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That form of migration is happening all over the world right now. Virginia opossums, traditionally associated with the deep south, are now routinely spotted ar
by A_D_E_P_T 1y ago
That form of migration is happening all over the world right now.
Virginia opossums, traditionally associated with the deep south, are now routinely spotted around Toronto, and are moving even further north. Armadillos, though still shy of the Canadian border, have crossed the Ohio River. American alligators, long stopped around Cape Hatteras, are now spotted in the tidal creeks of Virginia’s Eastern Shore. [1] Lobsters are moving north to the Canadian Maritimes from New England, and the blue crabs of Chesapeake Bay are filling the niches they're leaving behind.
It's much the same way in Europe. The European praying mantis used to be a hot-climate central Italian and Balkan insect. Now it's routinely spotted in Germany, has been found as far north as Latvia, and I found one in the usually-chilly Slovenian mountains just the other day!
Wherever you are on the map, look at the climate and ecosystem a few hundred miles south. That's likely where things are heading for you; it's a safe bet that the species that thrive there are the ones that are going to be best adapted to where you live in the second half of the 21st century.
[1] - https://defenders.org/blog/2023/12/why-we-almost-said-see-you-later-american-alligator https://defenders.org/blog/2023/12/why-we-almost-said-see-yo...
- ljf 1y agoI think the issue is for the animals that actually need a colder climate and/or rely on ice/snow cover - a warming world won't give them a new space to move to (yet).
- giarc 1y agoOne anecdote/example that has stuck with me is a heard of caribou in the Canadian north. In winter, they typically dig through the snow to find plants to eat. One year, with rising temperatures, a large area was left with a thick layer of ice on top of the snow. Precipitation was falling as rain (instead of snow) due to warmer temperatures, then freezing overnight creating this thick layer of ice. The caribou couldn't punch through the ice and ended up starving to death resulting in a mass die off.
- nwatson 1y agoThe ones that survived will have had more efficient metabolisms, or harder hooves that could break through the ice to get to the food, or could have learned a technique to cope. Hopefully their next generation will retain those traits or that culture to adapt.
- mapt 1y agoBigger animals have low numbers, larger ranges, less genetic variability, longer reproductive cycles, evolve much slower, and tend to go extinct much more reliably.
- ambicapter 1y agoYeah, animal species definitely successfully evolve over the course of a dozen years /s
- OJFord 1y agoI don't think GP's comment shows the lack of understanding of evolution that you're trying to point out: numerous similar events occurring to a range of herds over a period of time is exactly how that would happen isn't it? Not to say I agree (or not) this particular case would be effective, or that it's fine for man's influence to cause it, or anything. Just I don't think they showed any sign of thinking caribou would suddenly evolve like a Pokémon to have a stronger hoof or something.
- nwatson 1y agoYeah ... animal (and plant, etc.) populations in a stable environment have a lot of random variations that confer no outright distinct advantages over their peers, they are distributed along the normal plane to the current evolutionary gradient. When environments suddenly change, it's not like animal populations rapidly create new random mutations that confer advantages in subsequent generations. Rather, the new conditions make previously existing traits that some animals within the population had and others didn't have more significant to survival, and so those advantageous traits are emphasized in subsequent generations. After this "evolutionary bottleneck", other new random mutations / variations will occur generations later that might have no seeming immediate advantage / disadvantage to the "new normal", but at some subsequent change in the environment, the cycle of weeding out "bad" traits will happen again.
- mapt 1y agoWe may lose the sea ice and continental glaciers, but we'll probably still retain some ice with the intersection of extreme altitudes and extreme latitudes, at least for our lifetimes. A place like Denali is a lifeboat.
- Refreeze5224 1y ago> A place like Denali is a lifeboat. I think this is more accurate than you may have intended. It will be a single lifeboat, when the Titanic is sinking. Quite useful if you can get on it, and would guarantee survival, but for an awful small number relative to how many would like to be onboard.
- mapt 1y agoThe supposed Biblical Ark only held 2-7 of each animal. Denali is a big mountain, and will make a rather large zoo or a small nature preserve. But there are other Arctic ranges with less extreme altitudes that are going to prove useful as well in the "extremely alarmist and not worth considering seriously" scenarios that some of the data suggests we're heading towards. There is a question of whether there will be any space, what with all the condos. But humans are less constrained, having invented the pressurized condensation-evaporation heat pump refrigeration cycle, than the natural world.
- xandrius 1y agoYep but the Titanic is the whole planet and there isn't a place to get yo safety on such a lifeboat.
- dendrite9 1y agoLots of fruit trees need an accumulated number of cold hours every year. I've seen warnings about some plantings already having issues with not producing enough fruit.
- nsavage 1y agoThese are great examples, I have some more ancedotal evidence in Canada, such as the creeping north of the wine industry. Used to be just Point Pelee, then Niagara, and now even the Ottawa Valley has wineries.
- aceofspades19 1y agoThere have been wineries in the Okanagan Valley in BC since the 1800s which is farther north than Ottawa. So I am not sure that's a particularly good example.
- multiplegeorges 1y agoThe Okanagan is thousands of kilometers away and the south end connects to the Mojave Desert. This is not the great counter example you think it is.
- aceofspades19 1y agoMy point was, that simply latitude is kind of a meaningless metric as you can find different climates at all sorts of latitudes. It's more interesting that there are wineries in Ottawa because the climate in Ottawa is normally rather cold, not the latitude its at. There are lots of places with both colder & warmer climates along a similar latitude as Ottawa.
- mikestew 1y agoBecause the climate in the Okanagan is, and always has been, just like Ontario. For those playing at home, it’s a desert-like (if not outright desert) region, and for bonus points it’s on the other end of Canada. Talk about a not “particularly good example”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okanagan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okanagan
- aceofspades19 1y agoNo need for the snark. I live in BC and have been both to the Okanagan & various places in Ontario. My point was that simply something happening at a certain latitude does not necessarily mean anything as you can find all sorts of climates at different latitudes. It's notable that not only is Ottawa (or whatever example you want) is at a certain latitude but that it's traditional climate is rather cold.
- Scarblac 1y agoBut not all species are mobile enough, and up north the winters are darker and the summers are lighter. The shift will be incomplete, other species just go extinct.
- mapt 1y agoIn a time of rapid ecological change, highly mobile R-selected species have huge advantages.
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- adamgordonbell 1y agoNot doubting all this, but the possum thing is interesting. They were in southern ontario in my youth in essex county ( late 80s ). And google says they were reports as far back as the 60s of scattered sightings.
- myth_drannon 1y agoThe worst one is ticks and Lyme desease they carry
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- brabel 1y agoThey are very common in Sweden, and have always been as far as I know. Are they supposed to be only common in Southern Europe??
- SoftTalker 1y agoI think anywhere there are warm-blooded animals there are ticks.
- mikestew 1y agoNot in western Washington. But they’re coming.
- hereonout2 1y agoDon't know if birds count, but the egret population has exploded in the UK in the last 10 years. There's zoos here that have them in their exotic bird sections. Always makes me smile as they are often visible even in London parks and rivers.
- Workaccount2 1y agoAnd the mother f-ing ticks spreading everywhere on the US east coast!
- mathiaspoint 1y agoMaybe you're new here or spent most of your life in the city but at least in the mid Atlantic ticks have always been a problem. I don't like pesticide but the ticks mean it isn't optional.
- digitalsushi 1y agoI have flanking neighbors who nuke their lawns every month with permethrin. They leave little business signs on the front lawn as spam. I have 14 apple trees and haven't grown an apple in years. It's fine, they are free to do anything and everything they like with their lawns. I just think it would be really neat to grow an apple again. You know, I'm not even a biologist and its probably a fluke I dont appreciate.
- mathiaspoint 1y agoLyme disease is no joke man. You don't mess around with ticks.
- aaomidi 1y agoIf only we had a vaccine for it. Oh wait.
- kalleboo 1y agoI'm not from somewhere where any of this is relevant so I was really curious why the comment you are replying to was downvoted into gray in 7 minutes (is Lyme disease a contentious issue??) and was ready to post a reply asking why but refreshed before I posted it. I saw your comment and did a web search and the first hit was a US Centre for Disease Control page that says "A vaccine for Lyme disease is not currently available, the only vaccine previously marketed in the United States was discontinued by the manufacturer" I'm more confused than ever. Can people stop vagueposting assuming everyone knows everything and just start saying what they mean?
- jddj 1y ago> Wherever you are on the map, look... a few hundred miles south The top half, at least. Sorry.
- kareemm 1y ago> Lobsters are moving north to the Canadian Maritimes from New England Lobsters have been in the Canadian Maritimes for centuries.
- A_D_E_P_T 1y agoYeah but they're abandoning parts further south. Southern lobster populations (esp. around CT and RI) have been dropping for years, and are now pretty much in full collapse. There used to be a lot of lobster outside the gulf of Maine, but this is in process of becoming a thing of the past. With the lobsters moving north, their niche is being filled by exploding populations of blue crab...
- wahern 1y ago> With the lobsters moving north, their niche is being filled by exploding populations of blue crab... Apropos HN, any startups targeting the (potential) future growth in the blue crab market?
- FuriouslyAdrift 1y agoWe officially have armadillos in Indianapolis... it's so weird. https://www.wthr.com/article/news/local/armadillos-in-indiana-the-armored-animals-are-now-established-in-the-hoosier-state-nine-banded-us-geological-survey-marion-county-breeding/531-b2261751-9f04-4402-85eb-71bb292e51d4 https://www.wthr.com/article/news/local/armadillos-in-indian...
- mikestew 1y agoGrew up in Indiana, left 30 years ago, and never did I imagine that I’d be reading that within my lifetime.