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>Those priors were obviously wrong. You're doing it again here with the passive voice. You weren't wrong, it was "Ockham's razor" and "those priors" that were
by slg 1y ago
>Those priors were obviously wrong.
You're doing it again here with the passive voice. You weren't wrong, it was "Ockham's razor" and "those priors" that were wrong.
>Do you think I shouldn't update my understanding based on new information?
Your responses here show that you aren't actually doing that. You aren't taking any responsibility for your prior incorrect assumptions and therefore you are likely to continue making similar wrong assumptions in the future. How can you learn from this experience if you can't admit that you did anything wrong?
- AlotOfReading 1y agoI don't know what you want from me. Yes, my speculation on incomplete information was wrong. That's obvious to anyone who can read. I haven't hidden it, I haven't said I was ever correct, and even in that thread I explicitly said there are two possibilities and here's the one I find more likely. Yet you're acting like I kicked a puppy and need to apologize for my moral failings. Chill, it's not a big deal. I'll probably be wrong about something else in the future too. All I can do is update my understanding and try not to make the same mistakes going forward.
- slg 1y ago>I don't know what you want from me. All I want from you is to... >update my understanding and try not to make the same mistakes going forward. The first step in that process is examining your prior mistakes so you know what not to repeat. Your comments have shown an unwillingness to do that work. You're treating this as a mistake that you just happened to fall into through no fault of your own and not a mistake caused by your own actions.
- randysalami 1y agoIt’s a bit like an LLM or any model output. I’m wrong, so what? It will happen again. Maybe humans aren’t so different after all.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- FreakLegion 1y agoBeing wrong and making a mistake are very different things. A weather forecaster, for example, can be wrong about the weather without making a mistake in forecasting it.
- slg 1y agoYes, that was the point being made. Immediately believing the authenticity of this video was not just wrong, but also a mistake. Anyone who believed it initially should take this as a lesson to learn to recalibrate their levels of naïveté/skepticism when it comes to random social media posts.
- FreakLegion 1y agoIt's the opposite of the point you want to make. This is obvious if you simplify the example to something like flipping a biased coin. If the coin will come up heads 50-eps% of the time, and tails 50+eps% of the time, then the correct prediction is tails. Tails will often be the wrong prediction, but is still the correct prediction to make. The outcome of this one event simply doesn't imply anything about the correctness of AlotOfReading's model. The model might actually be mistaken, but that's not an argument you've made.
- slg 1y ago>The outcome of this one event simply doesn't imply anything about the correctness of AlotOfReading's model. How many times would you have to burn your hand on a hot stove before you can conclude that touching it will result in a burn?
- FreakLegion 1y agoYour analogy contains a category mistake, but no doubt you'll 'examine your prior mistakes so you know what not to repeat'.
- slg 1y ago