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> Automation has already created more job opportunities, why should this be any different? This is the "the climate has changed before" argument for economics.

by xg15 1y ago

> Automation has already created more job opportunities, why should this be any different? This is the "the climate has changed before" argument for economics. > why would do that as opposed to keeping your headcount and instead offer 9 services to the public generating more streams of revenue? Because there might not be enough demand for those 9 services.

stego-tech 1y ago
Especially when companies lay off the workers that would normally consume license seats or purchase consumer goods with job wages. Funny how all these boosters bragging about automating the economy seem to conveniently forget how much of the economy, in some way, is based around headcount and consumption - both of which are going down due to AI with no replacement being pitched, almost as if that were the plan all along.
bootsmann 1y ago
> This is the "the climate has changed before" argument for economics It's really not, you cannot cause a recession by increasing productivity, money doesn't disappear.
- xg15 1y ago
  That's at least more of an argument than "it never happened before so it cannot happen in the future". Money cannot disappear, but circulation can be confined to ever-smaller segments of the economy. Let's assume a world in which AI is good enough to do 90% if all white-collar jobs and companies have replaced positions with AI accordingly. Then the amount of money that entered the wider economy through salaries will now stay locked up in B2B transactions between AI companies, their corporate customers and their contractors. How will all the laid-off people get money? Some would probably get into blue-collar work, others will try their hand starting a business (that will also compete with AI), but all of them? What will happen to the businesses that were relying on those employees as customers?
  - shivasaxena 1y ago
    > Some would probably get into blue-collar work, others will try their hand starting a business (that will also compete with AI), but all of them? Yes, that's exactly what will happen and you can even now see examples of unemployed software engineer building successful one-man gigs with the help of AI(not competing). I think the concept of stable long term jobs as we knew is gone. Which might not be a bad thing.
jayd16 1y ago
Total demand is a different department, no? I think it's a very different question to ask "how would this create jobs" and "will this create jobs...in today's market."

by xg15 1y ago

stego-tech 1y ago

Especially when companies lay off the workers that would normally consume license seats or purchase consumer goods with job wages. Funny how all these boosters bragging about automating the economy seem to conveniently forget how much of the economy, in some way, is based around headcount and consumption - both of which are going down due to AI with no replacement being pitched, almost as if that were the plan all along.

bootsmann 1y ago

> This is the "the climate has changed before" argument for economics It's really not, you cannot cause a recession by increasing productivity, money doesn't disappear.

xg15 1y ago
That's at least more of an argument than "it never happened before so it cannot happen in the future". Money cannot disappear, but circulation can be confined to ever-smaller segments of the economy. Let's assume a world in which AI is good enough to do 90% if all white-collar jobs and companies have replaced positions with AI accordingly. Then the amount of money that entered the wider economy through salaries will now stay locked up in B2B transactions between AI companies, their corporate customers and their contractors. How will all the laid-off people get money? Some would probably get into blue-collar work, others will try their hand starting a business (that will also compete with AI), but all of them? What will happen to the businesses that were relying on those employees as customers?
- shivasaxena 1y ago
  > Some would probably get into blue-collar work, others will try their hand starting a business (that will also compete with AI), but all of them? Yes, that's exactly what will happen and you can even now see examples of unemployed software engineer building successful one-man gigs with the help of AI(not competing). I think the concept of stable long term jobs as we knew is gone. Which might not be a bad thing.

jayd16 1y ago

Total demand is a different department, no? I think it's a very different question to ask "how would this create jobs" and "will this create jobs...in today's market."