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I'm sure plenty of cancer patients would pay good money for a digital genius doctor who can custom design a drug to target their cancer.

by klipt 1y ago

827a 1y ago
Again, this doesn't require intelligence, beyond a point. Breakthrough medical therapies aren't invented by 180 IQ Einsteinian hyper-intellectuals. My point in being pedantic about this is to just point out that an extreme amount of value could be generated by these systems if they only attained the capability to do the things 110 IQ humans already do today. Instead of optimizing toward that goal, the frontier labs seem obsessed with optimizing toward some other weird goal of hyper-intelligence that has very unclear marketability. When pressed on this, leaders in these companies will say "its transferable"; that hyper-intellectuality will suddenly unlock realistic 110 IQ use-cases; but we're increasingly seeing, quite clearly to me, that this isn't the case. And there's very good first principal reasons why you should believe that it won't be.
- Gud 1y ago
  No, because Einstein-level intelligence is rare. But 180 IQ intelligence that doesn’t sleep doesn’t stop with instant access to the worlds knowledge will absolutely be able to revolutionise the sciences.
  - mlyle 1y ago
    So, I'm not sure 180 IQ intelligence can. But something that has equivalence to high human intelligence (say 140IQ, generalized to a wide variety of domains) and can engage in long-term directed, purposeful, and autonomous behavior will (not all humans of high intelligence cross this bar, but the ones that do tend to make an impact).
- mlyle 1y ago
  I would argue that AI is able to do a lot of what a 110 IQ human does today already-- at least the 30% of the population that is of average intelligence and has a below average appetite for growth and challenge. And sure, it's not perfectly transferable. It's going to be a long time before it can fix my plumbing, but there's a fair number of tasks that it can do now that are useful. > toward some other weird goal of hyper-intelligence I think the near term goal is something that can do most human tasks of the scope of tens of minutes of work at a computer, without task selection or self-direction. In some ways this looks superhuman, doing this stuff at high speed and 24/7. But it's superhuman like a mechanical loom is superhuman. Even better would be something you could delegate higher level goals, including tasks of larger scope and duration, but that's slower coming.

I'm sure plenty of cancer patients would pay good money for a digital genius doctor who can custom design a drug to target their cancer.

by klipt 1y ago

I'm sure plenty of cancer patients would pay good money for a digital genius doctor who can custom design a drug to target their cancer.

827a 1y ago

Again, this doesn't require intelligence, beyond a point. Breakthrough medical therapies aren't invented by 180 IQ Einsteinian hyper-intellectuals. My point in being pedantic about this is to just point out that an extreme amount of value could be generated by these systems if they only attained the capability to do the things 110 IQ humans already do today. Instead of optimizing toward that goal, the frontier labs seem obsessed with optimizing toward some other weird goal of hyper-intelligence that has very unclear marketability. When pressed on this, leaders in these companies will say "its transferable"; that hyper-intellectuality will suddenly unlock realistic 110 IQ use-cases; but we're increasingly seeing, quite clearly to me, that this isn't the case. And there's very good first principal reasons why you should believe that it won't be.

Gud 1y ago
No, because Einstein-level intelligence is rare. But 180 IQ intelligence that doesn’t sleep doesn’t stop with instant access to the worlds knowledge will absolutely be able to revolutionise the sciences.
- mlyle 1y ago
  So, I'm not sure 180 IQ intelligence can. But something that has equivalence to high human intelligence (say 140IQ, generalized to a wide variety of domains) and can engage in long-term directed, purposeful, and autonomous behavior will (not all humans of high intelligence cross this bar, but the ones that do tend to make an impact).
mlyle 1y ago
I would argue that AI is able to do a lot of what a 110 IQ human does today already-- at least the 30% of the population that is of average intelligence and has a below average appetite for growth and challenge. And sure, it's not perfectly transferable. It's going to be a long time before it can fix my plumbing, but there's a fair number of tasks that it can do now that are useful. > toward some other weird goal of hyper-intelligence I think the near term goal is something that can do most human tasks of the scope of tens of minutes of work at a computer, without task selection or self-direction. In some ways this looks superhuman, doing this stuff at high speed and 24/7. But it's superhuman like a mechanical loom is superhuman. Even better would be something you could delegate higher level goals, including tasks of larger scope and duration, but that's slower coming.