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Much of what was automated is physical labor which allowed workers to move into "service/intellectual" jobs. When tractors and dump trucks removed the need for

Much of what was automated is physical labor which allowed workers to move into "service/intellectual" jobs. When tractors and dump trucks removed the need for masses of people to move dirt, it didn't create more jobs of moving dirt around since those jobs could also be tackled by more tractors and dump trucks. If AI is what all these "AI evangelicals" claim, then most intellectual jobs would be gone. And it won't create more service/intellectual jobs for humans because whatever new jobs are created would be tackled by AI. > If you're a business that offers 3 services to the public and "AI" could automate one person's salary out of your payroll, why would do that as opposed to keeping your headcount and instead offer 9 services to the public generating more streams of revenue? If AI could automate one person's job, why would you keep him? You can offer 9 services with one less person.

robertlagrant 1y ago
> When tractors and dump trucks removed the need for masses of people to move dirt, it didn't create more jobs of moving dirt around since those jobs could also be tackled by more tractors and dump trucks It created dump truck driver / maintenance / engineer / safety / fuel supply / parts factoring / etc jobs. I wouldn't say that's an example of creating zero jobs.
- hearsathought 1y ago
  > It created dump truck driver / maintenance / engineer / safety / fuel supply / parts factoring / etc jobs. Those are primarily intellectual/service jobs. > I wouldn't say that's an example of creating zero jobs. I never said it didn't create zero jobs. Reread my comment. I said it created more intellectual/service jobs. It's the first line of my comment.
  - robertlagrant 1y ago
    True, but it's confusing. The comment you were replying to said this: > Automation has already created more job opportunities, why should this be any different? Jobs don't go away, they just transform Which seemed to be what you're arguing against at the same time.
bryanlarsen 1y ago
Moving dirt around is an input into many other things. Because moving dirt around is now cheap, we now build a lot more and a lot better roads than we did when moving dirt had to be done with human / animal labor. That road system directly and indirectly created millions of jobs. Similarly, software is a crucial input to pretty much everything in modern society. More / better software would create tons of new jobs. I'm not so sure that more worse software will create those jobs though, and that seems to be the direction we're moving with AI.
- hearsathought 1y ago
  > we now build a lot more and a lot better roads than we did when moving dirt had to be done with human / animal labor. Sure, with far less human labor. That's my point. > That road system directly and indirectly created millions of jobs. Yes. That's my point. It created millions of service/intellectual jobs. Or are you saying the highway system created more jobs for those who own shovels? If people moved from physical to intellectual labor in the past century. What will people move into if intellectual work is mostly done by AI. Assuming that the AI the evangelicals promise comes to fruition.

robertlagrant 1y ago

> When tractors and dump trucks removed the need for masses of people to move dirt, it didn't create more jobs of moving dirt around since those jobs could also be tackled by more tractors and dump trucks It created dump truck driver / maintenance / engineer / safety / fuel supply / parts factoring / etc jobs. I wouldn't say that's an example of creating zero jobs.

hearsathought 1y ago
> It created dump truck driver / maintenance / engineer / safety / fuel supply / parts factoring / etc jobs. Those are primarily intellectual/service jobs. > I wouldn't say that's an example of creating zero jobs. I never said it didn't create zero jobs. Reread my comment. I said it created more intellectual/service jobs. It's the first line of my comment.
- robertlagrant 1y ago
  True, but it's confusing. The comment you were replying to said this: > Automation has already created more job opportunities, why should this be any different? Jobs don't go away, they just transform Which seemed to be what you're arguing against at the same time.

bryanlarsen 1y ago

Moving dirt around is an input into many other things. Because moving dirt around is now cheap, we now build a lot more and a lot better roads than we did when moving dirt had to be done with human / animal labor. That road system directly and indirectly created millions of jobs. Similarly, software is a crucial input to pretty much everything in modern society. More / better software would create tons of new jobs. I'm not so sure that more worse software will create those jobs though, and that seems to be the direction we're moving with AI.

hearsathought 1y ago
> we now build a lot more and a lot better roads than we did when moving dirt had to be done with human / animal labor. Sure, with far less human labor. That's my point. > That road system directly and indirectly created millions of jobs. Yes. That's my point. It created millions of service/intellectual jobs. Or are you saying the highway system created more jobs for those who own shovels? If people moved from physical to intellectual labor in the past century. What will people move into if intellectual work is mostly done by AI. Assuming that the AI the evangelicals promise comes to fruition.