy hand-wavy extrapolation which is used to justify anything. As long as you say it’s five years away, you can shut down any interesting discussion. > These technologies, even in current form, were considered science fiction or literal magic up until very recently. I don’t recall science fiction or magical stories—not any that weren’t written as cautionary tales or about revolution, anyway—which had talking robots which were wrong most of the time yet spoke authoritatively; convinced people to inadvertently poison or kill themselves and others; were used for spam and disinformation on a large scale; and accelerated the concentration of power for the very few at the top. Not every science fiction is good. In fact, plenty of it is very very bad. There’s a reason the Torment Nexus is a meme.
  - soulofmischief 1y ago
    > So which is it? Are artist not understanding the potential of the technology, or are they so flabbergasted they are redefining the nature of art? It can’t be both. Different people have different relationships with generative technologies and have different experiences. It can be the same at both times, because there are a lot of people out there, and there are many artists with both technical and artistic interests. > What I’m criticising is the generic low-effort response of assuming that being able to pick low-hanging fruit now indicates with certainty that the high-hanging fruit will be picked soon. I mean if we can have both more compute and more efficient compute due to those low-hanging fruits and Moore's law, it's reasonable to assume that things can get much better to the point of being economical, useful or even essential for a new generation of people, even if we don't see any massive shifts in the current paradigm. > I don’t recall science fiction or magical stories—not any that weren’t written as cautionary tales or about revolution, anyway—which had talking robots which were wrong most of the time yet spoke authoritatively Because people had an understandably naive understanding of what AI progress might look like, or the timescales involved. > Not every science fiction is good. In fact, plenty of it is very very bad I'm not sure what this has to do with anything. In general, I don't understand or appreciate your hostile tone and would like for this conversation to take a more positive tone or for us to just drop it.
sbarre 1y ago
> You don’t know if it will get better. Even if it does, you don’t know by how much or the time frame. You don’t know if it will ever improve enough to overcome the current limitations. You don’t know if it will take years. You are _technically_ correct but if I base my assumptions on the fact that almost all worthwhile software and technology has gotten better over the years, I feel pretty confident in standing behind that assumption. > In the meantime, while someone is sitting on their ass for years waiting for the uncertain future of the tool getting better, someone else is getting their hands dirty, learning the craft, improving, having fun, collaborating, creating. This is a pretty cynical take. We all decide where we prioritize our efforts and spend our time in life, and very few of us have the luxury to freely choose where we want to focus our learning. While I wait for technologies I enjoy but haven't mastered to get better, I am certainly not "sitting on my ass".. I am dedicating my time to other necessary things like making a living or supporting my family. In this specific case I wish I could spend hours and hours getting good at Blender and 3D modelling or animation. Dog knows I tried when I was younger.. But it wasn't in the cards. I'm allowed to be excited at the prospect that technology advancements will make this more accessible and interesting for me to explore and enjoy with less time investment. I also want to "get my hands dirty, learn, improve, have fun, create" but on my own terms and in my own time. Any objection to that is shitty gatekeeping.
- nativeit 1y ago
  The absolute nanosecond someone suggests using this over skilled labor, the “shitty gatekeeping” roles reverse. I personally care more about the skilled labor than your optimism.
  - sbarre 1y ago
    I am in no way implying that these advancements should/would make me better than a skilled professional, nor do I believe they will ever replace true expertise or craft. These kinds of advancements lower the bar for entry and reduce the effort required to achieve better results, and so make the tools more accessible to more people. And that is a good thing. The scenario you are implying is laying the choices of people at the feet of the tools, rather than holding the people accountable. Also: history has, so far, mostly proven that the end result of better tools is better experts, not less experts.

by latexr 1y ago

soulofmischief 1y ago

On the other hand, as both an artist and machine learning practitioner, I think most artists are only seeing the surface layer here and have little insight on its derivative, the algorithms and state of research which are advancing the state of the art on a weekly basis. It'll never be obvious that we're at the critical moment because critical phase changes happen all at once, suddenly, out of nowhere. There is an insane amount of low-hanging fruit right now, and potentially decades or centuries of very important math to be worked out around optimal learning strategies, but it's clear that we do have a very strong likelihood of our ways of life being fundamentally altered by these technologies. I mean already, artists are suddenly having to grip with all sorts of new and forgotten questions around artistic identity and integrity, what qualifies as art, who qualifies as an artist... Generative technology has already made artists begin to question and radically redefine the nature of art, and if it's good enough to do that, I think it's already worth serious consideration. These technologies, even in current form, were considered science fiction or literal magic up until very recently.

latexr 1y ago
> I think most artists are only seeing the surface layer here and have little insight on its derivative (…) > Generative technology has already made artists begin to question and radically redefine the nature of art (…) So which is it? Are artist not understanding the potential of the technology, or are they so flabbergasted they are redefining the nature of art? It can’t be both. > There is an insane amount of low-hanging fruit right now Precisely. What I’m criticising is the generic low-effort response of assuming that being able to pick low-hanging fruit now indicates with certainty that the high-hanging fruit will be picked soon. It doesn’t. As an exaggerated analogy, building the first paper airplane or boat might’ve been fun and impressive, but it was in no way an indication we’d be able to construct rockets or submarines. We eventually did, but it took a very long time and completely different technology. To really drive the point home, my comment wasn’t specifically about art or LLMs or the user I replied to. What I am against is the lazy hand-wavy extrapolation which is used to justify anything. As long as you say it’s five years away, you can shut down any interesting discussion. > These technologies, even in current form, were considered science fiction or literal magic up until very recently. I don’t recall science fiction or magical stories—not any that weren’t written as cautionary tales or about revolution, anyway—which had talking robots which were wrong most of the time yet spoke authoritatively; convinced people to inadvertently poison or kill themselves and others; were used for spam and disinformation on a large scale; and accelerated the concentration of power for the very few at the top. Not every science fiction is good. In fact, plenty of it is very very bad. There’s a reason the Torment Nexus is a meme.
- soulofmischief 1y ago
  > So which is it? Are artist not understanding the potential of the technology, or are they so flabbergasted they are redefining the nature of art? It can’t be both. Different people have different relationships with generative technologies and have different experiences. It can be the same at both times, because there are a lot of people out there, and there are many artists with both technical and artistic interests. > What I’m criticising is the generic low-effort response of assuming that being able to pick low-hanging fruit now indicates with certainty that the high-hanging fruit will be picked soon. I mean if we can have both more compute and more efficient compute due to those low-hanging fruits and Moore's law, it's reasonable to assume that things can get much better to the point of being economical, useful or even essential for a new generation of people, even if we don't see any massive shifts in the current paradigm. > I don’t recall science fiction or magical stories—not any that weren’t written as cautionary tales or about revolution, anyway—which had talking robots which were wrong most of the time yet spoke authoritatively Because people had an understandably naive understanding of what AI progress might look like, or the timescales involved. > Not every science fiction is good. In fact, plenty of it is very very bad I'm not sure what this has to do with anything. In general, I don't understand or appreciate your hostile tone and would like for this conversation to take a more positive tone or for us to just drop it.

sbarre 1y ago

> You don’t know if it will get better. Even if it does, you don’t know by how much or the time frame. You don’t know if it will ever improve enough to overcome the current limitations. You don’t know if it will take years. You are _technically_ correct but if I base my assumptions on the fact that almost all worthwhile software and technology has gotten better over the years, I feel pretty confident in standing behind that assumption. > In the meantime, while someone is sitting on their ass for years waiting for the uncertain future of the tool getting better, someone else is getting their hands dirty, learning the craft, improving, having fun, collaborating, creating. This is a pretty cynical take. We all decide where we prioritize our efforts and spend our time in life, and very few of us have the luxury to freely choose where we want to focus our learning. While I wait for technologies I enjoy but haven't mastered to get better, I am certainly not "sitting on my ass".. I am dedicating my time to other necessary things like making a living or supporting my family. In this specific case I wish I could spend hours and hours getting good at Blender and 3D modelling or animation. Dog knows I tried when I was younger.. But it wasn't in the cards. I'm allowed to be excited at the prospect that technology advancements will make this more accessible and interesting for me to explore and enjoy with less time investment. I also want to "get my hands dirty, learn, improve, have fun, create" but on my own terms and in my own time. Any objection to that is shitty gatekeeping.

nativeit 1y ago
The absolute nanosecond someone suggests using this over skilled labor, the “shitty gatekeeping” roles reverse. I personally care more about the skilled labor than your optimism.
- sbarre 1y ago
  I am in no way implying that these advancements should/would make me better than a skilled professional, nor do I believe they will ever replace true expertise or craft. These kinds of advancements lower the bar for entry and reduce the effort required to achieve better results, and so make the tools more accessible to more people. And that is a good thing. The scenario you are implying is laying the choices of people at the feet of the tools, rather than holding the people accountable. Also: history has, so far, mostly proven that the end result of better tools is better experts, not less experts.