5 ms·

No question, and especially now with Linux running on billions of devices (if you include Android in that at least), it would be kind of difficult to make a cas

No question, and especially now with Linux running on billions of devices (if you include Android in that at least), it would be kind of difficult to make a case for a brand new desktop operating system. A lot of the weird edge cases for Linux have been found and fixed and ironed out through decades of continued use. I tried installing FreeBSD on a laptop years ago, which isn't really an "obscure" operating system or anything, but even that had a lot of compatibility problems with regards to drivers for wifi and GPUs, and even that would have a considerable head-start over something like Hurd if it were to try and take on the desktop world.

bee_rider 1y ago
Speaking of BSD, in the hypothetical no-Linux universe, that would be the obvious candidate for taking the Linux spot, right? Rather than Hurd. BSD might even have won in the Linux-included universe, if some random events has panned out differently. Why not, right?
- tombert 1y ago
  Didn't Linus even say that if he had known about BSD he wouldn't have bothered with Linux? I could totally see an alternate universe where BSD took over the world.
  - bombcar 1y ago
    It's arguable that the main reason Linux took off where BSD didn't was the fights and copyright arguments around BSD at the time. Had they not existed, or BSD been obviously free and clear, Linux might have been a footnote.
    - ghaff 1y ago
      A combination IMO of lingering issues around the AT&T lawsuit and various community issues within the BSDs.
      - flykespice 1y ago
        Yep, the copyrighted Socket code legal issue has stalled the BSD world for a considerable time. It's reasonable to conclude many users thought it was a deadend for BSD distros, and when Linux emerged as the most promising thing from all (free as in freedom, open to any contribution, not plagued by a closed governance like GNU hurd) they all emigrated en masses to the effort.
        ghaff 1y ago
        bcantrill has opined that, had Linus gone off to pursue ice sculpture instead, at least one of the BSDs would have figured out a way forward. (Though others suggest that Windows would just have won.) I tend to agree with Bryan though. https://bitmason.blogspot.com/2020/04/podcast-if-linux-didnt-exist-would-we.html https://bitmason.blogspot.com/2020/04/podcast-if-linux-didnt...
  - butterisgood 1y ago
    I recall either Linus or a major Linux contributor (Alan Cox?) saying that if he had had a math coprocessor, he would have likely just ran BSD. I don't think even 386BSD existed when Linus started Linux.
- jraph 1y ago
  It could have been that more effort would have been put in Hurd if Linux hadn't taken off. And then BSD could have won against Hurd anyway. Especially when corps like the permissive license and are afraid of the FSF.
- evanjrowley 1y ago
  Yes and no. The gaming industry serves as an illustrative example because we know the Sony Playstation 4 and 5 are both based on FreeBSD[0]. Compare Sony PlayStation Network[1] Monthly active users on PlayStation Network reached 123 million as of June 30, 2025. with Valve's Steam[2] Valve reported 132 million active monthly players (that is, they used Steam within the month, as opposed to being logged in at exact the same time) at the end of 2021... This isn't scientific, but if the same ratio of active monthly to peak concurrent users held through to today, back of the napkin math would put Steam's current active monthly users at 221.5 million With an optimistic estimate of current Monthly Active Users, if gaming on Linux grew overnight from 2.5% to 50% of total players on Steam, then it would still be slightly behind half of the people who are currently gaming on FreeBSD-based Playstation. FreeBSD code is also in iOS and macOS via Darwin, the Nintendo Switch, and the Microsoft Windows networking stack. Evidently BSD is a go-to choice for consumers today, but many don't realize it, and those of us who do often do not think about it. That's because the BSD license and the companies that use it result in products that bear no resemblance to the BSD we know. A similar situation occurred with Minix - to the extent that it's creator Andrew Tannenbaum had no idea it's install base was arguably bigger than Linux until 2017. Intel had put Minix into the Management Engine on their professional grade CPUs for years. The BSD license allowed Intel to put it everywhere without the knowledge of the wider Minix community. In some key ways, BSD is already taking the Linux spot, however, I'd argue that BSD can't truly take the Linux spot because the GPL license makes the Linux spot what it is. I honestly can't say if this makes Linux better or worse off. The most advanced technology of our time is largely not choosing copyleft licenses, and for those who did choose it, they've taken steps to distance themselves from it[3][4][5][6]. Given all this, I think Hurd has more of a chance to be the spiritual successor to Linux (if it disappeared). The only caveat is there is zero chance for a big-tech-dominated $200M "Hurd Foundation" to arise due to Hurd's's affiliation with the Free Software Foundation. Not much of the Linux Foundation's money actually goes to Linux, so it may not matter in the grand scheme of things[7]. [0] https://wololo.net/2023/03/22/new-freebsd-vulnerabilities-could-impact-ps4-ps5/ https://wololo.net/2023/03/22/new-freebsd-vulnerabilities-co... [1] https://www.psu.com/news/psn-hits-123-million-monthly-active-users-as-of-june-30-up-7-million-year-on-year/ https://www.psu.com/news/psn-hits-123-million-monthly-active... [2] https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/steam-just-cracked-40-million-concurrents-for-the-first-time-meaning-valves-user-count-was-bigger-than-80-percent-of-the-countries-in-the-united-nations/ https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/steam-just-cracked-4... [3] https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2017/05/googles-fuchsia-smartphone-os-dumps-linux-has-a-wild-new-ui/ https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2017/05/googles-fuchsia-smar... [4] https://www.androidauthority.com/google-android-development-aosp-3538503/ https://www.androidauthority.com/google-android-development-... [5] https://www.theregister.com/2023/06/23/red_hat_centos_move/ https://www.theregister.com/2023/06/23/red_hat_centos_move/ [6] https://lwn.net/Articles/655519/ https://lwn.net/Articles/655519/ [7] https://blog.desdelinux.net/en/The-annual-report-of-the-Linux-Foundation-reports-that-it-only-allocated-2-of-its-income-to-the-Linux-kernel./ https://blog.desdelinux.net/en/The-annual-report-of-the-Linu...
Twirrim 1y ago
> it would be kind of difficult to make a case for a brand new desktop operating system Google is sure trying with Fuscia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuchsia_(operating_system) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuchsia_(operating_system)
femto 1y ago
> especially now with Linux running on billions of devices Aren't those billions of Linux/Android instances typically running on top of an seL4 microkernel?
- yjftsjthsd-h 1y ago
  Are they? I can't seem to find evidence of Android using it
  - femto 1y ago
    At one point it was [1], and I'm not aware that that has changed. I've also a memory of talking to the seL4 team at a NICTA open day, and them saying it was widely deployed on Qualcomm based devices. It's not part of Android per se, sitting underneath Android and acting as a secure hypervisor, so any Android vulnerabilities are contained. [1] https://web.archive.org/web/20120211210405/http://www.ok-labs.com/releases/release/ok-labs-software-surpasses-milestone-of-1.5-billion-mobile-device-shipments https://web.archive.org/web/20120211210405/http://www.ok-lab...

bee_rider 1y ago

Speaking of BSD, in the hypothetical no-Linux universe, that would be the obvious candidate for taking the Linux spot, right? Rather than Hurd. BSD might even have won in the Linux-included universe, if some random events has panned out differently. Why not, right?

tombert 1y ago
Didn't Linus even say that if he had known about BSD he wouldn't have bothered with Linux? I could totally see an alternate universe where BSD took over the world.
- bombcar 1y ago
  It's arguable that the main reason Linux took off where BSD didn't was the fights and copyright arguments around BSD at the time. Had they not existed, or BSD been obviously free and clear, Linux might have been a footnote.
  - ghaff 1y ago
    A combination IMO of lingering issues around the AT&T lawsuit and various community issues within the BSDs.
    - flykespice 1y ago
      Yep, the copyrighted Socket code legal issue has stalled the BSD world for a considerable time. It's reasonable to conclude many users thought it was a deadend for BSD distros, and when Linux emerged as the most promising thing from all (free as in freedom, open to any contribution, not plagued by a closed governance like GNU hurd) they all emigrated en masses to the effort.
      - ghaff 1y ago
        bcantrill has opined that, had Linus gone off to pursue ice sculpture instead, at least one of the BSDs would have figured out a way forward. (Though others suggest that Windows would just have won.) I tend to agree with Bryan though. https://bitmason.blogspot.com/2020/04/podcast-if-linux-didnt-exist-would-we.html https://bitmason.blogspot.com/2020/04/podcast-if-linux-didnt...
- butterisgood 1y ago
  I recall either Linus or a major Linux contributor (Alan Cox?) saying that if he had had a math coprocessor, he would have likely just ran BSD. I don't think even 386BSD existed when Linus started Linux.
jraph 1y ago
It could have been that more effort would have been put in Hurd if Linux hadn't taken off. And then BSD could have won against Hurd anyway. Especially when corps like the permissive license and are afraid of the FSF.
evanjrowley 1y ago
Yes and no. The gaming industry serves as an illustrative example because we know the Sony Playstation 4 and 5 are both based on FreeBSD[0]. Compare Sony PlayStation Network[1] Monthly active users on PlayStation Network reached 123 million as of June 30, 2025. with Valve's Steam[2] Valve reported 132 million active monthly players (that is, they used Steam within the month, as opposed to being logged in at exact the same time) at the end of 2021... This isn't scientific, but if the same ratio of active monthly to peak concurrent users held through to today, back of the napkin math would put Steam's current active monthly users at 221.5 million With an optimistic estimate of current Monthly Active Users, if gaming on Linux grew overnight from 2.5% to 50% of total players on Steam, then it would still be slightly behind half of the people who are currently gaming on FreeBSD-based Playstation. FreeBSD code is also in iOS and macOS via Darwin, the Nintendo Switch, and the Microsoft Windows networking stack. Evidently BSD is a go-to choice for consumers today, but many don't realize it, and those of us who do often do not think about it. That's because the BSD license and the companies that use it result in products that bear no resemblance to the BSD we know. A similar situation occurred with Minix - to the extent that it's creator Andrew Tannenbaum had no idea it's install base was arguably bigger than Linux until 2017. Intel had put Minix into the Management Engine on their professional grade CPUs for years. The BSD license allowed Intel to put it everywhere without the knowledge of the wider Minix community. In some key ways, BSD is already taking the Linux spot, however, I'd argue that BSD can't truly take the Linux spot because the GPL license makes the Linux spot what it is. I honestly can't say if this makes Linux better or worse off. The most advanced technology of our time is largely not choosing copyleft licenses, and for those who did choose it, they've taken steps to distance themselves from it[3][4][5][6]. Given all this, I think Hurd has more of a chance to be the spiritual successor to Linux (if it disappeared). The only caveat is there is zero chance for a big-tech-dominated $200M "Hurd Foundation" to arise due to Hurd's's affiliation with the Free Software Foundation. Not much of the Linux Foundation's money actually goes to Linux, so it may not matter in the grand scheme of things[7]. [0] https://wololo.net/2023/03/22/new-freebsd-vulnerabilities-could-impact-ps4-ps5/ https://wololo.net/2023/03/22/new-freebsd-vulnerabilities-co... [1] https://www.psu.com/news/psn-hits-123-million-monthly-active-users-as-of-june-30-up-7-million-year-on-year/ https://www.psu.com/news/psn-hits-123-million-monthly-active... [2] https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/steam-just-cracked-40-million-concurrents-for-the-first-time-meaning-valves-user-count-was-bigger-than-80-percent-of-the-countries-in-the-united-nations/ https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/steam-just-cracked-4... [3] https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2017/05/googles-fuchsia-smartphone-os-dumps-linux-has-a-wild-new-ui/ https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2017/05/googles-fuchsia-smar... [4] https://www.androidauthority.com/google-android-development-aosp-3538503/ https://www.androidauthority.com/google-android-development-... [5] https://www.theregister.com/2023/06/23/red_hat_centos_move/ https://www.theregister.com/2023/06/23/red_hat_centos_move/ [6] https://lwn.net/Articles/655519/ https://lwn.net/Articles/655519/ [7] https://blog.desdelinux.net/en/The-annual-report-of-the-Linux-Foundation-reports-that-it-only-allocated-2-of-its-income-to-the-Linux-kernel./ https://blog.desdelinux.net/en/The-annual-report-of-the-Linu...

Twirrim 1y ago

> it would be kind of difficult to make a case for a brand new desktop operating system Google is sure trying with Fuscia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuchsia_(operating_system) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuchsia_(operating_system)

femto 1y ago

> especially now with Linux running on billions of devices Aren't those billions of Linux/Android instances typically running on top of an seL4 microkernel?

yjftsjthsd-h 1y ago
Are they? I can't seem to find evidence of Android using it
- femto 1y ago
  At one point it was [1], and I'm not aware that that has changed. I've also a memory of talking to the seL4 team at a NICTA open day, and them saying it was widely deployed on Qualcomm based devices. It's not part of Android per se, sitting underneath Android and acting as a secure hypervisor, so any Android vulnerabilities are contained. [1] https://web.archive.org/web/20120211210405/http://www.ok-labs.com/releases/release/ok-labs-software-surpasses-milestone-of-1.5-billion-mobile-device-shipments https://web.archive.org/web/20120211210405/http://www.ok-lab...