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Then again, most people tend to form really bogus beliefs without bothering to establish any premises. They may not even be internally consistent or align meani

Then again, most people tend to form really bogus beliefs without bothering to establish any premises. They may not even be internally consistent or align meaningfully with reality. I imagine having premises and thinking it through has a better track record of reaching conclusions consistent with reality.

lmm 1y ago
> I imagine having premises and thinking it through has a better track record of reaching conclusions consistent with reality. Why do you imagine that? Have you tested it?
Viliam1234 1y ago
> I imagine having premises and thinking it through has a better track record of reaching conclusions consistent with reality. You only need to make one mistake in the entire chain of reasoning to get a wrong result. Mathematically speaking, if your total probability of making even one mistake somewhere in the chain is 50% or greater, the result is still a coinflip. Success is a combination of reducing your error rate, keeping your chains of reasoning short, and verifying the intermediate results empirically.