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This totally ignores the fact that the decline in fertility is measurable across the globe in the poorest and wealthiest nations in the world. It's clearly not

This totally ignores the fact that the decline in fertility is measurable across the globe in the poorest and wealthiest nations in the world. It's clearly not a simple matter of affordability...

seydor 1y ago
Poor countries reproduce more, it's not same everywhere https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  Look at slide 3 again ("TFR around the world").
  - seydor 1y ago
    those are not the poorest countries (e.g. no african countries are listed either)
    - toomuchtodo 1y ago
      Our World in Data: Fertility rate: births per woman - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-born-per-woman?tab=map https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-born-per-woman?t... To the surprise of demographers, African fertility is falling - https://www.mercatornet.com/to_the_surprise_of_demographers_african_fertility_is_falling https://www.mercatornet.com/to_the_surprise_of_demographers_... - September 19, 2024 > Previously in this space, under the heading “Africa Rising?” yours truly cited The Lancet’s latest population stats on sub-Saharan Africa: Sub-Saharan Africa is the world’s only region with an above-replacement total fertility rate (TFR), currently estimated from 4.3 to 4.6. They’ve gone from 8 percent of global births in 1950 to 30 percent in 2021, headed to 54 percent by century’s end. While the region’s TFR is falling fast, any sub-Saharan population contraction is at least a century out. However, according to Macrotrends, Africa’s TFR (4.1) has declined an average of 1.3 percent annually over the last three years. Should this trend persist, Africa will eventually plunge into below-replacement territory. Demographers believe fertility decline is accelerating faster than projected, especially in sub-Sahara Africa. Statista, the European aggregator of figures, projects Africa’s 2030 TFR at 3.8. Fertility rates fall as education levels rise in sub-Saharan Africa - https://www.nature.com/articles/d44148-025-00026-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/d44148-025-00026-3 - January 29th, 2025
      - seydor 1y ago
        yes those are true but the fact remains that despite the falling rate, sub-saharan TFR is 4.5, while brazil is 1.6, iran 1.7 etc. The correlation of TFR with wealth is a fact
        Acrobatic_Road 1y ago
        Brazil is 1.47, and Iran is 1.43. Both are lower than the United States. Other poor countries lower than America: Mexico, Columbia, Philippines, Thailand Source for TFRs: https://cdn.xcancel.com/pic/orig/67E402B3A81D9/media%2FGxYAq4ZX0AEdPNO.png https://cdn.xcancel.com/pic/orig/67E402B3A81D9/media%2FGxYAq... The correlation between wealth and fertility is quickly breaking down, both between countries and within (rich people have more kids, poor people have fewer).
        vonneumannstan 1y ago
        >The correlation of TFR with wealth is a fact No one is disputing that... We are talking about declining TFR RATES which are happening across the globe universally.
- chrisco255 1y ago
  The rates are plummeting everywhere. Even countries that have 3 or 4 kids per woman used to have 5 or 6 and are on pace to drop below replacement within 15-20 years.

This totally ignores the fact that the decline in fertility is measurable across the globe in the poorest and wealthiest nations in the world. It's clearly not a simple matter of affordability...

seydor 1y ago

Poor countries reproduce more, it's not same everywhere https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility

toomuchtodo 1y ago
Look at slide 3 again ("TFR around the world").
- seydor 1y ago
  those are not the poorest countries (e.g. no african countries are listed either)
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    Our World in Data: Fertility rate: births per woman - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-born-per-woman?tab=map https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-born-per-woman?t... To the surprise of demographers, African fertility is falling - https://www.mercatornet.com/to_the_surprise_of_demographers_african_fertility_is_falling https://www.mercatornet.com/to_the_surprise_of_demographers_... - September 19, 2024 > Previously in this space, under the heading “Africa Rising?” yours truly cited The Lancet’s latest population stats on sub-Saharan Africa: Sub-Saharan Africa is the world’s only region with an above-replacement total fertility rate (TFR), currently estimated from 4.3 to 4.6. They’ve gone from 8 percent of global births in 1950 to 30 percent in 2021, headed to 54 percent by century’s end. While the region’s TFR is falling fast, any sub-Saharan population contraction is at least a century out. However, according to Macrotrends, Africa’s TFR (4.1) has declined an average of 1.3 percent annually over the last three years. Should this trend persist, Africa will eventually plunge into below-replacement territory. Demographers believe fertility decline is accelerating faster than projected, especially in sub-Sahara Africa. Statista, the European aggregator of figures, projects Africa’s 2030 TFR at 3.8. Fertility rates fall as education levels rise in sub-Saharan Africa - https://www.nature.com/articles/d44148-025-00026-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/d44148-025-00026-3 - January 29th, 2025
    - seydor 1y ago
      yes those are true but the fact remains that despite the falling rate, sub-saharan TFR is 4.5, while brazil is 1.6, iran 1.7 etc. The correlation of TFR with wealth is a fact
      - Acrobatic_Road 1y ago
        Brazil is 1.47, and Iran is 1.43. Both are lower than the United States. Other poor countries lower than America: Mexico, Columbia, Philippines, Thailand Source for TFRs: https://cdn.xcancel.com/pic/orig/67E402B3A81D9/media%2FGxYAq4ZX0AEdPNO.png https://cdn.xcancel.com/pic/orig/67E402B3A81D9/media%2FGxYAq... The correlation between wealth and fertility is quickly breaking down, both between countries and within (rich people have more kids, poor people have fewer).
      - vonneumannstan 1y ago
        >The correlation of TFR with wealth is a fact No one is disputing that... We are talking about declining TFR RATES which are happening across the globe universally.
chrisco255 1y ago
The rates are plummeting everywhere. Even countries that have 3 or 4 kids per woman used to have 5 or 6 and are on pace to drop below replacement within 15-20 years.